Thank you for these - myself and the rest of the department of the bird people appreciate knowing what the heck you guys are always so busy doing down there...
Given the oft-demonstrated failure of the Russian military to understand much less successfully adopt and execute a combined arms battle doctrine during the Ukraine War, it's highly probable that you know a lot more about modern warfare - both from a tactical and strategic perspective - than do the Russian generals.
Hopefully, the Kremlin is not subscribed to your Substack.
Hopefully, the Pentagon is subscribed to your Substack.
Skimming through my my daily dose of breakdown content, low and behold the picture of the 4 AVLM's firing 4 inert MICLIC's was my unit back in 2018. We were qualifying for a live fire event for NTC following year. It was fun being a part of that achievement converting the AVLB into the AVLM and showing that the M60 chassis can still produce results. ESSAYONS! The brush fire that it created was not as enjoyable to say the least.
Since I’m going to guess that 90% of your audience are not army ground combat veterans, it would suuuuure be nice if you could provide a key for all those cool symbols you use in your charts. For example, first, suddenly two clouds of blue dots appear in the slides in the central russian trench area, but you use blue to indicate Ukrainian troops. How did they all get in there? Second, all those nifty little coded graphic boxes with flags and such not… would it be a lot of effort to describe what they are and what they mean in English actually IN the graphic? I know you have a lot of work in preparing these, but communication is king, jargon is not. It’s a barrier to entry and understanding for your “hors de combat civilians” Cheers.
In the Iraq war there was the technique of using B-52 to drop precise ripple matching soil natural frequency to create liquifaction. I saw a test clip with sand coming out of a corrugated steel support edge like a geyser, trench filled in seconds. I think massive numbers of enemy drowned in sand. I wonder if the wet soil of Ukraine is also susceptible?
Great breakdown of a modern trench attack. I had not given it much thought. I recall that the WW1 Allies had just figured out a "walking barrage" that would land just in front of the advancing friendly troops was considered state of the art.
For the life of me, I cannot understand why they aren't considering the use of balloons to drop JDAMs. (My idea was called "retarded" but I believe the Chinese spy balloon has demonstrated to even the most recalcitrant idiot that balloons are not so easy to shoot down). More importantly, why aren't they using drones that can carry a real payload. They need to hit the lines with 100, 250, and 500 lbs bombs. Not this chicken-little grenade nonsense. This drone, for example, could really do some damage. https://www.jouav.com/blog/heavy-lift-drone.html#:~:text=GRIFF%20Aviation%20300%20%2D%20Extra%20large,31%20minutes%20of%20flight%20time.
The balloon trajectory models are getting quite capable, and if you sent it in the general direction of a target rich environment, you could program the system to launch based on which targets it happened to approach---i.e. you include multiple "plans" in its memory.
These guys, using stuff they could obtain on their own, managed almost to produce a camera guided missile that was placed into the stratosphere using readily available weather balloons. And while these are well educated guys with real NASA experience, they aren't nation state actors.
And for the people who think a balloon could be easily hit by a verba, verba missiles go up to 15,000 feet. A 30 foot balloon could carry a 500 lbs payload up to 25K which would require a SAM to hit.
Great article Ryan. Does Ukraine have an equivalent to the LCAC hovercraft? Could we see an amphibious landing anywhere, even as a secondary offensive to tie down Russian troops?
I'm honored you addressed my question! Or perhaps it was chance that I asked it and you were writing an article on it. Either way, I'm going to stick with honored, thanks Ryan!
1) didn't know you could just clear the trench with a bulldozer heavily supported
2) woah, didn't know you could spread mines via artillery on the flanks!
3) this seems relatively foolproof?! I'm not sure how a force spread as thin as Russia's could repel this. I'm going to have to rethink my position on how things will play out.
one thing also is that I don't think anyone thought drones would be such a big part of any way before Ukraine. I think back to the US Civil War, where balloons were used to try to see what was happening on the other side. Thinking of movies, the assumption was that spy satellites could real time any position on Earth. You would SEE the combatants moving about. Simpler is better. Also answer the question about why I can't purchase a small to mid size good truck in the US, and is it really tied to some law about not allowing them in the US as they are sold to extremist groups? I just want a truck that isn't so heavy it's suspension isn't up to the weight. I need to know who to blame!
Thank you. Great summary. If you take this summary add it to Thomas Theiner over on Twitter you start to get a clear picture of how this will go. Of course, Russia gets a vote. But their "poll numbers" don't suggest much turn out for that "vote".
How Ukraine will Breach Russian Lines
Thank you for these - myself and the rest of the department of the bird people appreciate knowing what the heck you guys are always so busy doing down there...
Very interesting analysis.
Given the oft-demonstrated failure of the Russian military to understand much less successfully adopt and execute a combined arms battle doctrine during the Ukraine War, it's highly probable that you know a lot more about modern warfare - both from a tactical and strategic perspective - than do the Russian generals.
Hopefully, the Kremlin is not subscribed to your Substack.
Hopefully, the Pentagon is subscribed to your Substack.
Molon labe!
Skimming through my my daily dose of breakdown content, low and behold the picture of the 4 AVLM's firing 4 inert MICLIC's was my unit back in 2018. We were qualifying for a live fire event for NTC following year. It was fun being a part of that achievement converting the AVLB into the AVLM and showing that the M60 chassis can still produce results. ESSAYONS! The brush fire that it created was not as enjoyable to say the least.
Since I’m going to guess that 90% of your audience are not army ground combat veterans, it would suuuuure be nice if you could provide a key for all those cool symbols you use in your charts. For example, first, suddenly two clouds of blue dots appear in the slides in the central russian trench area, but you use blue to indicate Ukrainian troops. How did they all get in there? Second, all those nifty little coded graphic boxes with flags and such not… would it be a lot of effort to describe what they are and what they mean in English actually IN the graphic? I know you have a lot of work in preparing these, but communication is king, jargon is not. It’s a barrier to entry and understanding for your “hors de combat civilians” Cheers.
"Service them with artillery." 👍
In the Iraq war there was the technique of using B-52 to drop precise ripple matching soil natural frequency to create liquifaction. I saw a test clip with sand coming out of a corrugated steel support edge like a geyser, trench filled in seconds. I think massive numbers of enemy drowned in sand. I wonder if the wet soil of Ukraine is also susceptible?
Great breakdown of a modern trench attack. I had not given it much thought. I recall that the WW1 Allies had just figured out a "walking barrage" that would land just in front of the advancing friendly troops was considered state of the art.
For the life of me, I cannot understand why they aren't considering the use of balloons to drop JDAMs. (My idea was called "retarded" but I believe the Chinese spy balloon has demonstrated to even the most recalcitrant idiot that balloons are not so easy to shoot down). More importantly, why aren't they using drones that can carry a real payload. They need to hit the lines with 100, 250, and 500 lbs bombs. Not this chicken-little grenade nonsense. This drone, for example, could really do some damage. https://www.jouav.com/blog/heavy-lift-drone.html#:~:text=GRIFF%20Aviation%20300%20%2D%20Extra%20large,31%20minutes%20of%20flight%20time.
The balloon trajectory models are getting quite capable, and if you sent it in the general direction of a target rich environment, you could program the system to launch based on which targets it happened to approach---i.e. you include multiple "plans" in its memory.
These guys, using stuff they could obtain on their own, managed almost to produce a camera guided missile that was placed into the stratosphere using readily available weather balloons. And while these are well educated guys with real NASA experience, they aren't nation state actors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYVZh5kqaFg&ab_channel=MarkRober
And for the people who think a balloon could be easily hit by a verba, verba missiles go up to 15,000 feet. A 30 foot balloon could carry a 500 lbs payload up to 25K which would require a SAM to hit.
Great article Ryan. Does Ukraine have an equivalent to the LCAC hovercraft? Could we see an amphibious landing anywhere, even as a secondary offensive to tie down Russian troops?
I'm honored you addressed my question! Or perhaps it was chance that I asked it and you were writing an article on it. Either way, I'm going to stick with honored, thanks Ryan!
1) didn't know you could just clear the trench with a bulldozer heavily supported
2) woah, didn't know you could spread mines via artillery on the flanks!
3) this seems relatively foolproof?! I'm not sure how a force spread as thin as Russia's could repel this. I'm going to have to rethink my position on how things will play out.
one thing also is that I don't think anyone thought drones would be such a big part of any way before Ukraine. I think back to the US Civil War, where balloons were used to try to see what was happening on the other side. Thinking of movies, the assumption was that spy satellites could real time any position on Earth. You would SEE the combatants moving about. Simpler is better. Also answer the question about why I can't purchase a small to mid size good truck in the US, and is it really tied to some law about not allowing them in the US as they are sold to extremist groups? I just want a truck that isn't so heavy it's suspension isn't up to the weight. I need to know who to blame!
I appreciate the tactical level of detail provided. It really fills in the gaps.
Thank you. Great summary. If you take this summary add it to Thomas Theiner over on Twitter you start to get a clear picture of how this will go. Of course, Russia gets a vote. But their "poll numbers" don't suggest much turn out for that "vote".
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1634644361643261953
Trench warfare is war distilled to its pure terrifying and desperate constituents. Fuck me...
Great article!
I'm curious about how they dig their trenches.
Are they using construction excavators?
Or do they have to dig them by hand?