Ryan, the average person like myself, would never have picked up on this! Its great having someone like yourself who has the knowledge and skills to show us the truth! In this day and age, we take so many things at face value and believe them. I agree with your last statement that if Russia would just leave this would not have happened! Thanks again Ryan look forward to your next video.
This of course means that 24 of the 28 megabytes of information were thrown away, and small details were necessarily lost in the process. The 28 megabytes, in turn, is lower-quality than a hypothetical raw-data file which would be about 800 MB (1280x720 x 1 byte per CMOS pixel x 25 FPS x 34 seconds + audio). However, most cameras never produce a raw data file in the first place; it's way too big. 10:1 compression, or more, is typically applied when a camera stores the initial version (typically not enough compression to degrade picture quality appreciably, though it depends on the camera configuration and, in any case, the compression algorithm on a camera will be optimized for speed rather than quality).
But the big news here is that apparently NYT agrees with CIT that the missile came from the Northwest (or so I assume from the headline, "Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy", as I don't have a NYT subscription). CIT's opinion[1] was that the missile could've been fired by Ukraine or Russia but, either way, hitting the market was likely accidental.
Edit: it's being reported that the missile was a 9M38 SAM (air defense) from a Buk[2]. CIT didn't list 9M38 in their big spreadsheet[3] but Buk missiles with 70kg warheads were listed as "matching" the explosion. Interesting to note that the missile that landed in Poland[4] is thought to be a S-300 air defense missile fired by Ukraine, so I guess these old Soviet systems have a problem with exploding on the ground when they miss their target (though I also heard S-300 missiles were designed to explode in the air after such a failure... or maybe a fuze malfunction could explain *both* the miss *and* exploding on the ground?)
Thank you Ryan! Please mention that the explosion might have been caused by a Buk SAM in your article and summarize the NYT article. NYT put the article behind a paywall, so many of us can’t access it.
This shows your integrity as well as technical excellence!
It’s too bad people on both side think of providing information as a game with “points.” I’d bet a bunch of the Russian commentators could have done better if they even tried to be careful. Not unbiased mind you, just careful. The size of the explosion was a dead giveaway and immediately obvious. Yet it was completely ignored insofar as I can tell by all the Russian media.
The Russian media would have a better chance at persuading if it didn’t say things that were clearly untrue. This is not to give a pass to the many instances of bad reporting on the Ukraine side. But it does seem like there are many commentators and reporters who are trying to tell the truth from their viewpoint.
This is why I believe and believe in you Ryan. So many media outlets report a story and move on. They only revisit the release if someone else catches their error and calls them on it. Most stories to out and are forgotten. I have great respect for your commitment to integrity and maintaining oversight of your work. Well done Sir. Thank you for the work.
Ryan: Thank you for sharing the CAT-UXO website description. I note that the Gadfly (BUK) has a home on non-jam capability and a Self-Destruct (SD) mechanism which is activated by its identification friend or foe (IFF) system. I assume that the operator of the Gadfly (BUK) is unable to activate the self-destruct if it flies off course. Here is a peek behind the NYTimes paywall to the article:
Thank you for being honest, and thank you for not losing sight that none of this would have happened had Russia not invaded land that is not theirs.
Ryan, the average person like myself, would never have picked up on this! Its great having someone like yourself who has the knowledge and skills to show us the truth! In this day and age, we take so many things at face value and believe them. I agree with your last statement that if Russia would just leave this would not have happened! Thanks again Ryan look forward to your next video.
The self-esteem of intellectuals
rests on the quality
of our analysis,
not on the content
of our conclusions.
—Alan Greenspan
This of course means that 24 of the 28 megabytes of information were thrown away, and small details were necessarily lost in the process. The 28 megabytes, in turn, is lower-quality than a hypothetical raw-data file which would be about 800 MB (1280x720 x 1 byte per CMOS pixel x 25 FPS x 34 seconds + audio). However, most cameras never produce a raw data file in the first place; it's way too big. 10:1 compression, or more, is typically applied when a camera stores the initial version (typically not enough compression to degrade picture quality appreciably, though it depends on the camera configuration and, in any case, the compression algorithm on a camera will be optimized for speed rather than quality).
But the big news here is that apparently NYT agrees with CIT that the missile came from the Northwest (or so I assume from the headline, "Evidence Suggests Ukrainian Missile Caused Market Tragedy", as I don't have a NYT subscription). CIT's opinion[1] was that the missile could've been fired by Ukraine or Russia but, either way, hitting the market was likely accidental.
Edit: it's being reported that the missile was a 9M38 SAM (air defense) from a Buk[2]. CIT didn't list 9M38 in their big spreadsheet[3] but Buk missiles with 70kg warheads were listed as "matching" the explosion. Interesting to note that the missile that landed in Poland[4] is thought to be a S-300 air defense missile fired by Ukraine, so I guess these old Soviet systems have a problem with exploding on the ground when they miss their target (though I also heard S-300 missiles were designed to explode in the air after such a failure... or maybe a fuze malfunction could explain *both* the miss *and* exploding on the ground?)
[1] https://notes.citeam.org/dispatch-sept-8-11
[2] https://www.businessinsider.com/misfired-ukrainian-missile-struck-market-not-russia-nyt-2023-9
[3] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vS2VLnDG9Z-t92HRtXKAS4gXm1UBbzo22XwGlwibYUSjl1cvHRUkYPtP5N4_igNT2yGNQfgPzELlBU2/pubhtml?gid=0&single=true
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_missile_explosion_in_Poland
Thank you Ryan! Please mention that the explosion might have been caused by a Buk SAM in your article and summarize the NYT article. NYT put the article behind a paywall, so many of us can’t access it.
This shows your integrity as well as technical excellence!
And thank you for posting
Just a heads up, the audio is messed up to where I'm only getting the left channel. Great video!
Yep, great video and also audio only in the left channel.
Awesome follow up, sharing your methodology and reminding us to be vigilant and data driven in our analysis
It’s too bad people on both side think of providing information as a game with “points.” I’d bet a bunch of the Russian commentators could have done better if they even tried to be careful. Not unbiased mind you, just careful. The size of the explosion was a dead giveaway and immediately obvious. Yet it was completely ignored insofar as I can tell by all the Russian media.
The Russian media would have a better chance at persuading if it didn’t say things that were clearly untrue. This is not to give a pass to the many instances of bad reporting on the Ukraine side. But it does seem like there are many commentators and reporters who are trying to tell the truth from their viewpoint.
Appreciate the update! TY...
This is why I believe and believe in you Ryan. So many media outlets report a story and move on. They only revisit the release if someone else catches their error and calls them on it. Most stories to out and are forgotten. I have great respect for your commitment to integrity and maintaining oversight of your work. Well done Sir. Thank you for the work.
CS
Ryan: Thank you for sharing the CAT-UXO website description. I note that the Gadfly (BUK) has a home on non-jam capability and a Self-Destruct (SD) mechanism which is activated by its identification friend or foe (IFF) system. I assume that the operator of the Gadfly (BUK) is unable to activate the self-destruct if it flies off course. Here is a peek behind the NYTimes paywall to the article:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/world/europe/ukraine-missile-kostiantynivka-market.html?unlocked_article_code=OzOVsw0VGLh-eOhMPGExgGNCIdgrwSpkD7y5YoZOF9zcYwed-5xt00cUxuc7g2-NWtLfMFUAcuylzYZJQGYGzxQdNWixfPVx1SohTleu9kDmNucZGsKm7CKr4fqio2H6oqotAThwOy2hyiTyv7hgSilUfGSAqBaPkimTD9Jc3ta7m2iPTELnjSX5-UAjNP0Kypfsvx-AOD3qGWASj2RoRG3wNyxLfvaS0Ib0NvlIg6yjpxvLWUQob6FYawINdnOwqYZ0paiJCsZmUAAVX_ZSCMzGEhwmAtFUvwjNLNV9a0MFMwXVZAeYZKtYdH8oEoO-qZNsyfbuaRvUatih73zMDlRjZPwNhjyao-9Iz7EngXWAEMFk&smid=url-share
Good catch.