Syria will need to reach out to others to help re-build. Every nation will have an agenda.
The west's help has strings just like every other nation's. But the west has the least strings and best economies.
I would aim to be more Jordan-like and less Turkey-like. There are no great examples to follow in the MENA regions. But if Syria could develop a republic that protects religious rights, all rights, does not enshrine any one religion as law, and strives not to be a democracy (mob rule) but a liberal democracy (rule of law, separation of powers, independent judiciary) you will be on your way.
Learn from Iraq. "Contextual Democracy" will always fail. Especially when the "context" you are trying to include is a religion. Syria needs a big table that seats a lot of leaders. A parliament that represents regions, not religions. Syria MUST have an independent judiciary that doesn't answer to the new leaders of Syria. I also suggest a Truth and Reconciliation commission to address the issues of justice.
Not one of these can be left out. This is the bare minimum for success.
Whatever government arises in Syria faces the stark choice of being a liberal democracy that derives its legitimacy from the will of the people, or become a tool of repression to satisfy the demands of intolerant religious zealots or soulless and greedy kleptocrats. It's neighbor Lebanon once had a vibrant business community but failed to shed Hezbollah following its ruinous civil war because sectarianism was revered over competent policy in its politics. Both Lebanon and Syria now have momentous decisions to make owing to the weakening of Iraq, Russia and Hebelloah.
1. Turkey is already in there as the replacement for Iran. Shia out Sunni in. Erdogan has a much bigger agenda than just the Kurds. He is going for reinstating the Ottoman empire and "liberating" Jerusalem. In Israel everyone is celebrating the demise of Iran's "ring of fire", but it may only be replaced by a new Sunni ring of fire taking orders from Ankara.
2. I think you are also missing the Shia/Sunni animosity. If power is in the hands of Al-Qa'eda Sunni's backed by the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood branch in Ankara, they hate the Alawis, anything Shia, the Hizbollah, the Iranians as well as the apostate Kurds and Druze. Hizbollah and anyone related to them are fleeing over the border to Lebanon. Iran's influence is over unless they can orchestrate an Alawi uprising.
3. You missed Israel completely. Over the last day or so, Israel is systematically destroying every Syrian military asset they can find and taken up new defensive positions to prevent any over-zealous Jihadis from trying to drive their Toyota to the border. Israel has vested interests both for its own security but also for the Druze and the Kurdish minorities. If the Syrian Druze are targetted by the new forces, Israel may be forced to defend them.
But I'm afraid the deck is stacked against Syria to have a peaceful transition. There are too many bad actors with conflicting ambitions, and too many malicious foreign powers with bad intents. It's hard to be optimistic that things won't devolve into sectarian warfare like with Yugoslavia and the Balkans Wars, or Ethiopia, or Somalia.
The Syrians have a chance to have a free and open democracy, but the olds are against them.
As with so many times in history, the image is one of Big Players standing around a cutting board with the new Independent laid out in all of its vulnerability. Turkey wants to hold Eastern Turkey from the Kurds because even though it "may" be Kurdish lands traditionally, it also locates the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates. Iran continues to push a SHIA/ theocratic agenda which is only thinly different from SUNNI
Saude Arabia and Iraq. Good Luck sorting THAT one out. The myriad of small groups are nothing more than the Middle East being...well....the Middle East. Tribes fight back and forth pretty much for "shits-and-giggles" finding the single most assinine reasons to take unbarage. Go back over Lebanon and Israel before they were even in the 19th Century and you'll see what I mean. Like China and Russia the Middle East is all about a hetman and his group of advisors. In the West we didn't move towards a Democratic ideology until the "Age of Enlightenment". China, Russia and the Middle East never went through
such an age, nor would their version of democracy be the same as West European Democracy if it did. Just sayin.......
The thought and hope for peace is great in Syria. But with 4 or more groups "allied" together which defeated Assad and his "friends" makes me doubt any agreement among them can be reached. It is only a matter of time before they begin to fight each other again.
Hi ryan think about this for a moment before you dismiss it I don't know who else to send this idea too. A10s for anti drone work. I was watching the videos on the F15s taking out Iranian drones and the A10 flight characteristics are better for slow low flying aircraft and 30 mm is big enough for a proximity fuse oerlikon has rounds already developed. And the warthog has plenty of hard points for other weapons suitable for anti drone work. I understand that the platform is aging out but GAU 30 may be able to wipe out a swarm whatever a swarm may be.
One very minor correction, Ryan:
It's "sectarian" violence (meaning that various sects are fighting), not "secretarian" violence.
I mean, I'm not actually in Syria, so I'm not 100% certain.
And just like the next guy, I love to see hot babes getting down and dirty, grappling with each other.
But I doubt that Syria's secretaries are out there fighting...
Keep up the good work, Ryan!
Hey let a man dream ok 🤣
Syria will need to reach out to others to help re-build. Every nation will have an agenda.
The west's help has strings just like every other nation's. But the west has the least strings and best economies.
I would aim to be more Jordan-like and less Turkey-like. There are no great examples to follow in the MENA regions. But if Syria could develop a republic that protects religious rights, all rights, does not enshrine any one religion as law, and strives not to be a democracy (mob rule) but a liberal democracy (rule of law, separation of powers, independent judiciary) you will be on your way.
Learn from Iraq. "Contextual Democracy" will always fail. Especially when the "context" you are trying to include is a religion. Syria needs a big table that seats a lot of leaders. A parliament that represents regions, not religions. Syria MUST have an independent judiciary that doesn't answer to the new leaders of Syria. I also suggest a Truth and Reconciliation commission to address the issues of justice.
Not one of these can be left out. This is the bare minimum for success.
Whatever government arises in Syria faces the stark choice of being a liberal democracy that derives its legitimacy from the will of the people, or become a tool of repression to satisfy the demands of intolerant religious zealots or soulless and greedy kleptocrats. It's neighbor Lebanon once had a vibrant business community but failed to shed Hezbollah following its ruinous civil war because sectarianism was revered over competent policy in its politics. Both Lebanon and Syria now have momentous decisions to make owing to the weakening of Iraq, Russia and Hebelloah.
You missed several things.
1. Turkey is already in there as the replacement for Iran. Shia out Sunni in. Erdogan has a much bigger agenda than just the Kurds. He is going for reinstating the Ottoman empire and "liberating" Jerusalem. In Israel everyone is celebrating the demise of Iran's "ring of fire", but it may only be replaced by a new Sunni ring of fire taking orders from Ankara.
2. I think you are also missing the Shia/Sunni animosity. If power is in the hands of Al-Qa'eda Sunni's backed by the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood branch in Ankara, they hate the Alawis, anything Shia, the Hizbollah, the Iranians as well as the apostate Kurds and Druze. Hizbollah and anyone related to them are fleeing over the border to Lebanon. Iran's influence is over unless they can orchestrate an Alawi uprising.
3. You missed Israel completely. Over the last day or so, Israel is systematically destroying every Syrian military asset they can find and taken up new defensive positions to prevent any over-zealous Jihadis from trying to drive their Toyota to the border. Israel has vested interests both for its own security but also for the Druze and the Kurdish minorities. If the Syrian Druze are targetted by the new forces, Israel may be forced to defend them.
Well said my friend. You are indeed wise with a big heart. And I thought you were just super smart. Merry Christmas. Carl
Good for Ryan making this plea for peace.
But I'm afraid the deck is stacked against Syria to have a peaceful transition. There are too many bad actors with conflicting ambitions, and too many malicious foreign powers with bad intents. It's hard to be optimistic that things won't devolve into sectarian warfare like with Yugoslavia and the Balkans Wars, or Ethiopia, or Somalia.
The Syrians have a chance to have a free and open democracy, but the olds are against them.
As with so many times in history, the image is one of Big Players standing around a cutting board with the new Independent laid out in all of its vulnerability. Turkey wants to hold Eastern Turkey from the Kurds because even though it "may" be Kurdish lands traditionally, it also locates the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates. Iran continues to push a SHIA/ theocratic agenda which is only thinly different from SUNNI
Saude Arabia and Iraq. Good Luck sorting THAT one out. The myriad of small groups are nothing more than the Middle East being...well....the Middle East. Tribes fight back and forth pretty much for "shits-and-giggles" finding the single most assinine reasons to take unbarage. Go back over Lebanon and Israel before they were even in the 19th Century and you'll see what I mean. Like China and Russia the Middle East is all about a hetman and his group of advisors. In the West we didn't move towards a Democratic ideology until the "Age of Enlightenment". China, Russia and the Middle East never went through
such an age, nor would their version of democracy be the same as West European Democracy if it did. Just sayin.......
Get some sleep man
The thought and hope for peace is great in Syria. But with 4 or more groups "allied" together which defeated Assad and his "friends" makes me doubt any agreement among them can be reached. It is only a matter of time before they begin to fight each other again.
Hi ryan think about this for a moment before you dismiss it I don't know who else to send this idea too. A10s for anti drone work. I was watching the videos on the F15s taking out Iranian drones and the A10 flight characteristics are better for slow low flying aircraft and 30 mm is big enough for a proximity fuse oerlikon has rounds already developed. And the warthog has plenty of hard points for other weapons suitable for anti drone work. I understand that the platform is aging out but GAU 30 may be able to wipe out a swarm whatever a swarm may be.