11 Comments
Jun 14Liked by Ryan McBeth

1) Hubble Space Telescope is supposed to be a KH-11 looking up instead of down

2) As an old Armored Cav Troop commander, nothing will ever replace a guy with binoculars, map and radio.

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I recently saw a supposed UK AF base “plane stalker channel”, video on YT. which supposedly shared a video montage of a posse of B1Bs flying into that base, AS WELL AS A SUPPOSED U2?? My understanding was the U2 dates back to the days even before the Cuban Missile Crisis?

1) why would the U2 still be used if it’s faster and higher-flying successor was already retired?

2) surely, w/ advances in autonomous “rocket-powered drone” capabilities and w/ RT data capture and transmission capabilities, there must be a lot of non-disclosed capabilities that have been/are being developed, to improve the capabilities and the economics of, super-sonic and super-high drone capabilities?

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founding

Airspace....(?)

In Europe, a U2 can orbit very high in the airspace over friendly countries and ‘see’ what might be going on in an adjacent enemy territory.

A recent Ukrainian attack that destroyed a permanent ground based Russian ‘over the horizon’ radar warning system might also mitigate their ability to detect and track some types of high altitude surveillance aircraft.

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founding

Oops...

It was a very large, multi-story antenna.

Basically, a huge skinny building with a curved dish-like antenna built into one side.

Not sure that it was ‘over the horizon’, but assuredly part of their ‘early warning’ system....

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U2 cost a fraction and are reliable

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Wouldn’t the balloons be very easy to shoot down?

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author

They are over a mile in the air and constantly moving up and down / side to side. In a LSCO environments maybe. In a COIN environment, no.

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No. Not easy to pick up on radar or other sensors and with active defenses like C-RAM to take out incoming.

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Good analogy; the greater the elevation the greater the cost. Sometimes magnitudes. Thanks Ryan.

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Long ago talking to a satellite guy, he explained just how good look down radar was at finding any boat or submarine moving. His software would calculate speed and displacement based on wake. Submarine depth was also calculable. By FFT filtering all the wavelet natural motion out only unnatural motion remains. Which implies to me USA and NATO know when a Russian submarine is moving. It would be great if a sub met a drone dropped torpedo as it launched missiles. I expect that since a strong look down radar is only about 20 kg, that any Predator sized aircraft can carry that. Since departure times are known and underwater speed is guessable, the location probability can be established. To get the torpedo on scene in time maybe a fair sized fleet needs to be in the air and get a little bit lucky. All of this is due to the incompressibility of water. The bow wave of a sub at 100 meters and two knots pushes up the ocean by a discernible amount.

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Another very cool conversation I had was with an old Russian guy who worked on bomber detection in the 1960’s.

Microphone arrays on mountain sides and geological sensors fed analog data which was map calibrated. The exact speed of sound through the earths crust was known as was through air. This way as the B-52 sound hit the ground it arrived before the faraway microphones heard it. The computer solved bearing, distance, heading, altitude, speed.

Then maybe 25 years ago I was talking to a stealth guy. He started to discuss detection of stealth aircraft with acoustics as well as surface friction heating but cut it short due secrecy. But I can guess that acoustic detection is back. A balloon brings you up into clean open air. If you ever parachuted, you can hear conversations 500’ below you. Imagine how good a microphone array is at say 2500’ altitude? Now put up a string of 10 balloons. Any inbound drone is going to be trajectoried at a decent range. I will guess 20 km? With data links, the sensors can be used to engage the executive just like in the graphic.

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