148 Comments

Ryan, I’ve followed your analysis of the Russian war on Ukraine for the past years. You’ve done your best to see the positive side of the Trump presidency. You’ve tried to bridge the gap and follow a middle line to try to bring both sides with you, but there comes a time to face a horrible fact . DJT is all in with Putin. 😢

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I think trump is hyper focused on the money aspect of Govt. and taking little consideration into the diplomacy side of things. It is like his mindset is "we have no friends, only countries that can help us lower our debt and countries that can help increase it and we want none of the latter" but in the game of global politics sometimes good diplomacy at expense now is more beneficial for us in the long run. I still have a hard time believing Trump doesn't grasp that concept but he sure is acting like it.

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NOPE. He's been bought and PAID to destroy every facet of the US, from NOAA to NATO.

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I see an ever increasing fallacy in which people assign motives to political figures that are black-and-white, often driven by strong emotion rather than nuanced understanding. But, while easier, that overlooks the complexities of decision-making, personal beliefs, and the multifaceted nature of leadership.

It's crucial to recognize that individuals, even those in positions of power, operate within a complex web of influences, pressures, and constraints. Their actions and decisions are rarely as straightforward as they may appear from the outside. By attributing malicious intent, we not only oversimplify the situation but also miss opportunities for constructive dialogue and understanding.

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I don't think so yet.

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ok

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There are many inconsistencies with this theory. Take for example. When Obama was President he provided zero lethal military aid to Ukraine despite the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine on two fronts.

Trump provided javelin missiles and other lethal aid in 2017.

Make it make sense.

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Yes, you've got a point.

But tell me, with 100% certainty, that this DOESN'T make sense:

He provided those weapons in 2017 because he got the Ukrainians to rent a whole lot of rooms at a Trump property

Objectively, simply, this is the most likely explanation for Trump's actions/decisions. Always.

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I think it's important to move on from the Adam Schiff view of Donald Trump. Because it's inaccurate.

There are many parts of this characterization that are based in reality. Trump is petty and self centered. But the take that Trump is a sock puppet to Putin and an evil megalomaniac is false.

I once believed in this take on Trump as well.

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Trump doesn’t like that Zelenskyy refused to make up bogus things about Biden. This is payback because Trump is a complete moron who can’t understand anyone who won’t do what he wants.

He has gone his entire life without consequences and will get away with even more. The people who elected him deserve 10x any hardship that they get.

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It's cruel to say that large swaths of the population deserve hardships. That's the same attitude that leads to unneeded war, genocide, and other acts of evil.

There are plenty of disagreements to be had in this world but lets not wish malice on others.

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Go and tell that to Rob Kehn or Scott who are also in this discussion.

I'll happily wish misfortune and severe consequences on those who set out to hurt others for no reason. We need to call out fascists and there needs to be consequences for actions.

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The people who didnt elect him also deserve 10x the hardship that they get.

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That literally makes absolutely no sense. You are saying that everyone should be punished. WTF?

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2dEdited

I was just talking to my dad, an avid Trump and Ukraine supporter, about this today.

I told him the problem is he thinks that Trump has Ukraine's best interest at heart, but really Trump admires dictators and thinks democratically elected politicians are simps.

This idea just did not compute for him, since it would basically force him to confront the contradiction between his values (democracy, liberty, rule of law) and his identity (staunchly right wing).

I explained that I read the same thing happening to a small number of Chavismo holdouts in Maduro-era Venezuela, who absolutely could not believe that their failing country was due to anything but Yankee imperialism. Thus this phenomenon occurs regardless of which side of the aisle you're on.

Anyway, I think you have the same problem, trying really hard to twist yourself into mental contortions to avoid the obvious truth.

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It looks like DJT is not republican at all.

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I still think he's trying to out play them. Do I like all of his choices? No. I'm liking a bunch of them, though.

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"Remember, the house always wins." - unless the house is owned by Trump, who managed to bankrupt casinos. Is there a value, in his "read" of a corrupt gambler?

Listen, people, I'm REALLY sick and tired of this smartwashing of people you elect for president. "Why did the president say what he said - well that's kind of a tough one."

NO IT FUCKING ISN'T!!! HE'S A FUCKING MORON WHO HAS NO CLUE WHAT THE FUCK HE'S DOING.

There is no fucking point in trying to analyse the 3d chess the likes of Dubya Bush and Trump are playing, because they FUCKING AREN'T! Their actions seem mysterious because they ARE mysterious to THEMSELVES. Because, I'm repeating myself, they DON'T KNOW WHAT THE FUCK THEY ARE DOING!!!

If it walks like a fucking moron, and quacks like a racist, and pardons traitors convicted for trying to do a fascist coup of your own nation, it is a fucking stupid fascist dictator wannabe! Don't try to be smart about something or somebody stupid, because all that happens is that you end up being stupid. Why did he lie about Zelenskyy? Because he has shit for brains, that's why. Yes, the emperor IS FUCKING NAKED.

That is ALL on you. You are all to blame for your stupid political system (https://substack.com/home/post/p-151228897). You must limit the powers of president so he can't flip the country's position by 180° by a stroke of a pen, just because a couple idiotic yokels from bumfuck-nowhere think that a New York bullshit artist cares about them. You must remove the powers of pardon from presidents, so they can't have people do ILLEGAL things on their behalf. You must remove the immunity of the president. You must elect a broader basis for policy decisions. You can't just let one phantastically stupid and vain self-absorbed fecker fuck up decades of policy, position, alliance buliding and commitments.

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100% mate.

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Trump is NOT playing 3D chess. He was PAID to destroy the US, and that's what he's doing. He's stayed bought.

The economy, our governmental systems (FEMA, NOAA, SNAP, Medicare and Medicaid), our natural resources, the rule of law, our 'soft power' (WHO, NATO, alliances) our polity and peace of mind, ALL OF IT

He will destroy our military (Pete Hegseth, seriously?) and dismantle NATO. WAIT.

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Agree. Hate to, but agree

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Too late.

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Smartwashing - on point.

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And also this. Tactfully put, sir. I emphatically agree.

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Thank you. You said this so much more eloquently than I did. #facts

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I think the truth may be much simpler.

Trump is a egomaniacal narcissist. And every time people tell him he's wrong or criticize him, he gets defensive and fighty. EU has not learned this lesson, Ukraine either. Russia on the other hand DID! They compliment him all the time and use simple language around him. And he responds.

Trump does not care about people, he does not care about law, he does not care about truth. In his eyes he is an immortal absolutist. He needs cheers, applause and a lot of compliments - it's that easy.

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Trump is NOT playing 3D chess. He was PAID to destroy the US, and that's what he's doing. He's stayed bought.

He will destroy our military (Pete Hegseth, seriously?) and dismantle NATO. Wait.

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I would counter that Putin’s control of the Russian information space means that he can make all these fawning remarks about Trump, because he can influence how they will be reported. While European leaders are clearly prepared to eat a certain amount of dirt to try to massage Trump’s oh so fragile ego, they cannot allow Russian mis/disinformation to become accepted as truth, even if it means offending the Orange Monstrosity.

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Zelenskyy tried to be obsequious at first, but he was screwed because he didn't play ball with Trump on the Hunter Biden mess. This is retribution. The EU needs a Churchill figure to stand up to Putin/Trump and save Ukraine.

Putin is playing Trump like a fiddle. He will get Trump to save the Russian economy, and Trump will probably boast about it.

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>>"but he was screwed because he didn't play ball with Trump on the Hunter Biden mess."

Trump never, ever forgets a grudge. Remember John McCain? Trump badmouthed him because McCain blocked a crooked real estate deal that included millions in government financing 30 years before, and Trump never forgot it. Now Trump has a two-fer. Zelensky refusing to fabricate a scandal on Biden, and he also recently told Trump "no" when Trump demanded $500 billion in mineral rights to keep the USA backing Ukraine. After Zelensky said "no" Trump started spouting Russian propaganda and kissing up to Putin.

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We could use someone like John McCain right about now!

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Also this.

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This.

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Ryan, I know it's tough, but you need to realize you were wrong about trump and that it has led to absolute catastrophe. Being "non-political" is a quaint notion but in reality all it means is that you're washing your hands of the responsibility all American's have to keep our country from becoming what it's clearly becoming. The middle of the road types are just as responsible for this as the hardcore trumpers. Reality isn't "middle of the road", there is just the truth and our attempts to understand it, and the truth doesnt give a shit about being "fair and balanced". You were so caught up in being "non-political" that you, and millions like you who helped elect the man by cutting him slack he didnt deserve, didn't see the writing on the wall when you absolutely should have.

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It does my head in that the US elected this moron and obvious criminal. I agree that too many give him the benefit of the doubt. We in the rest of the world will never trust the US again.

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Unfortunately we can't have a do-over, the damage has already been done. All we can do now is our best to fight against it and learn from our mistakes if we're going to have even a snowball's chance in hell of surviving this as a nation. It hurts to hear that the free world doesn't trust us anymore, but it is totally understandable. Just know that there are many Americans who are still with you, saw this coming, and we are not out of the fight yet, regardless of how it may seem.

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Trust once lost is very difficult to regain.

I don’t have any confidence that the US will come out of this in my lifetime.

It’s not as if what is happening wasn’t obvious - they even wrote down what they would do and you still voted for it.

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@Mark E And now they’re acting surprised.

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@William Carr Why did Trump voters not learn their lesson the first time. What makes you think they’ll learn it a second time? All the actions Trump has taken the past 4 weeks were foreshadowed in his first administration and his third presidential campaign. Now the damage will hit his supporters in their pocketbooks and wallets. Hopefully it won’t send their children to war. Make no mistakes, it’s not just the libs he’s owning.

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I didnt say they would, and you would have to ask them I dont know how those morons think. But the American people aren't a monolith, we didn't all vote for the man. There are lots of people who kinda straddle the fence and just vote on what they've been led to believe are their short term interests and are easily influenced/gullible but there is also an entire half of the country that has always fought against this and we are not going to throw in the towel now that's for damn sure.

Edit: trump running for a 3rd term would literally start a 2nd civil war. People aren't just going to go along with that.

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Agreed. Hopefully they’ll refer to the constitution a couple more times before somebody lets him run again. Although he could pull a Putin/Medvedev and run for vice president instead. And then have Medvedev step aside and then he would be legally able to have a third term.

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Your hope for Trump's strategy infers a level of intelligence and skill that he completely lacks.

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Ryan is compromised.

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I get your trying to make lemonade.

But, He and his goons were used to shouting into the void without any consequences.

Now, the void is hitting back, they're all talk and no substance.

There is no plan with this administration - this is what incompetence looks like.

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Brit here. A lot of sense in these comments. My two pennyworth. Trump respects power and strength, that's why he has a bit of a thing for dictators and despots. To understand him is to deal with him.

It's now too late for the 20% of Ukraine lost but we in Europe should use the pause to wake-the-f-up and arm ourselves and our friends to the teeth for what is coming over the hill. Or we will be next.

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We need the Brits back in the EU and with a martial approach to this period of History, so we can re-arm and show that we mean business.

South and Western Europe may have gone soft, but the Baltics, Poland, Czechia, ... still have a vivid memory of what is being under russian control, they will not lay down, must not lay down and we cannot let them down.

Basically, the 'Trump Coup' is not dissimilar to what happened in Russia when organised crime took over power 'definitively'.

In this case, the variation is that Trump is a weaker leader, who is just a 'totem' of something much larger, who happens to be riding the fact that he is 'needed/useful' to keep the masses hypnotised with that sweet (for them) tune of bigotry, misogyny and general putridness of character.

Trump rides that for his benefit as a 'take as much as I can while I can' and thus is prone to 'break ranks' from 'best policies' of the (much) higher powers, who now use the unbound control given by our dependency from the internet and social media to "BEND REALITY" by creating a large mass of brain-washed zombies to whom it's impossible to bring back to our previous (at least apparent) path towards human progress, but, alas...

When Amazon just announced that they can CHANGE THE CONTENTS OF THE BOOKS WHICH THEY HAVE ALREADY SOLD YOU, and change it inside your Kindle, without you being able to do anything about it, you know that '1984' arrived, 40 years later, but it has definitely arrived.

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After reading the Mueller Report, and his dealings with Russia from a decade ago, I have no reason to believe Trump is negotiating in good faith for our ALLY Ukraine.

After reading many first hand accounts from the first administration, this agenda likely lacks any long term thinking and ignores the likely consequences.

Not only will this weaken our position militarily, if we do withdraw forces and equipment forward staged within Europe, but also economically as our allies give us the cold shoulder.

The only world class items produced in the auas are weapons. What happens when we can't sell those weapons? Checkbook dries up.

Mr. McBeth, I truly believe this is the most dire our nation has faded since the breakaway of the Confederacy. I do truly appreciate your reasonably unbiased stance, and the wisdom that comes from the path you walked.

America is Great, has been Great, and will only stop being Great if the current red hats (i.e. brown shirts) continue their march of destruction on the backbone of our Federal Government.

IMO, Trump is more likely to radicalize Ukranian-Americans into terrorist action than he is to convince Ukraine to give up their lands to a foreign invader.

This strategy didn't work in 1939 or in 1914.

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It is a small group of people that still read.

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Ryan, you are overthinking this. There is "no big picture here". Trump is demonizing Ukraine so that he can justify abandoning them. Trump is Putin's useful idiot....Trump will not go to war with China over Taiwan.... this is where we are.... this is what America got when the voted Trump into office for a second term.

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Trump owned some casinos, pulled more money out than they made, and bankrupted them. We elected a cheat, a liar, a selfish child of a man, to the highest office in the land. He wants to stay out of prison, he wants to do as he wants with no consequences, and he is enjoying the support of the white supremacists who have been growing their institutional power since the 70's. He accuses others of what he wants to do and be. The USA is in for some dark times.

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Trump's casino failed, the only thing he's noticed about Putin is the size of the bribe he gave him.

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Hi Ryan!

When the PiS Government was running Poland for 8 years, changing the narrative towards Germany and EU, I found it VERY difficult to appease people in Germany that they should have a bit more patience, because change will eventually come. And it did in form of PM Tusk and his Government.

So arguing in favour of your team inspite seeing the blunders your team does, is very difficult, and I feel with you. Its f****** difficult.

What press. Trump is gambling with, however, is irresponsible. Yes it does send a shiver down the european spines, but that happend alreadyv3 years ago. The remarks now feel more like a betrayal of a friendship that lasted well over 70 years.

And not only Europe. Canada as well! For God's sake, CANADA! The most friendly Labrador of international relationships, now deciding go solo or with the EU and diversify away from USA!!

To me it feels more like Putin has something very discrediting on Trump, or he secretly holds some assets that could ruin Trump's buisness empire. Either way it feels like Putin has something on Trump that makes hip play to Putins handbook, because he follows all the steps nescessary to weaken USA's biggest strengths- their friends and standing in the international community. USA is now alienating their friends within and outside NATO.

It is a clear example of how to play "divide et impara" [divide and conquer].

Please USA, 🙏 don't let that happen!!!

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2dEdited

Given all of the evidence, if you were to go through ICD-203 what would you say the probability is of 5d chess?

None of us here are excited to acknowledge the possibility we might actually be facing the most straightforward explanation for all of the bizarre happenings with the President and the cabinet that seem straight out of a foreign influence playbook, as it would mean the US president doing a full 180 on foreign policy aligning us with our autocratic adversaries against our democratic allies (and values, and likely will of the people and military).

Or as Sec State put it a few weeks ago, going back to a "normal" multipolar world where we each have our spheres of influence, and we concern ourselves with the western hemisphere, which would also make some more sense out of the weird obsessions with Greenland and Panama, and trying to assert ourselves against Canada and Mexico.

Seems incredibly doubtful but I really hope against all odds you are somehow right on this, though!

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I’m an Aussie.

Let’s be frank and honest about this. Trump is, and always has been, in Putin’s pocket. he admires dictators because he wants to be one.

Let’s also be honest here about what this means. The US is unreliable at best and more likely completely dishonourable. We cannot trust you any more and we must move away from what was a very close relationship.

I’d be opposing any new purchases of any American weapons, and would be emphasising trade in other places. All of Trump’s actions have played directly into Russia and Chinese hands.

Should the US democracy survive what is a blatant coup to install an authoritarian kleptocracy dictatorship it will still take many decades before any soft influence or trust will return. You have shown just how far gone you are, and how well the Russian and Chinese disinformation campaign has been.

Screw you guys, you are not our friends.

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Buddy, you should be Canada! This fucker wants to annex us. I believe that there's a way to deal with it but nobody wants to say it.

Alternatively 25th Amendment, Section 4

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I feel for Canada living next to this shit storm fascist coup, and no I’m not being hyperbolic when I call it fascism. Their actions fit every description of fascism. Red hats are the new brown shirts.

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Your ending fantasy is just that, a fantasy. We have a defective child elected to the presidency and that child has a huge ego and a rap sheet.

vance is a russian stooge, that much is clear, and he is voicing what the russians have been saying for 3 years, both trump and vance have done more damage in one week than any enemy spy could do in ten years.

trump is a liar, trump is in this presidency for himself and he has a cabinet of stooges that know only one word "YES, and hand me the toilet paper, something is on my face".

Currently the American people are living on the backs of those that sacrificed for their freedom. These current Americans are unwilling to sacrifice anything, including their lives for anything bigger than themselves, their own comfort. Current Americans are becoming more and more like the pathetic russian people, unwilling to free themselves because their comfort, what they know of it, matters more.

The people of the USA forget that France is the reason the USA exists at all. Had France not poured a huge amount of money and troops into saving a frail USA, it is highly likely we would be speaking with a British accent right now.

Americans can only be seen as cowards right now, trying to preach, and in this preaching not doing anything to backup any of that preaching. The USA has a second president, elon musk that is a south african immigrant, has not been vetted by anyone, and first and foremost has his own interests at heart. musk has BILLIONS in government contracts, or to put it more bluntly, billions given to him to keep him afloat, and he is the one cutting programs?

trump is the apex idiot, only concerned about his image, and willing to make a deal that makes him look good at everyone's expense.

trump will DO NOTHING if china invades taiwan. trump will send weapons to be sure in attemps to do the same thing Ukraine is doing to russia, weakening them, but trump will commit no troops, no coalition because in the end trump knows the chip plants being built right now, and the people he has already poached under china's nose to run them will take the place of Taiwan.

trump is out of control garbage and only out for himself at everyone's expense. trumps ego dictates what happens, what he says, trump is only interested in how he looks. trump has no grasp of history, and like putin makes things up that put him in the best light.

trump is exactly like putin, and the gutless American people let this happen.

Here is a dangerous scenario...trump gets so pissed at all the negative press and negative allied comments he decides to help putin win the war against Ukraine, how many people in the USA will follow trump? Think about that.

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