I don't know about the asylum, but whatever Wagner did, it is not a Coup. Coups don't start 700 kilometres from power centre. It starts by hitting power centre as an opening act. It is a mutiny at best. Or, more likely, negotiations. Between holding 'em and folding 'em there is rasing stakes which maybe just didn't rime for Mr. Rogers.
I don't think it was a coup either, I think it was a way for Prigozhin to force Moscow's hand to pay him. They "suddenly" found about $100m outside his offices in St. Petersburg the day he announced his pullback? I don't think that was a coincidence.
I hate to digress but I blame it all on you and your insane ability to dissect info like a champ...
I was surprised to see a picture of nicolae ceausescu dying of lead poisoning... but... I remembered that no one managed to video or take a photo because it all happened too quick. I did not dig enough to know the origin of the picture. The actual place of death (marked at the actual place of death) was in front of a man hole. The picture you have does not have a man hole. Also Mrs Ceausescu hair want black but grey to brown.
As for Putin, I don't think he'll run. He would sign over the presidency to a crony then be pardoned.
Vlad could just as easily vanish without a trace like the Romanovs did. Not much would stop Belarus giving him up or making him disappear if a vengeful government took over. Even a new government would have great affect on Belarus given their political and economic dependence on Russia. Saudi Arabia or a dirt nap in my opinion.
Eritrea is an efficiently run despotism and largely supportive of Russia. However, like for any Russia linked country, as indicated above, hosting Putin might severely annoy a new Russian leadership, and the logistics of getting there militate against it.
So, I am rather upset to find that rumors are going around that Putin threatened to kill the families of anyone involved in this coup. That's cold blooded North Korea crap. I kept wondering, "things are going well, so why are they stopping? Surely they had a plan?" I forgot the one thing that would stop most soldiers, your family is being held hostage. If Putin had killed the wives and children of the Wagner group, would that have upset the world or would everyone be fine with it? I know he was in danger of losing power, but Putin killing children, would Russia itself even feel comfortable with Putin in power if this became publicly known? Also, it shows the lengths Putin will go to, to stay in power. I know North Korea has the three generation rule, with children being born and raised in prisons because someone in the family pissed off Kim. It's one reason I feel that praising the Kim family or claiming to have a good relationship with him, is just wrong. He crosses a line that everyone should agree is a bad one. We may be split on a lot of things, but Kim and Putin going after civilians is one that should bring us together. Smart move on Putin's part? Or if he went through with it, a war crime unlike any other in recent history. (
Ryan, should there be another metric for the stability of the host nation. It wouldn't make any sense to go to Belarus if there was a change the political environment might change. After Ukraine wins, I would expect there would lots of forces trying to get Belarus to flip as well.
There is an "election" in Russia next year. I expect Prigozhin to run in absentia from Belarus. 2024 presents the FSB with an opportunity to change leaders. Lukashenko has his own ambitions as well. I don't think Putin will want to camp out with his rival for power in the CSTO.
I don't think there is a chance in hell Prigozhin runs for President in 2024. This was just a way to extort Moscow for money. And it worked, they literally found two trucks full of rubles outside his offices.
Didn’t Prigozhin seek asylum in Belarus after calling his forces off? That kind of rules out Belarus. Did Russia ever move those nukes to Belarus? That might be in issue…
Switzerland is the place to be. They are neutral, love money and have a long history of being in the market for spies, murky industrialists and honoring distasteful agreements.
When law abiding journalists are persecuted for letting the world know the inconvenient truth about Iraq and Afghanistan and no western government is prepared to challenge US dogma, surely a murdering bastard like putin should have no place to hide.
What an incredible picture that is of the very poignant end of a ruthless dictator in Romania. I’m interested to see how this plays out. I think he’ll go down fighting. It’s his way.
Conveniently, Putin has had his "Chef" re-located to Belarus....
I don't know about the asylum, but whatever Wagner did, it is not a Coup. Coups don't start 700 kilometres from power centre. It starts by hitting power centre as an opening act. It is a mutiny at best. Or, more likely, negotiations. Between holding 'em and folding 'em there is rasing stakes which maybe just didn't rime for Mr. Rogers.
I don't think it was a coup either, I think it was a way for Prigozhin to force Moscow's hand to pay him. They "suddenly" found about $100m outside his offices in St. Petersburg the day he announced his pullback? I don't think that was a coincidence.
I hate to digress but I blame it all on you and your insane ability to dissect info like a champ...
I was surprised to see a picture of nicolae ceausescu dying of lead poisoning... but... I remembered that no one managed to video or take a photo because it all happened too quick. I did not dig enough to know the origin of the picture. The actual place of death (marked at the actual place of death) was in front of a man hole. The picture you have does not have a man hole. Also Mrs Ceausescu hair want black but grey to brown.
As for Putin, I don't think he'll run. He would sign over the presidency to a crony then be pardoned.
Vlad could just as easily vanish without a trace like the Romanovs did. Not much would stop Belarus giving him up or making him disappear if a vengeful government took over. Even a new government would have great affect on Belarus given their political and economic dependence on Russia. Saudi Arabia or a dirt nap in my opinion.
Eritrea is an efficiently run despotism and largely supportive of Russia. However, like for any Russia linked country, as indicated above, hosting Putin might severely annoy a new Russian leadership, and the logistics of getting there militate against it.
So, I am rather upset to find that rumors are going around that Putin threatened to kill the families of anyone involved in this coup. That's cold blooded North Korea crap. I kept wondering, "things are going well, so why are they stopping? Surely they had a plan?" I forgot the one thing that would stop most soldiers, your family is being held hostage. If Putin had killed the wives and children of the Wagner group, would that have upset the world or would everyone be fine with it? I know he was in danger of losing power, but Putin killing children, would Russia itself even feel comfortable with Putin in power if this became publicly known? Also, it shows the lengths Putin will go to, to stay in power. I know North Korea has the three generation rule, with children being born and raised in prisons because someone in the family pissed off Kim. It's one reason I feel that praising the Kim family or claiming to have a good relationship with him, is just wrong. He crosses a line that everyone should agree is a bad one. We may be split on a lot of things, but Kim and Putin going after civilians is one that should bring us together. Smart move on Putin's part? Or if he went through with it, a war crime unlike any other in recent history. (
Ryan, should there be another metric for the stability of the host nation. It wouldn't make any sense to go to Belarus if there was a change the political environment might change. After Ukraine wins, I would expect there would lots of forces trying to get Belarus to flip as well.
There is an "election" in Russia next year. I expect Prigozhin to run in absentia from Belarus. 2024 presents the FSB with an opportunity to change leaders. Lukashenko has his own ambitions as well. I don't think Putin will want to camp out with his rival for power in the CSTO.
I don't think there is a chance in hell Prigozhin runs for President in 2024. This was just a way to extort Moscow for money. And it worked, they literally found two trucks full of rubles outside his offices.
Mercenary motivations? IN A MERCENARY?? Nooo
That’s presuming Prigozhin’s still alive in 2024.
He should have a Geiger counter handy whenever he drinks tea
Didn’t Prigozhin seek asylum in Belarus after calling his forces off? That kind of rules out Belarus. Did Russia ever move those nukes to Belarus? That might be in issue…
To appeal to your math side, how does the onion of survivability overlay the current dynamics?
Switzerland is the place to be. They are neutral, love money and have a long history of being in the market for spies, murky industrialists and honoring distasteful agreements.
How about Kaliningrad? Stalin could become king there...
When law abiding journalists are persecuted for letting the world know the inconvenient truth about Iraq and Afghanistan and no western government is prepared to challenge US dogma, surely a murdering bastard like putin should have no place to hide.
What an incredible picture that is of the very poignant end of a ruthless dictator in Romania. I’m interested to see how this plays out. I think he’ll go down fighting. It’s his way.