What Does Bakhmut Say About Russian Artillery?
That's a nice trench line in a perfect position, so why isn't Russia shelling it?
Bakhmut is a city in Eastern Ukraine. It’s been surrounded by Russia Federation forces for a few weeks now, but the city is still holding on for now.
This was the disposition of RF forces on February 26th, 2023.
And this is the disposition of RF Forces on 3/3/2023:
The walls are closing in on Bakhmut and unless Ukraine can execute a counterattack, they are going to have a problem.
But that really isn’t the point of this article.
I bought some satellite footage (thank you for everyone who subscribes because satellite footage isn’t cheap) and I noticed something interesting northwest of the city in Ukraine’s rear.
The above spot has amazing fields of fire and will block Russia’s advance from the northeast - or at least slow it and make them pay for every inch. Ukraine has built several defensive trenches.
So why doesn’t this area of the map look like the surface of the moon?
Here’s a closer look. How many shell holes do you see?
I count three recent shell holes.
I believe these white areas are shell holes from previous shelling where the snow melted, but snow in the shadow of the shell hole remained out of the sun and never melted. So if we count them:
We get 10 shell holes, for a total of 13.
This is a Russian Battalion Tactical Group. Russia normally gives its battalion commanders the kind of Artillery and Engineer support that NATO commanders only get at brigade level.
There are a total of 12 Artillery systems in a BTG.
Three 122mm Self-propelled 2S1 Gvozdikas
Three 120mm 2C12 Mortars
And Six (two platoons worth) of 2С9 Нона-С 120mm mortars.
Why so much artillery? Well, it’s cheap.
If you want to have a cheaper conscript army that’s led by professional officers, it’s better to become artillery heavy.
Infantry requires squads to fire and maneuver often times out of contact with leadership. Ultimately it falls to Staff Sergeants and Platoon Sergeants to execute the commander’s intent when not in contact with their officers.
I’ve often called these senior noncommissioned officers (NCOs) “Burger King Drive Thru Managers.”
But this isn’t necessarily a hit on their leadership. People go to drive thrus because they don’t have the time to go inside. A drive thru manager needs to be able to think on their feet and satisfy customer requests quickly without escalating the problem to the manager, who is dealing with the rest of the restaurant
But Russia doesn’t really have this mid-level NCO system. They do have NCOs, but they tend to be at the junior level and don’t have much agency or decision-making power. Soldiers who want to lead become officers. Soldiers who want to become technical professionals become Warrant Officers.
That mid level Burger King Drive Thru manager exists on paper as the старшина or “Starshina” but in reality, you don’t see them and NCO professional development outside of technical circles is not as extensive as NATO’s.
It’s cheaper to pay for some good officers who can supervise the loading and firing of artillery than it is to pay for the training of competent infantry with mid-level leaders who can think for themselves.
I think it’s safe to say that the Russian army is an artillery-centric army. So why doesn’t this piece of key terrain look like Verdun in 1916?
If one Battalion Tactical Group has 12 guns, and Bakhmut is surrounded by multiple Battalion Tactical groups, why are there only 13 shell holes?
There could be a few reasons.
It’s possible that Russia believes that area to be unoccupied or not of any great importance.
It could also be that they are saving shells for a later attack or for Kreminna, Vuhledar or a final attack on Bakhmut.
Or it could be that they are running out of shells.
Now Russia has been running out of equipment for a year now. And I’m sure by next year, Russia will still be running out of equipment. But you can’t deny that something smells funny. And then I see this picture.
This ammunition box for 122mm shells has a manufacturing date of 2022.
Could this mean that Russia is now using artillery ammunition that was manufactured recently?
If so, that could explain why this trench line isn’t a smoking hole of vapor.
Russia may not have the shells, or they may be saving them for a final assault in the coming days. This satellite footage may look a lot different next week.
Thanks for your post! Quality work.
About the lack of fire. Wagner has complained recently that they're facing supply issues. Could be that. Could also be, they're just tunnel visioning Bakhmut for a political victory.
I personally think it's both. Since Wagner is undersupplied, and Prigozhin wants this victory so he could gain influence, they are told not to was ammo on non crucial positions.
Fascinating post. Analysis like this is why I subscribe. This is one a real world example I will share with my students. Thank you.