Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed. Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike. ISW cannot independently verify the veracity of the video, and it may have been manufactured for informational purposes. Prigozhin used the video to then justify his most explicit rhetorical escalation against the Russian MoD to date and a call for action against the Russian MoD. Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Commanders’ Council made the decision to stop “the evil brought by the military leadership” who neglect and destroy the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers. Prigozhin urged the Russian people not to resist, to remain calm, remain in their homes, and warned that Wagner will “deal” with those who destroyed Russian soldiers before returning to the frontlines in Ukraine after restoring justice for all. Prigozhin also notably accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner and claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel are prepared to act. Prigozhin later posted an audio message qualifying his previous statements and claiming that there is no “coup,” only a “march for justice.”
Early reports following Prigozhin’s statements suggest that Russian internal security forces are activating in response to Prigozhin’s statements and possible Wagner moves, primarily in Moscow and Rostov, and the Kremlin appears opposed to Prigozhin’s actions. Kremlin newswire TASS reported that security measures have been strengthened in Moscow and that Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) special police (OMON) and special rapid response (SOBR) units have been alerted of the situation. Russian sources posted footage reportedly showing military equipment moving through the streets of Moscow. TASS also reported that Russian military personnel and law enforcement have set up military posts and checkpoints near the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, and BBC’s Russia Service reported that Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) employees and SOBR units have set up roadblocks along the Moscow-Voronezh-Rostov highway. A Russian milblogger also claimed that the “Grom” special forces detachment of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) has additionally activated. The FSB and Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee have both opened cases against Prigozhin. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov notably stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed and is aware of the situation. The emergency activation of the domestic security forces and the Kremlin’s direct response suggest that the Kremlin was very likely not aware of, and is explicitly opposed to, Prigozhin’s actions.
An armed Wagner attack against the Russian military leadership in Rostov-on-Don would have significant impacts on Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Rostov-on-Don houses both the headquarters of the SMD, whose 58th Combined Arms Army is currently decisively engaged in defensive operations against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine, and the command center for the Russian Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine as a whole. Rostov-on-Don is therefore a critical command and control membrane for the Russian army, and any threats to the MoD’s presence are likely to have ramifications on some critical aspects of the war effort.
Ryan, as a fan of your intellectual and thoughtful approach. Get some sleep before you publish anything. It's 0000 where I am, and probably worse than that where you are. I know you know this, but don't get pushed into "the black" by moving fast and hard on this. Do what you do best. Be rational, think it out, and engage when the timing suits you.
this is a case of if it walks like a. duck and talks like a duck, though in this case it could be Daffy Duck. I just feel sad for everyone in Moscow, and Russia, that have been getting very little real news about the intrusion into Ukraine and now this....
When I first saw reporting on this I thought it was probably BS, but now I know it isn't...
This will be interesting to see how it turns out... I feel for those stuck in the middle of all this who will pay a price for something they probably never asked for...
Prigozhin has always been a weird political project of Putin. His statements so far don't mention Putin. So far, I see the FSB and MoD brass becoming isolated in Moscow. Putin is nowhere to be seen but also no one is tracking his jet to Uganda. It's early in a confusing situation but to me it looks like Putin, Prigozhin, and the St. Petersburg clique are throwing the generals and spies under the proverbial bus. They will get the blame for the war and its results. Note that this does not mean peace or withdrawal is necessarily nigh, though I expect Ukraine to exploit the situation at the front. Rather, Putin and Prigozhin may have calculated that defeat is inevitable and this is how they are dealing with it. I note that the fake videos of supposed attacks on Wagner are consistent with Prigozhin making up his own myth, just like the "Wagner line" land art installations and curating his image abroad through courts. Is there really a single, 50-km long column? I doubt it, in fact I suspect Wagner has infiltrated forces into Moscow for days or weeks, but that's a great story to tell Russian kids one day. Isn't it? EDIT: Putin just spoke, he looked rattled and called it "treason" but didn't mention Prigozhin by name. Clearly he didn't see this coming and Prigo is off the reservation.
Denys suggests Putin will use Pregoshin to pin blame on Gerasimov etc, kill them, put Pregoshin in charge of military, so now can partial withdraw with dignity.
Ryan apologies for the dumb civilian question here, and further this may be more on geopolitics than military matters so apologies in advance for that.
To preface I'm not saying that Russia allowed this, but that Wagner orchestrated it in a moment of Russian vulnerability.
It looks like Prigozhin/Wagner just got a massive concession in being allowed to "leave" for Belarus. Given that flight trackers put the Belarus "Air Force One" as rushing to Turkiye during the march to Moscow, is there a chance that this was an elaborate setup for Prigozhin to effectively take over Belarus? Because I can't imagine a scenario where Moscow cannot seriously impede this force but Minsk somehow can. And a Belarus that will play ball in military intention seems to be more valuable to Putin than PMC Wagner being tapped out across multiple fronts.
I am guessing someone isn't getting much sleep tonight. A few of them are subscribers waiting for what Ryan can dig up.
As Austin Powers said..... "MOLE!!!!
Moley moley moley mole!!!!!" Lol.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed. Prigozhin amplified a video from a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel on June 23 which reportedly shows the aftermath of a missile strike on a rear-area Wagner camp and accused the Russian MoD of conducting that strike. ISW cannot independently verify the veracity of the video, and it may have been manufactured for informational purposes. Prigozhin used the video to then justify his most explicit rhetorical escalation against the Russian MoD to date and a call for action against the Russian MoD. Prigozhin claimed that the Wagner Commanders’ Council made the decision to stop “the evil brought by the military leadership” who neglect and destroy the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers. Prigozhin urged the Russian people not to resist, to remain calm, remain in their homes, and warned that Wagner will “deal” with those who destroyed Russian soldiers before returning to the frontlines in Ukraine after restoring justice for all. Prigozhin also notably accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu of personally planning an operation to destroy Wagner and claimed that 25,000 Wagner personnel are prepared to act. Prigozhin later posted an audio message qualifying his previous statements and claiming that there is no “coup,” only a “march for justice.”
Early reports following Prigozhin’s statements suggest that Russian internal security forces are activating in response to Prigozhin’s statements and possible Wagner moves, primarily in Moscow and Rostov, and the Kremlin appears opposed to Prigozhin’s actions. Kremlin newswire TASS reported that security measures have been strengthened in Moscow and that Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) special police (OMON) and special rapid response (SOBR) units have been alerted of the situation. Russian sources posted footage reportedly showing military equipment moving through the streets of Moscow. TASS also reported that Russian military personnel and law enforcement have set up military posts and checkpoints near the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, and BBC’s Russia Service reported that Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) employees and SOBR units have set up roadblocks along the Moscow-Voronezh-Rostov highway. A Russian milblogger also claimed that the “Grom” special forces detachment of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) has additionally activated. The FSB and Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee have both opened cases against Prigozhin. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov notably stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin has been informed and is aware of the situation. The emergency activation of the domestic security forces and the Kremlin’s direct response suggest that the Kremlin was very likely not aware of, and is explicitly opposed to, Prigozhin’s actions.
An armed Wagner attack against the Russian military leadership in Rostov-on-Don would have significant impacts on Russia’s war effort in Ukraine. Rostov-on-Don houses both the headquarters of the SMD, whose 58th Combined Arms Army is currently decisively engaged in defensive operations against Ukrainian counteroffensives in southern Ukraine, and the command center for the Russian Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine as a whole. Rostov-on-Don is therefore a critical command and control membrane for the Russian army, and any threats to the MoD’s presence are likely to have ramifications on some critical aspects of the war effort.
Ryan, as a fan of your intellectual and thoughtful approach. Get some sleep before you publish anything. It's 0000 where I am, and probably worse than that where you are. I know you know this, but don't get pushed into "the black" by moving fast and hard on this. Do what you do best. Be rational, think it out, and engage when the timing suits you.
actually Ryan, I NEED TO KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW!!! I bought a t shirt and I want value for my money. (kidding, self care first)
If Wagner fails, all their fighters will be criminals on the run from every NATO nation.
I think they will still be fine in Africa. There is always someone wanting their skills.
The US has teams there. They will welcome the hunt.
hmmm... does that mean... they're worried about an uprising, or a coup, or they are the coup?
this is a case of if it walks like a. duck and talks like a duck, though in this case it could be Daffy Duck. I just feel sad for everyone in Moscow, and Russia, that have been getting very little real news about the intrusion into Ukraine and now this....
I found out this was going on before most people because of a substack notification. Thank you for the timely alert.
When I first saw reporting on this I thought it was probably BS, but now I know it isn't...
This will be interesting to see how it turns out... I feel for those stuck in the middle of all this who will pay a price for something they probably never asked for...
Prigozhin has always been a weird political project of Putin. His statements so far don't mention Putin. So far, I see the FSB and MoD brass becoming isolated in Moscow. Putin is nowhere to be seen but also no one is tracking his jet to Uganda. It's early in a confusing situation but to me it looks like Putin, Prigozhin, and the St. Petersburg clique are throwing the generals and spies under the proverbial bus. They will get the blame for the war and its results. Note that this does not mean peace or withdrawal is necessarily nigh, though I expect Ukraine to exploit the situation at the front. Rather, Putin and Prigozhin may have calculated that defeat is inevitable and this is how they are dealing with it. I note that the fake videos of supposed attacks on Wagner are consistent with Prigozhin making up his own myth, just like the "Wagner line" land art installations and curating his image abroad through courts. Is there really a single, 50-km long column? I doubt it, in fact I suspect Wagner has infiltrated forces into Moscow for days or weeks, but that's a great story to tell Russian kids one day. Isn't it? EDIT: Putin just spoke, he looked rattled and called it "treason" but didn't mention Prigozhin by name. Clearly he didn't see this coming and Prigo is off the reservation.
Operation Valkyrie anyone?
I think Pregozen is staging a coup against the Military leadership and possibly Putin himself...
*Yevgeny Prigozhin, not "Zen" (вге́ний Ви́кторович Приго́жин)
Keep up the work!
Denys suggests Putin will use Pregoshin to pin blame on Gerasimov etc, kill them, put Pregoshin in charge of military, so now can partial withdraw with dignity.
Ryan apologies for the dumb civilian question here, and further this may be more on geopolitics than military matters so apologies in advance for that.
To preface I'm not saying that Russia allowed this, but that Wagner orchestrated it in a moment of Russian vulnerability.
It looks like Prigozhin/Wagner just got a massive concession in being allowed to "leave" for Belarus. Given that flight trackers put the Belarus "Air Force One" as rushing to Turkiye during the march to Moscow, is there a chance that this was an elaborate setup for Prigozhin to effectively take over Belarus? Because I can't imagine a scenario where Moscow cannot seriously impede this force but Minsk somehow can. And a Belarus that will play ball in military intention seems to be more valuable to Putin than PMC Wagner being tapped out across multiple fronts.
Ryan: Do you think this was a false flag by Prigozhin?
It's seems strange that Prig got so angry, declares war on the military COC, and then quits 24 hours later.
The consequences of his action is everybody is pardoned and Prig is now "exciled". To Belarus....
The whole thing seems very fishy.
Putin now has a solution to his Wagner problem.
Can blame his military leaders for failure in Ukraine.
And he just mobilized a lot of forces on Ukrain's border.
And possibly even saves "face" in the end.
Any thoughts?
I hope someone has a firm hand on the command and control of the Russian Nukes.
Has anyone seen Condi Rice? She was the resident expert on the Russians during the Bush years and I have not seen her opine on anything in years.