Oh, I am a very rational thinker. I have just never met or heard of anyone claim that they support Biden. Plus, I know a lot of lifetime democrats here in Michigan.
I voted for Biden in a vote against Trump, which is a fucked up dilemma. We need younger critical thinking leaders. The polarization between democrats and republicans is manufactured, which bothers me. I wish we’d argue about individual issues rather than DEM!! REPUB!!!. We’re stuck distracted and fighting while they feast on our scraps. I’d vote for McBeth no matter what party he was listed on
You're serious, aren't you? You claim to be a rational thinker but would suggest that others vote for a science-of-vaccines denier, and science in general? Now you're just trolling.
Yeah, not an easy choice, I admit, what with Trump increasing the annual budget deficit from $526B to $3200B, praising authoritarian leaders like Putin, Xi, RocketMan, Orban, and talking about pulling out of NATO, and trusting Putin's personal word over the consensus of American Intelligence agencies. Out of curiosity, did you vote for Trump both times?
You understand that the Whitehouse didn't know doesn't literally mean no person in the building knew but that Biden and his close staff didn't know right? Whether or not some people in a room in the WH (which has quite a few staffers) knew doesn't tell you if the 'Whitehouse' knew and seems totally irrelevant - and yes obviously people who should have informed the senior administration did know which is why it's so embarrassing.
Sure, maybe it smells funny or you think it's implausible that the NMCC didn't inform the president. I'm not so sure (do they report to Austin). But you don't know if anyone is lying and the difference between a good journalist and someone who shares misinformation is distinguishing between what you know and what you suspect. And if you want to back up a claim like that you better identify a specific statement and the eliminate all other plausible interpretations/possibilities (eg Biden didn't know because the NMCC people assumed Austin had obviously informed people about a volountary surgery).
And for all you've been going on about expertise lately the major news organizations may not have many vets but they are intimately familiar with the Whitehouse and how it works. Much more so than you are (many have worked there and, if not, been invited inside to talk to and chat with the people who do). So it seems a bit ironic for you to be suggesting that you know more than them about this issue.
The lthing that's so embarrassing is that Biden and his senior staff wasn't informed. If they knew it wouldn't be a thing. So yes, I believe people are able to fuck up in surprisingly incompetent ways and that when they admit to it rather than saying something that wouldn't have made them look bad they aren't lying.
With everything that’s going on it’s seems an interesting focus of attention. Does this seem worthy of this much attention? This seems like a distraction story that would be run by certain outlets that cater to ratings of a certain group. Put it up there with Jewish Space Lasers, Blue Tarps, Under ground tunnels in Disney World, Kid Napping network using said tunnels, lizard people, Trump still in command of the military but not responsible for the Afghan Withdrawal that he actually did broker before unwillingly being Voted out of office...
Interesting. Though I would suggest the perception of weakness (or incompetence) exists for a reason. Their efforts to control the narrative be damned Is the old saying, "the coverup is worse than the crime" going to apply to this situation?
Ryan I've been following you since your recent interview with Tim Mak, and have become a subscriber. Thank-you for sharing your immense expertise! But I must admit this post makes me nervous. Should we know this? Transparency is a good thing, but I know my place. I sincerely hope this doesn't make you a target. Or worse, your posts get used by hostile interests. Please tell me if I'm just being paranoid, because I am NO fan of the NYT.
I think this is a knowledge is power issue. The media now have 24/7/365 to fill with news. If you watch Ryan talk about seeding, harvesting, and amplifying, the media does it, too, without regard necessarily for politics, but for profits.
There are daily slides and weekly slides. Weekly slides contain projected events with supporting facts and the dailies contains actual events. Upper management look's at the weekly slides (big picture). Since he was transported by ambulance the weekly slide may have had his projected status as convalescence leave and at that level you are always available. Probably some staff weenie did not think it important enough to notify the chain of command of the status change for some reason.
If you hear hoof beats think horses, not zebras, but reality based thinking does not generate social media hits like complicated unprovable conspiracy theories.
Imagine your some guy working in that room in the Whitehouse. Every previous time a senior official in the nuclear chain of command had a medical issue they or their staff informed POTUS themselves. After all it would be irresponsible not to.
Do you go knock on the chief of staff's door and go: "Hey I know you're super busy but just in case my boss is being super irresponsible and didn't tell you I thought I should let you know he's in the hospital. Ohh, and if you already knew could you maybe not mention I thought he might not have informed you?"
So what's so hard to believe about the idea no one thought to let Biden or his senior political staff know? The Whitehouse would much rather the news say they did know. Saying "We were aware of the situation and trusted his deputy and the chain of command" would have made this a non-story so the simplest explanation is they are only admitting it because it actually happened.
Let's talk about working with CCIRs and senior leader personal staff. Senior leaders spend time crafting and reviewing their CCIRs so information they deem important is reported to them in a timely manner; often these CCIRs come in categories, one of which is a "call me at any time" or "walk into my office directly" category to give staff a means to immediately report things the senior leader determines to be exigent or critical. Senior leader personal staff are usually hand-picked and would be comfortable interrupting professionally to share such an important notification. Seems unlikely that POTUS would be dramatically different here and I would bet my paycheck that hospitalization of one of his cabinet members falls into the aforementioned category.
I certainly agree that if they believed they had critical information that would be true. The problem is they had no reason to believe that. Every time in the past a defense secretary had to go in for volountary surgery I'm sure it wasn't left to these guys to report it up the chain.
The problem is the only reason they have to be the ones to inform senior staff is if they suspect their direct boss is withholding information.
And maybe even 9/10 times they do report it anyway. It doesn't need to be the likely thing to happen just that it's something that could go wrong.
When the people are being lied to by the government, the government has no reason to wonder why they don't get trusted.. The more and more you look at history the more and more you see it's been going on for nearly 40-60 years of just absolute deception.
Think back to operation Mongoose.
When the CIA wanted to do a false flag attack to make the US and its citizens support a war with Cuba.
But political "philosophers" like Leo Strauss and Irving Kristol (father of pundit Bill Kristol), have been quite public about their opinions regarding deception as a necessary function of an informed government to get an ignorant/uninformed public to support policy choices deemed best for the nation--deemed, that is, by those in power. They philosophically supported "noble lies," a concept introduced in Plato's "Republic." Fascinating stuff:
"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn't work."
—Irving Kristol, quoted by Ronald Bailey, Ronald Bailey: Origin of the Specious
I happen to agree with his premise, but despise his conclusion. It seems to be, however, the basis of my understanding of who originally had the right to vote: those alleged to be intelligent, rational, and informed--white, landing-owning MALES. Patriarchy anyone?
Regarding the CIA Op you describe, it sounds like Operation Northwoods. Mongoose was to be a terror and sabotage campaign WITHIN Cuba and Kennedy nixed it at the beginning of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Ah, thank YOU. One who can admit they are wrong is one I admire and would emulate. Any who profess to teach do well to remember that history is a moving target and they must remain students who observe history changing as victors change. I am forever a student and invite rebuttal. How else would I grow?
Why do you put the likelihood as unlikely? From everything else you said I would have expected very unlikely or almost no chance -- 20-45% seems crazy high for "there is an office whose sole purpose is to track the location of the individual it is claimed we didn't know the location of".
Ryan, nobody is lying and I think you may be discounting the simplest and most likely answer: incompetence or a mistake. Never underestimate the power of people to make assumptions that "someone is making the notifications" and be wrong.
Classic example: the 2007 Unathorized Movement of Nuclear Weapons from Minot AFB to Barksdale AFB. It should never be possible to move nuclear weapons, even on the base, without half a dozen command centers knowing. Yet, it happened that 9 nuclear armed missiles were flown by an unaware B-52 crew from North Dakota to Lousiana and the mistake was not discovered until hours later.
The simplest answer for the reason "no one" knew the SECDEF was in the hospital is he went in for a routine appointment that found something that needed to be addressed immediately that turned into a longer stay. The EA knew and just assumed everyone else did since those notifications are "automatic." SECDEF assumed everyone working for him was doing their job. It was only later when everyone realized the initial notifications had not been made and it went unreported for weeks.
I read in the WaPo that Secretary Austin’s 2i/c was up to speed on all operational matters of significance, and it is long standing policy that the chain of command succession and resiliency plan would be implemented without further Congressional authorization required, under circumstances such as this.
All this media squabbling is nothing but smoke and mirrors, distracting people from actual strategic matters that could seriously fuck up EVERYBODY’S life, happening overseas in the Middle East.
Bearing all that in mind, Secretary Austin’s brief medical leave is a matter between him and his Physicians. The grownups have things well in hand, go back to sleep.
It's an election year. The administration cannot show weakness. The headlines write themselves: "Biden exposes the nation to danger when his SecDef goes to ER." I expect that the administration was hoping he'd be back at work before any reporter would ever know he had a medical issue. Of course, I remember when the press took photos of Reagan from his hospital room window and cheered him on for being in a hospital, but that was before the 24 hour news cycle and the deep, orchestrated divide between the left and the right.
What shows weakness is being unaware. They'd hugely prefer a story that said: Biden knew the whole time and was confident in the ability of Austin's staff to handle the situation in his absence.
Literally what makes the story embarrassing is not knowing.
Good point. Puzzling why the press secretary went that route. In any case, the 24-hour media has moved on from this story. On to the next spectacle! Bigger than the last, we promise (to make you forget what was so darn important last week)!
I suspect because it really was true that Biden didn't know and the press had sources that could confirm that.
Trying to insist that the Whitehouse 'knew' because people in the NMCC knew even if they didn't pass it up to senior political staffers (Biden, chief of staff etc) would have just made things worse. And it's totally plausible that the people in NMCC who aren't usually in the buisness of updating the president about the whereabouts of his SecDef etc didn't realize they should in this case (say bc usually when something like this goes down the individual informs their boss themselves).
I mean just imagine your some guy working in that room. Every previous time someone had a volountary surgery they or their staff informed POTUS. Do you go knock on the chief of staff's door and go: "Hey I know you're super busy but just in case my boss is being super irresponsible I thought I should let you know... Ohh, and if you already knew could you maybe not mention I thought he might not have informed you?"
Secretary Austin sent a message to the American people that Biden, nor anyone in his cabinet, are in charge. Biden is a puppet for Obama. The DNC keeps a puppet in positions 1 and 2 because they can be easily replaced.
Or no one knowing that dozens of classified, Top Secret, and SCI documents ended up at Mar-a-Lago. The National Archives knew and asked for them back. The public didn't find out about it until the FBI went there.
I’m a democrat pro Biden. and you need to report this . Good job
Here, here. We should apply the same standard to our leaders regardless of party affiliation.
Wow, and you admit it ?
The culture war has made you think that rationality doesn’t exist, when it does
Oh, I am a very rational thinker. I have just never met or heard of anyone claim that they support Biden. Plus, I know a lot of lifetime democrats here in Michigan.
I voted for Biden in a vote against Trump, which is a fucked up dilemma. We need younger critical thinking leaders. The polarization between democrats and republicans is manufactured, which bothers me. I wish we’d argue about individual issues rather than DEM!! REPUB!!!. We’re stuck distracted and fighting while they feast on our scraps. I’d vote for McBeth no matter what party he was listed on
You are making a strong case to vote for RFK, Jr.
You're serious, aren't you? You claim to be a rational thinker but would suggest that others vote for a science-of-vaccines denier, and science in general? Now you're just trolling.
Yeah, not an easy choice, I admit, what with Trump increasing the annual budget deficit from $526B to $3200B, praising authoritarian leaders like Putin, Xi, RocketMan, Orban, and talking about pulling out of NATO, and trusting Putin's personal word over the consensus of American Intelligence agencies. Out of curiosity, did you vote for Trump both times?
You understand that the Whitehouse didn't know doesn't literally mean no person in the building knew but that Biden and his close staff didn't know right? Whether or not some people in a room in the WH (which has quite a few staffers) knew doesn't tell you if the 'Whitehouse' knew and seems totally irrelevant - and yes obviously people who should have informed the senior administration did know which is why it's so embarrassing.
Sure, maybe it smells funny or you think it's implausible that the NMCC didn't inform the president. I'm not so sure (do they report to Austin). But you don't know if anyone is lying and the difference between a good journalist and someone who shares misinformation is distinguishing between what you know and what you suspect. And if you want to back up a claim like that you better identify a specific statement and the eliminate all other plausible interpretations/possibilities (eg Biden didn't know because the NMCC people assumed Austin had obviously informed people about a volountary surgery).
And for all you've been going on about expertise lately the major news organizations may not have many vets but they are intimately familiar with the Whitehouse and how it works. Much more so than you are (many have worked there and, if not, been invited inside to talk to and chat with the people who do). So it seems a bit ironic for you to be suggesting that you know more than them about this issue.
The lthing that's so embarrassing is that Biden and his senior staff wasn't informed. If they knew it wouldn't be a thing. So yes, I believe people are able to fuck up in surprisingly incompetent ways and that when they admit to it rather than saying something that wouldn't have made them look bad they aren't lying.
You’re now on a list mate. lol
With everything that’s going on it’s seems an interesting focus of attention. Does this seem worthy of this much attention? This seems like a distraction story that would be run by certain outlets that cater to ratings of a certain group. Put it up there with Jewish Space Lasers, Blue Tarps, Under ground tunnels in Disney World, Kid Napping network using said tunnels, lizard people, Trump still in command of the military but not responsible for the Afghan Withdrawal that he actually did broker before unwillingly being Voted out of office...
Yeah, something doesn't add up. I'm not sure if we're witnessing incompetence, corruption or some other aspect.
The aspect is avoidance of perception of weakness. Hyperpartisanship requires this avoidance behavior. It demands it.
Interesting. Though I would suggest the perception of weakness (or incompetence) exists for a reason. Their efforts to control the narrative be damned Is the old saying, "the coverup is worse than the crime" going to apply to this situation?
It applied to Nixon!
Yes
Ryan I've been following you since your recent interview with Tim Mak, and have become a subscriber. Thank-you for sharing your immense expertise! But I must admit this post makes me nervous. Should we know this? Transparency is a good thing, but I know my place. I sincerely hope this doesn't make you a target. Or worse, your posts get used by hostile interests. Please tell me if I'm just being paranoid, because I am NO fan of the NYT.
I think this is a knowledge is power issue. The media now have 24/7/365 to fill with news. If you watch Ryan talk about seeding, harvesting, and amplifying, the media does it, too, without regard necessarily for politics, but for profits.
I see I'm going to learn lots here.
There are daily slides and weekly slides. Weekly slides contain projected events with supporting facts and the dailies contains actual events. Upper management look's at the weekly slides (big picture). Since he was transported by ambulance the weekly slide may have had his projected status as convalescence leave and at that level you are always available. Probably some staff weenie did not think it important enough to notify the chain of command of the status change for some reason.
If you hear hoof beats think horses, not zebras, but reality based thinking does not generate social media hits like complicated unprovable conspiracy theories.
Imagine your some guy working in that room in the Whitehouse. Every previous time a senior official in the nuclear chain of command had a medical issue they or their staff informed POTUS themselves. After all it would be irresponsible not to.
Do you go knock on the chief of staff's door and go: "Hey I know you're super busy but just in case my boss is being super irresponsible and didn't tell you I thought I should let you know he's in the hospital. Ohh, and if you already knew could you maybe not mention I thought he might not have informed you?"
So what's so hard to believe about the idea no one thought to let Biden or his senior political staff know? The Whitehouse would much rather the news say they did know. Saying "We were aware of the situation and trusted his deputy and the chain of command" would have made this a non-story so the simplest explanation is they are only admitting it because it actually happened.
Let's talk about working with CCIRs and senior leader personal staff. Senior leaders spend time crafting and reviewing their CCIRs so information they deem important is reported to them in a timely manner; often these CCIRs come in categories, one of which is a "call me at any time" or "walk into my office directly" category to give staff a means to immediately report things the senior leader determines to be exigent or critical. Senior leader personal staff are usually hand-picked and would be comfortable interrupting professionally to share such an important notification. Seems unlikely that POTUS would be dramatically different here and I would bet my paycheck that hospitalization of one of his cabinet members falls into the aforementioned category.
I certainly agree that if they believed they had critical information that would be true. The problem is they had no reason to believe that. Every time in the past a defense secretary had to go in for volountary surgery I'm sure it wasn't left to these guys to report it up the chain.
The problem is the only reason they have to be the ones to inform senior staff is if they suspect their direct boss is withholding information.
And maybe even 9/10 times they do report it anyway. It doesn't need to be the likely thing to happen just that it's something that could go wrong.
When the people are being lied to by the government, the government has no reason to wonder why they don't get trusted.. The more and more you look at history the more and more you see it's been going on for nearly 40-60 years of just absolute deception.
Think back to operation Mongoose.
When the CIA wanted to do a false flag attack to make the US and its citizens support a war with Cuba.
40-60 years? Might be longer than that: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change
But political "philosophers" like Leo Strauss and Irving Kristol (father of pundit Bill Kristol), have been quite public about their opinions regarding deception as a necessary function of an informed government to get an ignorant/uninformed public to support policy choices deemed best for the nation--deemed, that is, by those in power. They philosophically supported "noble lies," a concept introduced in Plato's "Republic." Fascinating stuff:
"There are different kinds of truths for different kinds of people. There are truths appropriate for children; truths that are appropriate for students; truths that are appropriate for educated adults; and truths that are appropriate for highly educated adults, and the notion that there should be one set of truths available to everyone is a modern democratic fallacy. It doesn't work."
—Irving Kristol, quoted by Ronald Bailey, Ronald Bailey: Origin of the Specious
I happen to agree with his premise, but despise his conclusion. It seems to be, however, the basis of my understanding of who originally had the right to vote: those alleged to be intelligent, rational, and informed--white, landing-owning MALES. Patriarchy anyone?
Regarding the CIA Op you describe, it sounds like Operation Northwoods. Mongoose was to be a terror and sabotage campaign WITHIN Cuba and Kennedy nixed it at the beginning of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
You are correct about the CIA operation. Thanks for pointing that out.
Ah, thank YOU. One who can admit they are wrong is one I admire and would emulate. Any who profess to teach do well to remember that history is a moving target and they must remain students who observe history changing as victors change. I am forever a student and invite rebuttal. How else would I grow?
Why do you put the likelihood as unlikely? From everything else you said I would have expected very unlikely or almost no chance -- 20-45% seems crazy high for "there is an office whose sole purpose is to track the location of the individual it is claimed we didn't know the location of".
Ryan, nobody is lying and I think you may be discounting the simplest and most likely answer: incompetence or a mistake. Never underestimate the power of people to make assumptions that "someone is making the notifications" and be wrong.
Classic example: the 2007 Unathorized Movement of Nuclear Weapons from Minot AFB to Barksdale AFB. It should never be possible to move nuclear weapons, even on the base, without half a dozen command centers knowing. Yet, it happened that 9 nuclear armed missiles were flown by an unaware B-52 crew from North Dakota to Lousiana and the mistake was not discovered until hours later.
(see report: https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADA557097.)
The simplest answer for the reason "no one" knew the SECDEF was in the hospital is he went in for a routine appointment that found something that needed to be addressed immediately that turned into a longer stay. The EA knew and just assumed everyone else did since those notifications are "automatic." SECDEF assumed everyone working for him was doing their job. It was only later when everyone realized the initial notifications had not been made and it went unreported for weeks.
Serious screw-up? Yup
Conspiracy? Not bloody likely.
I read in the WaPo that Secretary Austin’s 2i/c was up to speed on all operational matters of significance, and it is long standing policy that the chain of command succession and resiliency plan would be implemented without further Congressional authorization required, under circumstances such as this.
All this media squabbling is nothing but smoke and mirrors, distracting people from actual strategic matters that could seriously fuck up EVERYBODY’S life, happening overseas in the Middle East.
Bearing all that in mind, Secretary Austin’s brief medical leave is a matter between him and his Physicians. The grownups have things well in hand, go back to sleep.
Ryan, I’m usually with you, but this is extremely sloppy thinking.
The whole reason this was a big story was BECAUSE this is not supposed to happen.
And your reasoning seems to be, “This is not supposed to happen, therefore this could not have happened, therefore this did not happen.”
It's an election year. The administration cannot show weakness. The headlines write themselves: "Biden exposes the nation to danger when his SecDef goes to ER." I expect that the administration was hoping he'd be back at work before any reporter would ever know he had a medical issue. Of course, I remember when the press took photos of Reagan from his hospital room window and cheered him on for being in a hospital, but that was before the 24 hour news cycle and the deep, orchestrated divide between the left and the right.
In graphic format: https://www.businessinsider.com/animation-rise-partisanship-congress-house-representatives-60-years-2016-4
What shows weakness is being unaware. They'd hugely prefer a story that said: Biden knew the whole time and was confident in the ability of Austin's staff to handle the situation in his absence.
Literally what makes the story embarrassing is not knowing.
Good point. Puzzling why the press secretary went that route. In any case, the 24-hour media has moved on from this story. On to the next spectacle! Bigger than the last, we promise (to make you forget what was so darn important last week)!
I suspect because it really was true that Biden didn't know and the press had sources that could confirm that.
Trying to insist that the Whitehouse 'knew' because people in the NMCC knew even if they didn't pass it up to senior political staffers (Biden, chief of staff etc) would have just made things worse. And it's totally plausible that the people in NMCC who aren't usually in the buisness of updating the president about the whereabouts of his SecDef etc didn't realize they should in this case (say bc usually when something like this goes down the individual informs their boss themselves).
I mean just imagine your some guy working in that room. Every previous time someone had a volountary surgery they or their staff informed POTUS. Do you go knock on the chief of staff's door and go: "Hey I know you're super busy but just in case my boss is being super irresponsible I thought I should let you know... Ohh, and if you already knew could you maybe not mention I thought he might not have informed you?"
Secretary Austin sent a message to the American people that Biden, nor anyone in his cabinet, are in charge. Biden is a puppet for Obama. The DNC keeps a puppet in positions 1 and 2 because they can be easily replaced.
hold on a sec. Let me get my tinfoil hat before I read more...
That’s like no one knowing that Clinton was being serviced in the Oval Office.
Or no one knowing that dozens of classified, Top Secret, and SCI documents ended up at Mar-a-Lago. The National Archives knew and asked for them back. The public didn't find out about it until the FBI went there.