23 Comments
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James Watson's avatar

Damn...green...M&M's

The question as to why is it dangerous for Iran to have that? Really? Religious fanatics and nuclear weapons? REALLY!!?

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Robert Gardner's avatar

Great post as usual Ryan. I feel though, that I would be remiss if I did not point out that you have made a complex and terrible process seem easy and fun and left out all the unfortunate stuff that happens when these things actually get used on human beings, as we saw in the attacks on the Japanese cities at the end of World War II.

I know this was not your mission, but still…

The politics of this Iranian effort is also very complicated but as someone who has spent a lot of time in Iran (and I know you have Iranian readers) I am deeply saddened to see this war come to Iran. Everybody there is not a mullah and a lot of people will suffer if the war expands, as it probably will.

But this is still a great post.

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Jeff Zekas's avatar

If Mexico attacked America at a festival, took hostages, raped women, and murdered other people, we would consider that unacceptable and we would fight back. So the Israelis had their people attacked and taken hostage, they did not start this war, they were defending themselves and trying to repatriate their citizens. America’s done a lot of dumb things don’t get me wrong, and Vietnam comes to mind. On the other hand, there are truly evil people in this world, and the Ayatollah has said many times that he wants to kill anyone who is not a Muslim, you can find tapes of it on YouTube. These are dangerous fanatics, and they would actually use a nuclear weapon, so we must consider it seriously unacceptable for them to have nukes.

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Robert Gardner's avatar

No one could deny how brutal and murderous the attacks of October 7th were. But they need to be seen in context of the history of the region. Approximately 1200 Israeli’s were killed in that assault by Hamas, for instance, a figure often quoted to indicate the savagery of the event. But 2,000 Palestinians were killed in the Second Intifada, a fact rarely brought forward in comparison. October 7th did not happen in a vacuum, as awful and tragic as it was. I will not recount the entire history of the Arab/Jewish conflict, about which many books have been written, but suffice it to say it is neither simple nor morally clear. To condemn an entire population to war because you feel the leadership is objectionable, or dangerous is foolish and cruel in the extreme, since the world is filled with countries whose leadership is objectionable, or dangerous, including the current leadership of the United States. Israel has a history of preemptive wars, and it has never brought them peace.

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Jeff Zekas's avatar

Every Iranian is not a mullah just like every German was not a nazzi in 1935, but we beat the Germans before they could get nukes because otherwise the world would have been doomed. At least, that’s the message of Oppenheimer.

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Robert Gardner's avatar

I must point out that this is a very different world than 1935 and the Nazi analogy is so simplistic as to render it useless. I am not saying the Iranian regime is not dangerous, but I am suggesting that wars in this part of the world have shown themselves to be ultimately counter-productive from the point of view of American interests and devastating to the lives of the people in the region. It is also worth mentioning that the Israeli's, who brought us the war in Gaza in all its limitless cruelty are probably not the best partners in a venture like this.

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Alex Storrs's avatar

Interesting that you would choose the orange and green m&ms for uranium, and the green for the “explodey” U235, as these are the colors of the Irish flag… ;)

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Ryan McBeth's avatar

And also, when you think of uranium you think of green

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Jeffrey Gibberman's avatar

I think yellow. LOL

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Ryan McBeth's avatar

You know, I didn’t even think of that until he mentioned it. I’m not sure why I picked orange and green. I guess because they’re on opposite side of the spectrum and they’re easy to identify.

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BO's avatar

And, you don't think it had anything to do with jumping in front of donny, the lyin' king, trying to hog the glory with a fake peace deal? COME ON, man. Do better.

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Mark Carli's avatar

Most media say, "Iran was nowhere near having a bomb". I think I will take your stated view.

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Rockjaw's avatar

Nice and concise explanation of the “mushrooming” progress that was likely taking place (pun intended)… Now what about those centrifuges deep inside that mountain bunker facility? Surprised that w/ how crafty the Israelis are, that they didn’t already acquire the “bunker buster bombs” and a means to deliver same ?

The corp press is saying the bunker busters that the USofA has are so big that they can only delivered by the stealth bomber… so will the USofA loan a few to Israel so they can finish what they’ve started?

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Jeffrey Gibberman's avatar

Love the M&Ms. I guess she's your fantasy girl. Great vid, again.

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James Jordan's avatar

Thse other though the initial attack being on the bright night is that they had the advantage of surprise. Now the Iranian military is more alert they have a long period where they hold the advantage.

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Jeffrey Gibberman's avatar

What advantage? Most if not all of Iran's radar is down as well as their SAMs. The Mossad has very well-hidden manpower on the ground. Trump sates "control of the skies over Iran". I do not see an Iranian advantage. I am sure I missed more.

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James Jordan's avatar

By advantage I was thinking very tactical. The first night would have the most surprise which would offset the better vision brought by moonlight but as it got darker, and the Iranian air defence would be more heighten, the dark would support the Israelis. But as you not the air defence is effectively gone.

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John 2's avatar

I thought this was a great explanation. Well done.

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Michael Nistler's avatar

Since Israel had had nukes for 50+ years and now has near 100 in its arsenal, it makes one wonder what their true intentions are when they take action to prevent Iran from joining the club. Seems an oddity that the US allowed North Korea to build an arsenal of 50 nukes and counting...

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Stephen's avatar

So how much enriched uranium does Iran have?

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Jon's avatar

Ryan, is it reasonable to assume that Israel and the Ukrainians are collaborating given a shared enemy in Iran and the similarly of means and execution of 'Spider Web and the Israeli strike?

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Richard Kudrna's avatar

Now do the Thorium transuranics to fission fuel.

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Claymore's avatar

Broke it down for us Barney style 🦖

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