If the United States strikes Iran, when would it actually happen?
In this video, I break down the likely strike window using the same factors military planners consider: carrier positioning, transit timelines, moon phase illumination, weather conditions over key targets, and even the operational impact of Ramadan.
Free members can watch on YouTube below. Please consider joining for only $5 a month.
Right now, the U.S. has one carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea — what I like to call the “Sea of America” — and another en route.
At $6.5 million per day to operate a carrier strike group, these assets don’t deploy for fun. Timing matters.
I’ll look at:
Transit timelines for a second carrier entering strike range
Historical moon phase data from 20 major air operations since 1980
Weather forecasts over Tehran, Isfahan, Natanz, Fordow, Shiraz, Qom, and Tabriz
Why IRGC targets would likely be prioritized over Artesh installations
How conscription changes the internal stability calculus
And why a narrow window between the 25th–27th may be optimal
This isn’t political commentary. It’s operational analysis.
All of the spreadsheet data on moon phase, weather, and historical air operations is available below for paid members:
