#1 - Almost no chance. If Israel has done it deliberately, you'd expect messaging of "Militants used it as a base," along with expectation of finding Israeli munition debris.
#2 - Very unlikely. Israel could be wanting to cover its mistake, but at the risk of munition debris being found. Hard to believe Israeli munition would go so off course, and that Hamas could make that happen,
#3 - Almost no chance. It's not Hamas' style to create martyrs in this manner. This explanation reminds me of Putin blaming Russian dissidents for assassinating themselves in order to discredit him.
#4 - Likely. Hamas would want to cover up such a mistake and use it for propaganda value. They also have the ability to try to cleanse the scene of their own munition debris.
Expanding on #4, Hamas is known to use hospitals as bases for their human shield value, and a munitions cookoff would devastate such a facility. I haven't heard this specific mechanism discussed yet, but it seems the most likely to happen (as munitions would already be at the facility), and the most likely to cause such devastation (as a mere rocket seems unlikely to take out something that big).
Same. I feel Israel would lose everything. All the sympathy and support. It wouldn’t be worth it. Absolutely No way. This was a Hamas/Iranian terror job. Wreaks of it. Within moments.... mere moments it was all over Arab news outlets. Almost like someone had prior knowledge of said attack.
Aside from who is to blame, it seems like many sources are claiming that about 500 people were killed in this explosion. The explosion damage shown in the photos you link to doesn't look nearly large enough to have killed that many people, even if the parking lot had been packed full of people. Is the number of dead in dispute here?
Gruesome as this may seem, if there were 500 people killed, there would be blood stained clothing, personal effects and perhaps bodys/body parts scattered around. Nothing like that is visible in the picture.
Option #4 seems to be the most probable explanation using the chart. I think a problem is that perception gets traction much quicker than analysis in highly charged situations so truth becomes a casualty.
Surprise ending Ryan! I thought you were going to give us your analysis - now you're making us think:-) I would say most probably an off-course Hamas rocket. I also saw it may have been from another group inside Gaza - forget their name.
Interesting, but I can't help but think my own answers to the questions will be subjective and just my opinion. I don't see a way of obtaining objective answers to some of the questions without more information or expertise.
Ryan, I am rather surprised and disappointed with your assessment of the Netanyahu Government. Corruption is Bibi’s middle name. He is the one individual who is actually benefiting from this horrific situation, as the war has distracted people from his impending Corruption trials.
Israeli Politics aside, that crater photo is interesting. The fusing for whatever weapon created that hole was set for contact (aka a “Daisy cutter”), not destruction (or “Delay”, usually used for destroying buildings or dug-in emplacements).
Any of the three American-made weapons you mentioned would have created more destruction than what I viewed in those two photos - note the burned out cars still arrayed in more or less organized rows. The blast radius from the small diameter bomb, fuse set on contact, would have created sufficient blast to turn anything in the open within 50 meters into very small bits, and the damage to the rest of that courtyard would reflect a massive pressure wave event. Note that I offer the hypothetical results of the smallest of the three air-delivered weapons.
Could this have been some kind of hone-made rocket gone astray? Possibly. I need to know more about the missile - amount of explosive, fuse mechanism, where it came from and where it was aimed - in order to confirm or dismiss that possibility.
I note that you did not mention the possibility that this may have been an Israeli Artillery “winger”, or stray 155 mm round.
I served in the Royal Canadian Artillery for 12 years, and I’m quite familiar with the effects of various forms of artillery munitions. I have to tell you, Ryan, that the damage to the parking lot and the size of that crater particularly, inspires me to think of a 155mm HE round with a Mechanical Timed Super Quick fuse, set for impact.
Please share your thoughts, Dr. Heintz. I offered the NATO standard 155mm HE round as a potential culprit, because I know that this is the most commonly deployed Medium Artillery calibre used by the IDF. The Russian 152mm HE round would have similar effect, but neither side in this particular fight employ that calibre. Hamas and other unconventional forces in Gaza are using their own domestically fabricated rocket systems, and I am unfamiliar with the specifications of those weapons.
I think it’s pretty clear as American intelligence releases reports that it was a Gaza launched misfired missile of not a large explosive power fired by another armed group, Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Just stupid lashing out violence.
Personally, I am doubting the claiming of 500 people killed after looking at the parking lot damage. I do know that civilians were sheltering at the hospital because hospitals are a safe target from Israeli airstrikes. So there could’ve been a concentration of civilians, but we just don’t see the bodies in the photos. In fact, the crater is quite small and the blast radius barely reaches the hospital. Thoughts?
Long experience with many Intelligence Agencies being “overly economical with facts”, leads me to be dubious of the Israeli/American claim. Israeli Intelligence in particular, has lost most of their credibility in my eyes, after their utter failure to anticipate or mitigate the Hamas attack.
Like the rest of us, the spooks do not have access to the physical evidence required to establish culpability in this situation. Definitive statements regarding the origin of the weapon that caused this situation cannot taken as absolutely credible. As Ryan has explained, the best we can hope for at this point is assessed probability. I believe that the public announcements assigning blame are motivated more by political considerations than concern with disseminating factual evidence.
Regarding the photographic evidence that we do have - I stand by my assessment, based on personal experience with similar weapons. Many people are surprised, the first time that they see how small a crater can be, depending on the fuse setting of the projectile involved. An “Air Burst”-fused weapon leaves NO crater at all, and yet the blast radius can be very large.
As for the casualty figure of 475 dead, around 500 wounded - it is likely to be accurate, based on the pre-strike conditions in the area, leading to highly concentrated gatherings in “safe” locations. The speed of evacuation of said casualties is credible - first, the urge to seek life-saving assistance would give a high sense of urgency to first responders; and for the dead, Muslim tradition demands a swift burial for the departed, optimally not later than sunset on the day of death.
No, Dr. Heintz, I am not prepared to alter my assessment until I see further physical evidence. Sadly, their prior disinformation campaigns have lead me to doubt the veracity of the Israeli and American claims in this situation.
The crater is unlikely to be caused by an artillery round. The idea sounds plausible on the surface, but it doesn't stand deeper scrutiny. 155mm artillery has a CEP of between 50 and 200 meters at 25 kilometers range and becomes more accurate as the range decreases. Was there a target near the hospital that was targeted by Israeli artillery? Because they generally don't just launch single shells at their targets. There is nothing to suggest that any artillery was being targeted near the hospital.
The number of deaths is questionable based on photographic evidence. The photograph of the crater provided by Hamas shows damage to a parking lot. A couple of cars are destroyed, but vehicles 20 feet away still have their windows intact. These vehicles are closer to the center of the blast than the hospital. What are the odds that an explosion powerful enough to kill more than 475 people and injure another 500 plus. Especially since there were only 400 to 500 people sheltering there prior to the attack. Was everyone killed and some people also wounded, many more than once?
You may distrust western intelligence services, and there is some reason to do so. But they are far more reliable than Hamas or any other Palestinian militant group.
Hello, Ray. Thank you for your observations. The most relevant datum for the 155mm High Explosive Round M795 is the “Kill Radius”, which for this round is 50 Meters. Shrapnel will make life very unpleasant well beyond this distance, but Blast is the mechanism of injury that kills many people, especially when the round impacts in an enclosed space - such as a courtyard or walled parking lot. The Shock Wave generated by a 94 lbs HE Projectile can be reflected and concentrated by hard surfaces, and aerosolized fuel from burst automobile fuel tanks would create a devastatingly lethal environment.
Regarding your observation of Artillery Fire Mission procedures; when a Fire Mission is ordered, part of the discretionary control instructions from the Forward Observer may include “Adjust Fire”. This means that when the Battery Command Post has crunched the numbers and assigned bearing and elevation to each Gun, the first gun ready will be used to correct the aim of the whole Battery by firing one round at a time. Time of Flight is recorded at this point, to enable swift calculation of HE Air Burst rounds, should they be required.
The Forward Observer (FO) assesses the fall of shot, adjusting the location and ordering additional single rounds by radio as needed. Once the FO is satisfied that the target is bracketed, they transmit “Fire For Effect”, and the Battery lets loose with the predetermined number and mixture of ammunition types.
Now, it is not essential that this procedure be followed, with certain types of terminally guided artillery rounds. Those are VERY expensive and are saved for high value targets. Typical Infantry fire support missions won’t require that degree of accuracy.
So, the moral of this story? Artillery Batteries, in Armies ALL over the world, use single guns for “Adjusting Fire” on a routine basis.
The next and more important aspect of this subject, is the Human Factor.
There have been instances of Gunners making mistakes in aiming, since Artillery was first invented. There is a reason that certain Infantry units refer to Artillery Gunners as “Drop-Shorts”. A huge amount of time and energy has been devoted to mitigating this problem through design changes and better training, but Fatigue, Hunger, Fear, Anger and the Fog of War can create situations that no training syllabus can possibly anticipate.
This situation could easily have been a simple but tragic screw-up by some Gunner on an M109 near Nevivot.
Regarding your dismissal of the possibility of this explosion being caused by a 155mm HE round; I refer to my earlier post, to my observation of the available photographic evidence from the Hospital parking lot. I do not know what imagery you are referring to that depicted unscathed car windows 20 feet/7 Meters from the point of impact. Your assertion is inconsistent with the evidence that I have seen and refer to in my posts. I suspect the car in question arrived on the scene after the detonation. I suggest examining the walls behind the undamaged car in the photos which you identified.
Didn't Irael send a warning to evacuate that hospital? Or was it a different one? I remember them releasing the warning a day or two before this happened but the Palestinians said they couldn't evacuate in time.
It is a fine point, one that looks past the ethics of issuing a warning impossible to respond to - but the warning referenced is to all hospitals, isn’t it? I do see reports on Reuters that a Palestinian official claims there was a warning specific to the site of the explosion.
Hamas wants maximum death of people in Gaza. The plan is to whip up passions of Iran, Turkey, etc. This is why they ordered the people to not evacuate. Hamas does not hide that they position systems in hospitals and schools. The motive is strong for Hamas.
Israel has nothing to gain and a lot to lose by targeting a hospital. This has the earmarks of a Hamas screw up. But they commonly put civilians in harms way as shields and propaganda material so, there’s that.
Wish I was smarter, but my own limitations make an informed opinion difficult. An intentional direct hit on a hospital makes no sense for either side, so that leaves a mistake, error or fluke accident. The lack of direct damage to the vehicles parked around the alleged crater seems suspect. Also suspect that no photos of dead or injured are being presented, as if no one thought to take video or photos during the rescue or clean up phase? Extensive burning of vehicles but not much physical damage otherwise suggests a car park fire rather than a munitions strike by a 152 or 155mm shell. I'm leaning towards an errant Hamas rocket/missile struck the car park and a fire took place, perhaps fueled by vehicle gas tanks or other flammable material stored in the area.
It would not take too long to get a sample of the explosive and analyze the type of explosive then compare it to known samples using gas chromatography. The forensics would clear it up pretty fast.
The problem is there are no or little consequences for the people that lie.
Media places more emphasis on being the "first" to break a story than accuracy of that story.
Your subscribers can figure it out using ICD-203, but the "news media" and the politicians around the world can't??? Or is it they don't want the truth because it doesn't support their position or put money into their pockets?
#1 - Almost no chance. If Israel has done it deliberately, you'd expect messaging of "Militants used it as a base," along with expectation of finding Israeli munition debris.
#2 - Very unlikely. Israel could be wanting to cover its mistake, but at the risk of munition debris being found. Hard to believe Israeli munition would go so off course, and that Hamas could make that happen,
#3 - Almost no chance. It's not Hamas' style to create martyrs in this manner. This explanation reminds me of Putin blaming Russian dissidents for assassinating themselves in order to discredit him.
#4 - Likely. Hamas would want to cover up such a mistake and use it for propaganda value. They also have the ability to try to cleanse the scene of their own munition debris.
Expanding on #4, Hamas is known to use hospitals as bases for their human shield value, and a munitions cookoff would devastate such a facility. I haven't heard this specific mechanism discussed yet, but it seems the most likely to happen (as munitions would already be at the facility), and the most likely to cause such devastation (as a mere rocket seems unlikely to take out something that big).
Agree 100%. Good reasoning.
Same. I feel Israel would lose everything. All the sympathy and support. It wouldn’t be worth it. Absolutely No way. This was a Hamas/Iranian terror job. Wreaks of it. Within moments.... mere moments it was all over Arab news outlets. Almost like someone had prior knowledge of said attack.
Aside from who is to blame, it seems like many sources are claiming that about 500 people were killed in this explosion. The explosion damage shown in the photos you link to doesn't look nearly large enough to have killed that many people, even if the parking lot had been packed full of people. Is the number of dead in dispute here?
Gruesome as this may seem, if there were 500 people killed, there would be blood stained clothing, personal effects and perhaps bodys/body parts scattered around. Nothing like that is visible in the picture.
Option #4 seems to be the most probable explanation using the chart. I think a problem is that perception gets traction much quicker than analysis in highly charged situations so truth becomes a casualty.
Surprise ending Ryan! I thought you were going to give us your analysis - now you're making us think:-) I would say most probably an off-course Hamas rocket. I also saw it may have been from another group inside Gaza - forget their name.
Islamic Jihad
Thanks - shoulda know their name!
Interesting, but I can't help but think my own answers to the questions will be subjective and just my opinion. I don't see a way of obtaining objective answers to some of the questions without more information or expertise.
That’s why these probabilities, designed to be used rationally, Exist.
Possibly the smartest thing anyone could say about this...
Hamas. Whatever happens is on Hamas. I stand with Israel.
Ryan, I am rather surprised and disappointed with your assessment of the Netanyahu Government. Corruption is Bibi’s middle name. He is the one individual who is actually benefiting from this horrific situation, as the war has distracted people from his impending Corruption trials.
Israeli Politics aside, that crater photo is interesting. The fusing for whatever weapon created that hole was set for contact (aka a “Daisy cutter”), not destruction (or “Delay”, usually used for destroying buildings or dug-in emplacements).
Any of the three American-made weapons you mentioned would have created more destruction than what I viewed in those two photos - note the burned out cars still arrayed in more or less organized rows. The blast radius from the small diameter bomb, fuse set on contact, would have created sufficient blast to turn anything in the open within 50 meters into very small bits, and the damage to the rest of that courtyard would reflect a massive pressure wave event. Note that I offer the hypothetical results of the smallest of the three air-delivered weapons.
Could this have been some kind of hone-made rocket gone astray? Possibly. I need to know more about the missile - amount of explosive, fuse mechanism, where it came from and where it was aimed - in order to confirm or dismiss that possibility.
I note that you did not mention the possibility that this may have been an Israeli Artillery “winger”, or stray 155 mm round.
I served in the Royal Canadian Artillery for 12 years, and I’m quite familiar with the effects of various forms of artillery munitions. I have to tell you, Ryan, that the damage to the parking lot and the size of that crater particularly, inspires me to think of a 155mm HE round with a Mechanical Timed Super Quick fuse, set for impact.
Hamas doesn’t field those, buddy.
That was my second choice actually. Good thinking.
Please share your thoughts, Dr. Heintz. I offered the NATO standard 155mm HE round as a potential culprit, because I know that this is the most commonly deployed Medium Artillery calibre used by the IDF. The Russian 152mm HE round would have similar effect, but neither side in this particular fight employ that calibre. Hamas and other unconventional forces in Gaza are using their own domestically fabricated rocket systems, and I am unfamiliar with the specifications of those weapons.
I think it’s pretty clear as American intelligence releases reports that it was a Gaza launched misfired missile of not a large explosive power fired by another armed group, Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Just stupid lashing out violence.
Personally, I am doubting the claiming of 500 people killed after looking at the parking lot damage. I do know that civilians were sheltering at the hospital because hospitals are a safe target from Israeli airstrikes. So there could’ve been a concentration of civilians, but we just don’t see the bodies in the photos. In fact, the crater is quite small and the blast radius barely reaches the hospital. Thoughts?
Long experience with many Intelligence Agencies being “overly economical with facts”, leads me to be dubious of the Israeli/American claim. Israeli Intelligence in particular, has lost most of their credibility in my eyes, after their utter failure to anticipate or mitigate the Hamas attack.
Like the rest of us, the spooks do not have access to the physical evidence required to establish culpability in this situation. Definitive statements regarding the origin of the weapon that caused this situation cannot taken as absolutely credible. As Ryan has explained, the best we can hope for at this point is assessed probability. I believe that the public announcements assigning blame are motivated more by political considerations than concern with disseminating factual evidence.
Regarding the photographic evidence that we do have - I stand by my assessment, based on personal experience with similar weapons. Many people are surprised, the first time that they see how small a crater can be, depending on the fuse setting of the projectile involved. An “Air Burst”-fused weapon leaves NO crater at all, and yet the blast radius can be very large.
As for the casualty figure of 475 dead, around 500 wounded - it is likely to be accurate, based on the pre-strike conditions in the area, leading to highly concentrated gatherings in “safe” locations. The speed of evacuation of said casualties is credible - first, the urge to seek life-saving assistance would give a high sense of urgency to first responders; and for the dead, Muslim tradition demands a swift burial for the departed, optimally not later than sunset on the day of death.
No, Dr. Heintz, I am not prepared to alter my assessment until I see further physical evidence. Sadly, their prior disinformation campaigns have lead me to doubt the veracity of the Israeli and American claims in this situation.
Comprehensive comment.
The crater is unlikely to be caused by an artillery round. The idea sounds plausible on the surface, but it doesn't stand deeper scrutiny. 155mm artillery has a CEP of between 50 and 200 meters at 25 kilometers range and becomes more accurate as the range decreases. Was there a target near the hospital that was targeted by Israeli artillery? Because they generally don't just launch single shells at their targets. There is nothing to suggest that any artillery was being targeted near the hospital.
The number of deaths is questionable based on photographic evidence. The photograph of the crater provided by Hamas shows damage to a parking lot. A couple of cars are destroyed, but vehicles 20 feet away still have their windows intact. These vehicles are closer to the center of the blast than the hospital. What are the odds that an explosion powerful enough to kill more than 475 people and injure another 500 plus. Especially since there were only 400 to 500 people sheltering there prior to the attack. Was everyone killed and some people also wounded, many more than once?
You may distrust western intelligence services, and there is some reason to do so. But they are far more reliable than Hamas or any other Palestinian militant group.
Hello, Ray. Thank you for your observations. The most relevant datum for the 155mm High Explosive Round M795 is the “Kill Radius”, which for this round is 50 Meters. Shrapnel will make life very unpleasant well beyond this distance, but Blast is the mechanism of injury that kills many people, especially when the round impacts in an enclosed space - such as a courtyard or walled parking lot. The Shock Wave generated by a 94 lbs HE Projectile can be reflected and concentrated by hard surfaces, and aerosolized fuel from burst automobile fuel tanks would create a devastatingly lethal environment.
Regarding your observation of Artillery Fire Mission procedures; when a Fire Mission is ordered, part of the discretionary control instructions from the Forward Observer may include “Adjust Fire”. This means that when the Battery Command Post has crunched the numbers and assigned bearing and elevation to each Gun, the first gun ready will be used to correct the aim of the whole Battery by firing one round at a time. Time of Flight is recorded at this point, to enable swift calculation of HE Air Burst rounds, should they be required.
The Forward Observer (FO) assesses the fall of shot, adjusting the location and ordering additional single rounds by radio as needed. Once the FO is satisfied that the target is bracketed, they transmit “Fire For Effect”, and the Battery lets loose with the predetermined number and mixture of ammunition types.
Now, it is not essential that this procedure be followed, with certain types of terminally guided artillery rounds. Those are VERY expensive and are saved for high value targets. Typical Infantry fire support missions won’t require that degree of accuracy.
So, the moral of this story? Artillery Batteries, in Armies ALL over the world, use single guns for “Adjusting Fire” on a routine basis.
The next and more important aspect of this subject, is the Human Factor.
There have been instances of Gunners making mistakes in aiming, since Artillery was first invented. There is a reason that certain Infantry units refer to Artillery Gunners as “Drop-Shorts”. A huge amount of time and energy has been devoted to mitigating this problem through design changes and better training, but Fatigue, Hunger, Fear, Anger and the Fog of War can create situations that no training syllabus can possibly anticipate.
This situation could easily have been a simple but tragic screw-up by some Gunner on an M109 near Nevivot.
Regarding your dismissal of the possibility of this explosion being caused by a 155mm HE round; I refer to my earlier post, to my observation of the available photographic evidence from the Hospital parking lot. I do not know what imagery you are referring to that depicted unscathed car windows 20 feet/7 Meters from the point of impact. Your assertion is inconsistent with the evidence that I have seen and refer to in my posts. I suspect the car in question arrived on the scene after the detonation. I suggest examining the walls behind the undamaged car in the photos which you identified.
4 is the most probable.
Didn't Irael send a warning to evacuate that hospital? Or was it a different one? I remember them releasing the warning a day or two before this happened but the Palestinians said they couldn't evacuate in time.
Yes, but Israel asked that all the North be evacuated.
And I asked for a million bucks, doesn't make either of our demands realistic
Yep I just check the W.H.O still has the article on their website
Link?
https://www.who.int/news/item/14-10-2023-evacuation-orders-by-israel-to-hospitals-in-northern-gaza-are-a-death-sentence-for-the-sick-and-injured
It is a fine point, one that looks past the ethics of issuing a warning impossible to respond to - but the warning referenced is to all hospitals, isn’t it? I do see reports on Reuters that a Palestinian official claims there was a warning specific to the site of the explosion.
Also the whole ethics/democracy point only stands if your whole country isn't out for revenge and blood. Just look at Ben Shapiro's quote on the war
It clearly states the warning was sent to 22 hospitals. I don't believe in coincidences. And this article is from just 4 days ago.
I don’t know Gaza well, and I’m not a fan of trusting wikipedia, but according to this page there’s only 14 hospitals in Gaza.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_hospitals_in_the_State_of_Palestine
Hamas wants maximum death of people in Gaza. The plan is to whip up passions of Iran, Turkey, etc. This is why they ordered the people to not evacuate. Hamas does not hide that they position systems in hospitals and schools. The motive is strong for Hamas.
Israel has nothing to gain and a lot to lose by targeting a hospital. This has the earmarks of a Hamas screw up. But they commonly put civilians in harms way as shields and propaganda material so, there’s that.
Correction. You said Hamas is governing the Westbank. I believe you meant to say Gaza . Good video
I didn’t mean to say Garza. I need to update that with a correction this is what happens when you’re the only guy doing things.
I'm now somewhat confused. 😂 Typo with the "didn't"?
if i’m to use some wisdom ; death and taxes are certains machines breaks and men do make mistakes:
1: almost no chance
2: very unlikely
3: very unlikely
4: very likely
Wish I was smarter, but my own limitations make an informed opinion difficult. An intentional direct hit on a hospital makes no sense for either side, so that leaves a mistake, error or fluke accident. The lack of direct damage to the vehicles parked around the alleged crater seems suspect. Also suspect that no photos of dead or injured are being presented, as if no one thought to take video or photos during the rescue or clean up phase? Extensive burning of vehicles but not much physical damage otherwise suggests a car park fire rather than a munitions strike by a 152 or 155mm shell. I'm leaning towards an errant Hamas rocket/missile struck the car park and a fire took place, perhaps fueled by vehicle gas tanks or other flammable material stored in the area.
IDF released audio of hamas terrorists conversing about a islamist jihad rocket that had misfired from the cemetery behind the hospital and
I'd be interested in a link because I need to share that information elsewhere
It would not take too long to get a sample of the explosive and analyze the type of explosive then compare it to known samples using gas chromatography. The forensics would clear it up pretty fast.
The problem is there are no or little consequences for the people that lie.
Media places more emphasis on being the "first" to break a story than accuracy of that story.
Your subscribers can figure it out using ICD-203, but the "news media" and the politicians around the world can't??? Or is it they don't want the truth because it doesn't support their position or put money into their pockets?