The challenge with social media censoring disinformation is that we've seen them use that power to squelch inconvenient truths (Covid origins, Hunter laptop...). The work of Matt Taibbi and Michael Shellenberger also showed the U.S. government quite capable of basically blackmailing companies to comply ("nice section 230 you have there, it would be a shame if something happened to it"). IMO the best defense against disinformation is a skeptical person who is evaluating multiple sources of info.
I would never advocate underestimating a potential rival but it doesn't sound like the Iranian strike was very successful. Did they send their best long range weaponry or did they just use some older inventory of less capable weapons to put on a show of retaliation?
If Iran had caused any significant damage, the Israelis would have been forced to react strategically and the US would have been forced to support them. In such a case, Iran would have activated Hezbollah to cause Israel critical damage.
Based on what we know from Ukraine, the Israeli air defense performed as expected and there is no significant damage, so the administration immediately told Israel to accept this as a win and informed Iran that the US would not participate in any counter attack.
Iran gained the glory of making a significant attack on Israel that hit an airfield at relatively low cost (and severely wounded 7-year old Amina al-Hassouni).
Israel had to suspend some civilian activity for a few days including closing the airport (severe economic damage), Israelis underwent another stress-inducting event, expended 1 billion dollars in air defense munitions, depleted air-defense stores and seemingly needs US assistance to defend itself in the future.
Worst, is that Iran has successfully put Israeli in a dilemma.
If Israel does not react, Iran will permanently have the initiative, able to start and stop attacks on Israel's civilian population with American support, while Hezbollah remains a powerful deterrent.
If Israel does react, it will have to do it against direct American statements without any American support which could lead to an arms embargo. It is not even clear what attacks Israel can do without American support as they have very limited aerial refueling capability.
The issue now hinges on whether Israel can attack sufficiently harshly to take the initiative away from Iran and whether the US administration will impose an arms embargo after such an attack.
Love the pickles, very thoughtful response to questions and as somebody who spent 40 days working in Iran in the early 2000's just before 9/11, your comment or reminder that most Iranians are just a bunch of regular folks is particularly valuable. There is certainly oppression there and their government sucks, but the vast majority of the folks living there just want to get on with their lives, spend time with their families and get by the best they can, just like everybody else. Our cover story was that we were Canadians, but most Iranians quickly sussed out who we actually were, and were quick to say, "Oh, I have a cousin in Chicago". or, pointing longingly at an alcove in a hotel "That's where the bar used to be..." We made many friends there and we all thought we would be coming back except 9/11 happened...
What portion of total inventory of longe range drones and missiles were expended by Iran on Isreal? I mean there’s a pro Russia guy who claims this was 1%, but my guess is closer to 10%. Any credible info on this?
The building that Israel attacked in Syria was not "a consular building", but a military command post, controlling all Iranian-affiliated military activity in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
The guys the Israelis killed were not "Iranian soldiers" but 7 Iranian officers including General Mohammed Reza Zahedi and General Mohammed Hadi Haji Rahimi as well as Hezbollah officer Hussein Youssef.
Reza Zahedi was the Iranian commander of all Iran-affiliated forces in MENA, including Assad and Hezbollah. He turned Hezbollah into the force that (arguably) defeated Israel in 2006 and is a strategic threat to Israel now. He was the commander of the Quds force in 2007-2015 (during the Syrian civil war). He is responsible for the 100 - 200 attacks on American forces in MENA since October 2023, including the attack on Tower 22 which killed Rivers, Sanders and Moffett.
Unfortunately, can’t upload a picture here, but I managed to create a decent picture with DALL-E by tricking it a bit: first, I asked for a flying rocket looking like an early von Braun design, which he did, and then asked to add an alternative history twist, an Iranian scientist from the golden age of Islam watching the rocket. Done! 😎 Can get something acceptable after few tries
Hey Ryan, I would be happy for you to run an analysis on whether I spread disinformation. I am just a normal substack user and it would be a good learning tool for me and maybe others if you wanted to do a video on it. I'm sure there would be other volunteers as well. We don't want to spread disinformation and we would like to know if we do, and be better prepared not to do so, I'm sure.
You're conflating the Iranian people with the Iranian government. You may not remember, but there were widespread protests after Ahmadinejad was re-elected that were brutally put down. There are protests by women who don't want to wear head scarves that are being put down. There are protests against the government in Southern Iran. Govts often don't represent the will all their people.
I think there's some miscommunication between us. If you watch other videos by Ryan regarding attacks on Israel by Hezbollah and Hamas, you'll see he does care about Yosef Israeli. It would take too long to offer sympathies to victims and castigations to oppressors of every group in every video he produces to assuage the hurt feelings of all his audience members. We mustn't be pedantic or we'd never accomplish anything of value in communication and the transfer of thoughts.
What Ryan was talking about was the Iranian people who hate the Mullahs, want to live in a normal country and love Netanyahu and Trump. These are the people who feel betrayed because no one (except the Israelis) supported them in the 2009 Green Revolution and in the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 protests.
Actually, Iran is run by a Supreme Council of *Ayatollahs*, not mullahs. And Iran did have a normal country before Operation Ajax (look it up) and before we destroyed their republic and reinstated an exlied Shah Reza, who ruled like Saddam and Putin.
Iran does have some of the most advance cucumber and pickle technology on earth. We must close the pickle gap!
The challenge with social media censoring disinformation is that we've seen them use that power to squelch inconvenient truths (Covid origins, Hunter laptop...). The work of Matt Taibbi and Michael Shellenberger also showed the U.S. government quite capable of basically blackmailing companies to comply ("nice section 230 you have there, it would be a shame if something happened to it"). IMO the best defense against disinformation is a skeptical person who is evaluating multiple sources of info.
I would never advocate underestimating a potential rival but it doesn't sound like the Iranian strike was very successful. Did they send their best long range weaponry or did they just use some older inventory of less capable weapons to put on a show of retaliation?
If Iran had caused any significant damage, the Israelis would have been forced to react strategically and the US would have been forced to support them. In such a case, Iran would have activated Hezbollah to cause Israel critical damage.
Based on what we know from Ukraine, the Israeli air defense performed as expected and there is no significant damage, so the administration immediately told Israel to accept this as a win and informed Iran that the US would not participate in any counter attack.
Iran gained the glory of making a significant attack on Israel that hit an airfield at relatively low cost (and severely wounded 7-year old Amina al-Hassouni).
Israel had to suspend some civilian activity for a few days including closing the airport (severe economic damage), Israelis underwent another stress-inducting event, expended 1 billion dollars in air defense munitions, depleted air-defense stores and seemingly needs US assistance to defend itself in the future.
Worst, is that Iran has successfully put Israeli in a dilemma.
If Israel does not react, Iran will permanently have the initiative, able to start and stop attacks on Israel's civilian population with American support, while Hezbollah remains a powerful deterrent.
If Israel does react, it will have to do it against direct American statements without any American support which could lead to an arms embargo. It is not even clear what attacks Israel can do without American support as they have very limited aerial refueling capability.
The issue now hinges on whether Israel can attack sufficiently harshly to take the initiative away from Iran and whether the US administration will impose an arms embargo after such an attack.
Love the pickles, very thoughtful response to questions and as somebody who spent 40 days working in Iran in the early 2000's just before 9/11, your comment or reminder that most Iranians are just a bunch of regular folks is particularly valuable. There is certainly oppression there and their government sucks, but the vast majority of the folks living there just want to get on with their lives, spend time with their families and get by the best they can, just like everybody else. Our cover story was that we were Canadians, but most Iranians quickly sussed out who we actually were, and were quick to say, "Oh, I have a cousin in Chicago". or, pointing longingly at an alcove in a hotel "That's where the bar used to be..." We made many friends there and we all thought we would be coming back except 9/11 happened...
What portion of total inventory of longe range drones and missiles were expended by Iran on Isreal? I mean there’s a pro Russia guy who claims this was 1%, but my guess is closer to 10%. Any credible info on this?
The building that Israel attacked in Syria was not "a consular building", but a military command post, controlling all Iranian-affiliated military activity in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
The guys the Israelis killed were not "Iranian soldiers" but 7 Iranian officers including General Mohammed Reza Zahedi and General Mohammed Hadi Haji Rahimi as well as Hezbollah officer Hussein Youssef.
Reza Zahedi was the Iranian commander of all Iran-affiliated forces in MENA, including Assad and Hezbollah. He turned Hezbollah into the force that (arguably) defeated Israel in 2006 and is a strategic threat to Israel now. He was the commander of the Quds force in 2007-2015 (during the Syrian civil war). He is responsible for the 100 - 200 attacks on American forces in MENA since October 2023, including the attack on Tower 22 which killed Rivers, Sanders and Moffett.
Unfortunately, can’t upload a picture here, but I managed to create a decent picture with DALL-E by tricking it a bit: first, I asked for a flying rocket looking like an early von Braun design, which he did, and then asked to add an alternative history twist, an Iranian scientist from the golden age of Islam watching the rocket. Done! 😎 Can get something acceptable after few tries
Hey Ryan, I would be happy for you to run an analysis on whether I spread disinformation. I am just a normal substack user and it would be a good learning tool for me and maybe others if you wanted to do a video on it. I'm sure there would be other volunteers as well. We don't want to spread disinformation and we would like to know if we do, and be better prepared not to do so, I'm sure.
You're conflating the Iranian people with the Iranian government. You may not remember, but there were widespread protests after Ahmadinejad was re-elected that were brutally put down. There are protests by women who don't want to wear head scarves that are being put down. There are protests against the government in Southern Iran. Govts often don't represent the will all their people.
I think there's some miscommunication between us. If you watch other videos by Ryan regarding attacks on Israel by Hezbollah and Hamas, you'll see he does care about Yosef Israeli. It would take too long to offer sympathies to victims and castigations to oppressors of every group in every video he produces to assuage the hurt feelings of all his audience members. We mustn't be pedantic or we'd never accomplish anything of value in communication and the transfer of thoughts.
What Ryan was talking about was the Iranian people who hate the Mullahs, want to live in a normal country and love Netanyahu and Trump. These are the people who feel betrayed because no one (except the Israelis) supported them in the 2009 Green Revolution and in the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 protests.
Actually, Iran is run by a Supreme Council of *Ayatollahs*, not mullahs. And Iran did have a normal country before Operation Ajax (look it up) and before we destroyed their republic and reinstated an exlied Shah Reza, who ruled like Saddam and Putin.
Agreed, although I would say the Shah was more like Assad and Mubarak / Sisi.
Some lovely fellows, too.