Iran’s main concern is and should always be surviving an attack from the US/Israel. If they sacrifice their aircraft for a suicide mission, the only protection they have from attacks or invasion are their anti-aircraft missile systems and the natural terrain barriers. If the US wanted to, they could eliminate most of Iran’s attack and defense capabilities within 48 hours, like they did in Iraq. Iran’s only hope is international outrage and sympathy from allies (Russia, China, N Korea, Lebanon, Syria).
It's a mountainous desert terrain with over half a million armed personnel and a total population of 88 million who while still probably unsupportive of their regime but I'm not sure how much they'll welcome a foreign invading force even if it's about to topple their own regime.
Rrian, I have great respect for you and really appreciate what you're doing.
I want to throw a little cold water on your scenario in that Israel keeps a close eye as to what the Iranian and the Syrian Military are doing on a almost hourly basis
I've attended briefings on what Israel looks for and how they react to it. The purpose obviously is to keep one step ahead of surprise attacks. October 7th was a great nightmare. It popped the balloon of Israeli superiority. It's caused numerous officers their careers, rightfully so. It's taught a lot of young officers what not to do.
In my trip last February I have the chance to meet, see and hear a lot of interesting things about what I Israel did well and where they screwed up.
I cried at the fairgrounds and at the various kabbutseem like Kfar Aza that were destroyed, it's residents slaughtered and nineteen taken as hostages to die under the toilets of Gaza.
I came away with the feeling that Israel will not be caught off guard again. Take it for what it's worth.
I know that you've been there, done that. I have Great respect for you and what you do.
You must still have some bad jet lag. That scenario is so far fetched I have no words. Israel has this one option they use, that is overkill, they used it in the refugee camp/city self named as gaza, and hamas and it's supporters are still paying the price of that Saturday morning decision by islamists and will continue to hit that refugee camp/city until that Saturday morning on the 7th is burned into their DNA regarding what NOT to do to someone.
Lebanon does not want to end up like that refugee camp, and it will. Iran does not have the aircraft or capability to do this on any plausible scale.
They will try some suicide bomb type retaliation or some drone usage, that is their capability and only option. If they ask russia to help, and that is found out, that is some heat russia does not want.
Second point: USAF and Naval vessels in the region can respond and assist Israel within minutes. Iraqi airspace is still heavily monitored and controlled by US and Coalition forces “fighting Isis”
Hey Ryan, can't watch the video. You may have covered this, but one add if you hadn't: it is inconceivable that Iran could pull off something like this undetected by the CAOC in Qatar--also inconceivable we wouldn't notify the Israelis immediately. This is in addition to, as you stated, it requiring the complicity of at least two of the following for overflight: Iraq (possible, but we'd demarche TF out of them and punish them for it), Jordan (no way), Syria (possible but irrelevant w/o Iraq or..), Turkey (no way--although they've gladly hosted conventions for terrorists about a thousand times), or KSA (are you kidding?). That's a long list, mostly containing "GFYs."
There's also one other BIG consideration: such a mission is not possible without... in-flight refueling. My memory's sketchy, but I'm almost certain Iran cannot do this.
Without going into details, I can say from memory that (at least a decade ago) Israel attacking Iran by air was possible but logistically and operationally challenging. And they're only about 10X more capable in that domain than Iran.
2) Some realities that I think make this super unlikely and/or even harder to do:
-As you noted, refueling--that solved my dilemma of in-flight refueling, however... it's one thing for countries to allow overflight; another to allow landing and R3. That means advance parties, ground crews, resources, equipment (and of course, footprints). THAT is a big deal and it vastly ups the "complicity" factor when they then have to deal with the US and others afterward. Cuz there WOULD be repercussions.
-As you stated, rehearsals. I hadn't even thought of that, but of course. And I can say from experience yes, we absolutely would glean such things in our various reflections (if we ever meet I can tell you about some adorable Iranian rehearsal details). So, you can fully expect we, and in turn Israel, would totally know it's coming.
-OR rates. Been a decade, so my info is that dated. Hmmm. Let's just say, that surge concept you mentioned? Do it BEFORE and it MIGHT get those 50% ORs you estimated. Maybe.
-EW. A big, big part of, oh, ANY large ingress/egress of this type is EW. Given the lack of surprise Iran can realistically utilize here, I think this is absolutely an area Israel would exploit (and has, very successfully, in the past). My (granted, limited) experience was that Iran's AF EW ca. 2012 was... laughable.
An interesting scenario, albeit a terribly frightening one. But part of me would welcome such an attempt bc it would be a horror show — for the Islamic Republic! Israel would suffer some serious damage, but nothing like what the IRI would. The POTUS has already announced after his meeting with the joint chiefs in the situation room that he’d do whatever is necessary to protect and support Israel and the U.S. has already moved major naval assets to the area. I also don’t think Jordan and Saudi Arabia would sit idly by. They are no fans of the IRI. Quite the opposite. This would be just the excuse they’d need to pile on and take their shots against them. Esp on the returning attack planes as Israel goes after the missiles. Guess we’ll find out soon. Let’s hope it’s just the same impotent theatrical show of force they put on in April.
it says the video is private
Iran’s main concern is and should always be surviving an attack from the US/Israel. If they sacrifice their aircraft for a suicide mission, the only protection they have from attacks or invasion are their anti-aircraft missile systems and the natural terrain barriers. If the US wanted to, they could eliminate most of Iran’s attack and defense capabilities within 48 hours, like they did in Iraq. Iran’s only hope is international outrage and sympathy from allies (Russia, China, N Korea, Lebanon, Syria).
I don't think Iran is invadeable.
It's a mountainous desert terrain with over half a million armed personnel and a total population of 88 million who while still probably unsupportive of their regime but I'm not sure how much they'll welcome a foreign invading force even if it's about to topple their own regime.
Yeah certainly not invading. I am more referring to deleting cities and reducing the population (IE Gaza)
Also unlikely (and undesirable), IMHO.
This is a vast area and literally the regime and armed forces are less than 1% of the population who, from what I understand, mostly suffer under it.
Video is private mr McBeth
Rrian, I have great respect for you and really appreciate what you're doing.
I want to throw a little cold water on your scenario in that Israel keeps a close eye as to what the Iranian and the Syrian Military are doing on a almost hourly basis
I've attended briefings on what Israel looks for and how they react to it. The purpose obviously is to keep one step ahead of surprise attacks. October 7th was a great nightmare. It popped the balloon of Israeli superiority. It's caused numerous officers their careers, rightfully so. It's taught a lot of young officers what not to do.
In my trip last February I have the chance to meet, see and hear a lot of interesting things about what I Israel did well and where they screwed up.
I cried at the fairgrounds and at the various kabbutseem like Kfar Aza that were destroyed, it's residents slaughtered and nineteen taken as hostages to die under the toilets of Gaza.
I came away with the feeling that Israel will not be caught off guard again. Take it for what it's worth.
I know that you've been there, done that. I have Great respect for you and what you do.
Respectfully,
Phil
You must still have some bad jet lag. That scenario is so far fetched I have no words. Israel has this one option they use, that is overkill, they used it in the refugee camp/city self named as gaza, and hamas and it's supporters are still paying the price of that Saturday morning decision by islamists and will continue to hit that refugee camp/city until that Saturday morning on the 7th is burned into their DNA regarding what NOT to do to someone.
Lebanon does not want to end up like that refugee camp, and it will. Iran does not have the aircraft or capability to do this on any plausible scale.
They will try some suicide bomb type retaliation or some drone usage, that is their capability and only option. If they ask russia to help, and that is found out, that is some heat russia does not want.
Second point: USAF and Naval vessels in the region can respond and assist Israel within minutes. Iraqi airspace is still heavily monitored and controlled by US and Coalition forces “fighting Isis”
Super de-monetized
Probably struck by Youtube
The video is private. I assume it’s meant to be unlisted.
Jordan already said they'd shoot down anything in their airspace
According to Israeli media, the Shahad-100 is the most successful munition used by Iran against Israel - in Eilat and in the north.
The -101 model now has an electric motor which is even harder to detect.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/hezbollah-debuts-shahed-101-drone-against--israel
Hey Ryan, can't watch the video. You may have covered this, but one add if you hadn't: it is inconceivable that Iran could pull off something like this undetected by the CAOC in Qatar--also inconceivable we wouldn't notify the Israelis immediately. This is in addition to, as you stated, it requiring the complicity of at least two of the following for overflight: Iraq (possible, but we'd demarche TF out of them and punish them for it), Jordan (no way), Syria (possible but irrelevant w/o Iraq or..), Turkey (no way--although they've gladly hosted conventions for terrorists about a thousand times), or KSA (are you kidding?). That's a long list, mostly containing "GFYs."
There's also one other BIG consideration: such a mission is not possible without... in-flight refueling. My memory's sketchy, but I'm almost certain Iran cannot do this.
Without going into details, I can say from memory that (at least a decade ago) Israel attacking Iran by air was possible but logistically and operationally challenging. And they're only about 10X more capable in that domain than Iran.
Okay, now I saw the video. A couple thoughts:
1) Well thought out scenario. At least plausible.
2) Some realities that I think make this super unlikely and/or even harder to do:
-As you noted, refueling--that solved my dilemma of in-flight refueling, however... it's one thing for countries to allow overflight; another to allow landing and R3. That means advance parties, ground crews, resources, equipment (and of course, footprints). THAT is a big deal and it vastly ups the "complicity" factor when they then have to deal with the US and others afterward. Cuz there WOULD be repercussions.
-As you stated, rehearsals. I hadn't even thought of that, but of course. And I can say from experience yes, we absolutely would glean such things in our various reflections (if we ever meet I can tell you about some adorable Iranian rehearsal details). So, you can fully expect we, and in turn Israel, would totally know it's coming.
-OR rates. Been a decade, so my info is that dated. Hmmm. Let's just say, that surge concept you mentioned? Do it BEFORE and it MIGHT get those 50% ORs you estimated. Maybe.
-EW. A big, big part of, oh, ANY large ingress/egress of this type is EW. Given the lack of surprise Iran can realistically utilize here, I think this is absolutely an area Israel would exploit (and has, very successfully, in the past). My (granted, limited) experience was that Iran's AF EW ca. 2012 was... laughable.
An interesting scenario, albeit a terribly frightening one. But part of me would welcome such an attempt bc it would be a horror show — for the Islamic Republic! Israel would suffer some serious damage, but nothing like what the IRI would. The POTUS has already announced after his meeting with the joint chiefs in the situation room that he’d do whatever is necessary to protect and support Israel and the U.S. has already moved major naval assets to the area. I also don’t think Jordan and Saudi Arabia would sit idly by. They are no fans of the IRI. Quite the opposite. This would be just the excuse they’d need to pile on and take their shots against them. Esp on the returning attack planes as Israel goes after the missiles. Guess we’ll find out soon. Let’s hope it’s just the same impotent theatrical show of force they put on in April.
Hey Ryan, with friends like you ...
TY for fixing that Ryan!
I'm subscribed and I cannot view this video, why is that?