Thoughtful piece, Ryan, thanks for doing this. I think you are in partial error in describing Israel as having what we would call a “free press”. First because they just banned Al Jazeera and tend to be very tough on anybody they think is sympathetic to their enemies, and second because the Israeli press generally are self-censoring footage of the destruction in Gaza because they think its bad for the war moral. I imagine if there was a story floating around about this launcher being damaged, it would be considered a matter of national security and nobody would run it. Of course, I could be completely wrong about that, but it would be a pretty major story. I think it is easy for average Americans to not fully understand the bunker mentality of many Israelis, a sense that they are engaged in a truly existential war, and particularly how deeply the October 7th atrocities remain very much in the foreground of Israeli public thinking, where the event has largely been eclipsed by the Gaza destruction and civilian casualties in the US.
I think this is very possibly a rendering from an off the shelf video game with perhaps some custom assets, post processed to give it a lo-fi feel. Look at the details in the video especially towards the end, everything is so smooth, and the pain job on the launcher doesn't match the reference photos at all.
Comment 3. Hezbollah claimed that the attack was not with a UAV but a Almas ATGM which is allegedly a copy of the Israeli Spike ATGM. The Israeli think tank "Alma" (I do not know how reliable they are) says Hezbollah has the Almas 2 with 8 km range and Almas 3 with 16 km range. From the same think tank, they say these missiles can fly up at 150 m before coming down to attack.
possibility 1
You would have to consult with an AT guy, but one possibility is that this attack was with an Almas, ATGMs are hard (impossible?) to intercept but I have one problem with this: the concrete blocks presumably face west (Lebanon) so the missile would be coming from the east. The closest Lebanese area that Hezbollah could launch from the east I could find in Google Earth is 18 km and the missile would have to fly over Israel. So the question to an AT guy, could a Spike / Almas circle around 180 degrees?
possibility 2
This was a UAV like Hezbollah used on Hurfeish and all three UAVs were not detected. One possibility raised by some Israelis is that Hezbollah is using the time since October 7 to learn Israeli defenses in anticipation of the next round (the imminent Hezbollah - Israel war). Some people allege that the recent uptick of Hezbollah attacks on Israel signal that Iran considers the Hamas-Israel war winding down and want to capitalize on their victory by launching an attack very soon.
If this place is Ramot Naftali, it can't be a training base, because according to Google Earth it is the front line.
If you look at the 4th concrete block, you see a vertical black strip. That could be the antenna and it is positioned to cast that shadow.
Hezbollah (like Hamas) remotely launch munitions from pre-placed launchers. Their troops have no danger from counter-battery fire.
According to Israeli reports, they have 95% success rate of intercepting UAVs. For that reason, Hezbollah launches around 100 a day so that 5 will get through.
The same day that this attack happened, a different attack happened at the Israeli village of Hurfeish that included two weapons, they killed one soldier (Rafael Kauders) and wounded 12 others. The Israel paper YNET reported these were two UAVs that were not detected and it was a "double tap": the second UAV was timed to hit medical teams who came to help after the first hit.
Comment 1: You consider Hamas junior varsity and Hezbollah varsity. Both are separate Iranian proxy armies with capabilities dictated by their purpose.
Hamas is about 30k fighters. Iran used them to launch an attack on Israel with something like 1-2k fighters and then retreat to their fortifications (urban area / tunnels) for an Israeli counter attack. Their plan was massive IDF casualties in the tunnels and massive civilian deaths in the cities. In these they failed: the civilian deaths are incomprehensibly low (due to IDF professionalism) and they IDF has not entered the tunnels / used scouting drones so their deaths are also relatively limited. That said, thanks to American resupply, Hamas has managed to enter a war of attrition which will ended by US dictate: either forced Israeli retreat (Hamas victory) or greenlight for destruction of Hamas (Israeli victory).
Hezbollah is a huge and professional force with massive missile capabilities. Israeli generals have publicly said that in case of full war, Hezbollah will be able to hit Israeli strategic targets and major population for a week before being neutralized, and that is before the US imposed an embargo on 2000 pound bombs needed to take out Hezbollah tunnels. Their main purpose is to deter Israel from attacking Iran and their secondary purpose is displacement of 100k Israeli citizens from the north and causing financial damage.
Well there goes Robert again. Making up fractured fairy tales. Al Jazeera's been kicked out and out right banned in a lot of the middle east. They are extremely biased. I read them regularly but it's like reading Fox news or WaPo you have to get there bias. As for his contention that Israeli's are being shielded from what's happening in Gaza that's as ludicrous as his contention that Israel doesn't have a free press. Read Haaretz if you want to see what gets published. I wonder where he gets his talking points or who gives him his talking points. It's obvious what his agenda is.
This is a tough one to figure out. Was the drone armed or was it just on recon. Since, as you said, there is no BDA we don't know what happened. This could have been a small quadcopter and the operator just decided to crash it into a target to see what damage they might do, hoping to get "lucky".
Thanks Ryan, I appreciate what you do. FYI, Haaretz is pronounced ha-aretz, ha meaning “the” and “aretz” meaning land or nation.
Thoughtful piece, Ryan, thanks for doing this. I think you are in partial error in describing Israel as having what we would call a “free press”. First because they just banned Al Jazeera and tend to be very tough on anybody they think is sympathetic to their enemies, and second because the Israeli press generally are self-censoring footage of the destruction in Gaza because they think its bad for the war moral. I imagine if there was a story floating around about this launcher being damaged, it would be considered a matter of national security and nobody would run it. Of course, I could be completely wrong about that, but it would be a pretty major story. I think it is easy for average Americans to not fully understand the bunker mentality of many Israelis, a sense that they are engaged in a truly existential war, and particularly how deeply the October 7th atrocities remain very much in the foreground of Israeli public thinking, where the event has largely been eclipsed by the Gaza destruction and civilian casualties in the US.
I think this is very possibly a rendering from an off the shelf video game with perhaps some custom assets, post processed to give it a lo-fi feel. Look at the details in the video especially towards the end, everything is so smooth, and the pain job on the launcher doesn't match the reference photos at all.
As an example of what's possible with modern game engines: https://youtu.be/IK76q13Aqt0
That would also explain the discrepancies and odd placement of vehicles etc.
Comment 3. Hezbollah claimed that the attack was not with a UAV but a Almas ATGM which is allegedly a copy of the Israeli Spike ATGM. The Israeli think tank "Alma" (I do not know how reliable they are) says Hezbollah has the Almas 2 with 8 km range and Almas 3 with 16 km range. From the same think tank, they say these missiles can fly up at 150 m before coming down to attack.
possibility 1
You would have to consult with an AT guy, but one possibility is that this attack was with an Almas, ATGMs are hard (impossible?) to intercept but I have one problem with this: the concrete blocks presumably face west (Lebanon) so the missile would be coming from the east. The closest Lebanese area that Hezbollah could launch from the east I could find in Google Earth is 18 km and the missile would have to fly over Israel. So the question to an AT guy, could a Spike / Almas circle around 180 degrees?
possibility 2
This was a UAV like Hezbollah used on Hurfeish and all three UAVs were not detected. One possibility raised by some Israelis is that Hezbollah is using the time since October 7 to learn Israeli defenses in anticipation of the next round (the imminent Hezbollah - Israel war). Some people allege that the recent uptick of Hezbollah attacks on Israel signal that Iran considers the Hamas-Israel war winding down and want to capitalize on their victory by launching an attack very soon.
Comment 2:
If this place is Ramot Naftali, it can't be a training base, because according to Google Earth it is the front line.
If you look at the 4th concrete block, you see a vertical black strip. That could be the antenna and it is positioned to cast that shadow.
Hezbollah (like Hamas) remotely launch munitions from pre-placed launchers. Their troops have no danger from counter-battery fire.
According to Israeli reports, they have 95% success rate of intercepting UAVs. For that reason, Hezbollah launches around 100 a day so that 5 will get through.
The same day that this attack happened, a different attack happened at the Israeli village of Hurfeish that included two weapons, they killed one soldier (Rafael Kauders) and wounded 12 others. The Israel paper YNET reported these were two UAVs that were not detected and it was a "double tap": the second UAV was timed to hit medical teams who came to help after the first hit.
Comment 1: You consider Hamas junior varsity and Hezbollah varsity. Both are separate Iranian proxy armies with capabilities dictated by their purpose.
Hamas is about 30k fighters. Iran used them to launch an attack on Israel with something like 1-2k fighters and then retreat to their fortifications (urban area / tunnels) for an Israeli counter attack. Their plan was massive IDF casualties in the tunnels and massive civilian deaths in the cities. In these they failed: the civilian deaths are incomprehensibly low (due to IDF professionalism) and they IDF has not entered the tunnels / used scouting drones so their deaths are also relatively limited. That said, thanks to American resupply, Hamas has managed to enter a war of attrition which will ended by US dictate: either forced Israeli retreat (Hamas victory) or greenlight for destruction of Hamas (Israeli victory).
Hezbollah is a huge and professional force with massive missile capabilities. Israeli generals have publicly said that in case of full war, Hezbollah will be able to hit Israeli strategic targets and major population for a week before being neutralized, and that is before the US imposed an embargo on 2000 pound bombs needed to take out Hezbollah tunnels. Their main purpose is to deter Israel from attacking Iran and their secondary purpose is displacement of 100k Israeli citizens from the north and causing financial damage.
I’m really perplexed at how clear the antenna shadow is yet there’s no sign of an antenna in the video. But like you said, pretty inconclusive
Well there goes Robert again. Making up fractured fairy tales. Al Jazeera's been kicked out and out right banned in a lot of the middle east. They are extremely biased. I read them regularly but it's like reading Fox news or WaPo you have to get there bias. As for his contention that Israeli's are being shielded from what's happening in Gaza that's as ludicrous as his contention that Israel doesn't have a free press. Read Haaretz if you want to see what gets published. I wonder where he gets his talking points or who gives him his talking points. It's obvious what his agenda is.
This is a tough one to figure out. Was the drone armed or was it just on recon. Since, as you said, there is no BDA we don't know what happened. This could have been a small quadcopter and the operator just decided to crash it into a target to see what damage they might do, hoping to get "lucky".