Where Would Vladimir Putin Seek Asylum?
Speculating on Possible Safe Havens for Putin in the Event of Political Upheaval
You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away and know when to run-Kenny Rogers, The Gambler
The Wagner Coup June 23th, 2023 to June 24th, 2023 was a whirlwind of political posturing. Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, a Russian Private Military Contractor, occupied the crucial Russian logistical city of Rostov-on-Don and sent his forces on a thunder run up the M4 highway toward Moscow.
And then they stopped.
We don’t actually know what happened next or what deals were struck, and as of Sunday, June 25th, the status of the Wagner PMC and of its Chief, Prigozhin, remains unclear.
But this article isn’t about internal Russian politics. It’s about what happens when a political leader decides that the internal situation is untenable and they need to flee the country.
What just happened in this high-stakes game of political poker may have been Prigozhin realizing that his political hand wasn’t as strong as he thought, so he folded. But that doesn’t mean that he left the table.
But for President Putin, he may be wise to take The Gambler’s other bit of advice:
Loss of power is incredibly dangerous for dictators. Nicolae Ceausescu had led Romania as a dictator since 1967. On Christmas Day in 1989 as the Romanian Revolution swirled around them, Nicole and his wife Elena, were caught by Romanian soldiers in Târgoviște. After a one hour summary trial by a military tribunal, the pair was tried was lined up against an Army barracks toilet and shot.
The story of Ferdinand Marcos, the dictator of The Philippines is somewhat different.
President Ferdinand Marcos ran The Philippines for roughly 20 years and enjoyed close relations with the US, who considered him a staunch military ally and champion of anti-communism. While running the country under martial law from 1972 until 1981, thousands of opposition leaders were killed or imprisoned. In 1986 a heavily manipulated snap election proved too much for the people of The Philippines, and the United States offered President Marcos a one-way ticket to Hawaii for him, his family and 22 crates of cash valued at $717 million dollars.
If you were President Putin, which fate works out better for you?
But certain factors come into play when choosing where to go when you flee.
Can you reach asylum?
Will the country accept you?
Will the country protect you?
And choosing where to flee is also needs to be weighed with the reasons why countries host ousted dictators.
A country may provide asylum to a dictator on humanitarian grounds or religious grounds. This is ideal.
A country may also provide sanctuary due to historical or colonial ties, especially if the dictator protected the host nations interests while in power. This sends signals to other dictators that there will always be a haven for them if they operate in the host country’s best interests. This isn’t ideal, since there may be restrictions on activities placed on the former dictator.
A country may use a former dictator as a bargaining chip on the international stage or with the new regime in the country the dictator. This host nation is the last resort.
I developed an Asylum Rubric to try to determine the most likely host country for a possible escape from Russia. This Rubric and the associated Power Point is available for download here.
In this case 3,2,1 relate to high, medium and low likelihood and the reason why a country would offer asylum with 3 being humanitarian grounds and 1 being bargaining chip grounds.
Belarus: Belarus has a history of providing refuge to leaders facing political upheavel. Former Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych sought shelter in Belarus.. While Belarusians are not Russian, the two countries share economic, cultural and linguistic ties. Belarus is the easiest country to access, however, Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko may be in ill health and the political situation for President Putin may be tenuous if President Lukashenko loses power.
Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia has been known to provide refuge to several deposed leaders, including former Ugandan dictator Idi Amin and former Tunisian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. These two countries share economic interests in energy, infrastructure and agriculture. Saudi Arabia is a monarchy, so there would be no significant internal threat to King Salman. Islam also has a long tradition of guest rite leading back to Hadith 15: “let him who believes in Allah and the Last Day be generous to his neighbor, and let him who believes in Allah and the Last Day be generous to his guest." However, travel to Saudi Arabia may be complicated since any flight from Moscow would have to travel over Turkey or Iran.
United Arab Emirates: The United Arab Emirates has granted asylum to a number of deposed leaders, such as former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Russia has relations with the UAE in the sectors of energy, infrastructure development, tourism, and defense. The UAE is an authoritarian state with seven constituent monarchies are led by tribal rulers. They suffer the same geographical limitations as Saudi Arabia and the tribal monarchies may not necessarily present a united coalition.
Zimbabwe: In 2017, Zimbabwe granted asylum to former Gambian President Yahya Jammeh after he was forced to step down from power. There have been trade agreements and investments in sectors such as mining, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure. Russian companies have shown interest in Zimbabwe's mineral resources, including platinum and diamonds. However, it may be difficult to get to and Zimbabwe is still experiencing hyperinflation and political stability. A deposed President Putin may be used as a bargaining chip for better terms on mining rights or economic aid.
Venezuela: While Venezuela has never provided asylum for a dictator, Russia has intimate ties with the country. Russia has invested in Venezuela's energy sector, particularly in the oil industry, through joint ventures and cooperation agreements. Russian companies have been involved in oil exploration, production, and infrastructure projects in Venezuela. Russia has expressed political support for the Venezuelan government amid its domestic challenges and international criticism. Russia has also provided humanitarian aid and assistance to Venezuela, particularly during times of economic and social crises. One could imagine Venezuela offering asylum simply to anger the United States. However, Venezuela is difficult to reach, and they are a member of the International Criminal Court. The ICC has an arrest warrant for President Putin for the unlawful deportation of children during the war in Ukraine. This raises the possibility of Venezuela turning the Russian President into the ICC for trial.
Cuba: Cuba's policy of granting asylum has not been limited to dictators. The country has also provided refuge to various political dissidents, activists, and individuals fleeing political persecution such as Assata Shakur and Charles Lee Hill. The specific circumstances surrounding each case can vary, and Cuba's willingness to provide asylum is often driven by political considerations and its foreign policy objectives. Russia and Cuba have enjoyed close ties since the Cold War. Although the level of economic support has diminished, Russian naval vessels have occasionally visited Cuban ports. Russia trades with Cuba in the sectors of energy, machinery, and transportation, including commercial aircraft. Much like Venezuela, Cuba might accept President Putin if the country thought it was a political win over the United States, however, it may be difficult to reach by aircraft.
Serbia: Although Serbs are not Russians, Russia and Serbia share historical and cultural connections, rooted in Slavic traditions and the shared Orthodox Christian faith. There is a sense of affinity and mutual understanding between the two nations based on historical and cultural similarities. Russia has refused to recognize Kosovo's independence, aligning with Serbia's position that considers Kosovo an integral part of its territory. which is a very popular position in Serbia. However, Serbia is surrounded by NATO members and may be difficult to enter. Serbia is also a member if the International Criminal Court.
North Korea: Russia has a complex history with North Korea. While Russia has supported North Korea in the past, they are wary of the instability brought by North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program. Trade between the two countries has increased, primarily in sectors such as energy, transportation, and labor. Russia has pursued projects involving infrastructure development, including railway connections and port facilities, aimed at facilitating trade with North Korea. North Korea can be accessed by air from Russia. However, North Korea is essentially a criminal enterprise masquerading as a country, and it is hard to imagine how this may benefit Kim Jong Un.
Syria: Russia has been a major supporter of the Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, particularly during the ongoing Syrian Civil War. Russia has provided significant military assistance to Syria, including arms, equipment, and training. It has also maintained a military presence in the country during their common fight against ISIS. However, there is extreme political instability in Syria and difficulty of access without flying over Europe or Türkiye. The likelihood that Syria would return President Putin to Russia may be greater if a new Russian government demanded Putin’s return in exchange for further military support. It may also be dangerous for President Putin to remain in a country that has a significant Russian military presence whose loyalty may be to the new leaders of Russia.
People’s Republic of China: While Russia and China have had a cooperative relationship in recent years, it is difficult to see the likelihood of Putin seeking refuge in China. Simply put, China is always going to do what’s best for China. If China sees no advantage in offering President Putin asylum, they just won’t do it. China might also offer asylum to use President Putin as a bargaining chip in improve relations with Russia’s new government, Europe or the United States.
Based on the Rubrics, I see two possible scenarios for President Putin leaving power:
Coup
Voluntary resignation
I don’t do politics, but I’m pretty good at math. Ultimately, this is speculation, but with a mathematical foundation. Exactly where President Putin would seek refuge is shrouded in uncertainty, but if we use the IDC 203 Analytic standards…
We probably can narrow it down to Belarus in the case of a coup or Saudi Arabia in the case of voluntary resignation with a confidence of likely.
Conveniently, Putin has had his "Chef" re-located to Belarus....
I don't know about the asylum, but whatever Wagner did, it is not a Coup. Coups don't start 700 kilometres from power centre. It starts by hitting power centre as an opening act. It is a mutiny at best. Or, more likely, negotiations. Between holding 'em and folding 'em there is rasing stakes which maybe just didn't rime for Mr. Rogers.