How should this, and the apparently intentional strike on a consulate building, adjust our assessment of the IDFs kill-chain oversight and civilian casualty risk tolerance parameters?
Does this shift previous assements such as the "unarmed men" breakdown from last week?
I can't do YT well on my phone and had to come back to your Patreon post to comment... At home it's not an issue...
Anyway I think Israel started this with revenge in mind... Never a good motivation for any military operation... It leads to mistakes that were hopefully unintentional... But they've been at this long enough now to realize it isn't working the way it was intended... The only thing they should focus on is the hostages...
UPDATED BASED ON Haaretz reporting. Unpopular and possible unwelcome opinion. I am not a smart person, never served, but I know people. As in I know how human beings act and when they are not being rational. Israel is not acting rationally right now. Which is what makes trying to rationalize what is going on incorrect. YES they were hit first. YES seeking some degree of revenge while illegal is a human response. What is going on now is beyond even that level of rationality. What will it take for you to see that? IS there anything Israel could do short of using nuclear weapons that would lead you to see that while the victims at first they are now the perpetrators?
ONE MORE THING: No, I didn't Just subscribe or something to say this. No one has said this yet but I'd wager $5 someone would've. I've supported Ryans work either by sharing and liking or by substack for quite some time. I will continue to. I just think he's way off on this issue. US Americans have certain historical biases baked into the cake. I am no different. It's hard to see past them without trying.
Whoever did this needs to be court martialed. From the sound of it that aid convoy was in constant contact with the war room that controlled the drone. While this was happening they told them they were under attack. IDF still attacked THREE TIMES. TREE TIMES is not an accident! It is not! This could not be any more brazen, and intentional. IF this is even 1/2 true this needs to lead to someone being sacked, someone being court martialed, someone going down HARD for a mistake like this.
Maybe if more than 1% of Americans had ever served in the military, issues like the 'fog of war,' 'deconfliction,' and the reality of what actually happens during a war, especially during night ops, wouldn't be such foreign concepts to the majority of the American public, and media.
Listening to and reading news sources this morning here in Israel that based on the the initial investigation and leaks but pending the release of the complete official investigation, it appears that what happened is as follows:
Firstly it appears (surprise) that the Israeli management of foreign aid workers has been haphazard. It appears that there has not been a good channel of communication between COGAT and the guys doing the fighting. This is IMO probably a result of the Israeli attempt to support aid while pretending not to (or the opposite) and not just "yihye beseder" culture. New Hebrew phrase for you "lalekhet bli ulehargish im" = "to be without and feel with". The first step that was taken immediately after the initial investigation was to set up a central control room to improve coordination.
It also appears that the command was given on the level of the brigade which is apparently correct procedure.
I think that the regret being expressed in Israel is genuine. I have not seen any signs to the contrary in official or unofficial media that I read. There is absolutely no doubt that this was a tragic accident. There are extreme extra-political players (Kaplanist anti-Bibi) who are trying to make out that the accident was planned in order to "force" Israel to take full permanent military control of the Strip as all the civilian an foreign aid workers will leave. However I think that this weighs in a very unlikely. The collateral international damage to Israel is enormous and contrary to opinions I saw in the comments here, Israel is not irrational.
Very good post, Ryan, thank you. I have for some time believed that the high civilian casualty rate, the very high casualty rate of Journalists, the insistence of limiting food deliveries and other aid to Gaza, and the destruction of so much infrastructure (hospitals, schools, universities) and now this most recent event, all demonstrate what, to be kind, might be called a deliberate absence of care, or to be less kind, a racist disregard for Arab life.
Almost all Israeli’s grow up in Israel and they are subject throughout their lives to a false history regarding the 1948 war and propagandistic rhetoric about Palestinians. There is a reason that the population in general sees no problem at all with the military occupation of the West Bank or the second class citizen status of Israeli Arab citizens, or the expansion of settlements. They are generally comfortable with these things.
When you add to that the suicide bombings of the second Intifada, the fairly high representation of right-wing nationalists in the population, the cultural absorption of the Holocaust and of course the October 7th atrocities, you have a population (and a military made up of citizen soldiers) who are essentially racist (in American terms) towards Arabs in the first place, and filled with a sense of righteous revenge as a result of the traumas or October 7th in the second.
It is fairly well known that Israeli media does not show the footage of devastation and dead children in Gaza that we commonly see in the west. This is not because of censorship or government policy, but because the media executives consider in unpatriotic. They show feel good stories about the IDF, the hometown girls and boys on the front.
As for the IDF’s ability to actually investigate this kind of thing, the tragic shooting of the female journalist Abu Akleh on the West Bank never resulted in any IDF soldier being disciplined or even identified, or the death of 23 year old American activist Rachel Corrie, crushed by an IDF bulldozer in Gaza was never explained or a soldier disciplined for that. All the “investigation” determined was that the driver “never saw her” despite the fact that she was wearing day-glow clothing and yelling through a megaphone.
What all of this adds up to, in my mind, is a fairly substantial reduction in care at the professional military level, evidently at all levels. There is just too much of this going on too often for it to be well intentioned human error.
The thing is... Bibi doesn't want humanitarian aid in Gaza, right?
> high-ranking Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Energy Minister Israel Katz have made public statements expressing their aim to deprive civilians in Gaza of food, water and fuel – statements reflecting a policy being carried out by Israeli forces.[1]
These two are from Bibi's party, Likud:
> Yoav Gallant said: “We are imposing a complete siege on [Gaza]. No electricity, no food, no water, no fuel – everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we must act accordingly.”
> Israel Katz, who reported that he ordered the cuts to electricity and water, said on October 11: “For years, we have given Gaza electricity, water, and fuel. Instead of a thank you, they sent thousands of human animals to butcher, murder, rape and kidnap babies, women and elderly people. This is why we have decided to cut off the supply of water, electricity and fuel, and now, the local power plant has collapsed, and there is no electricity in Gaza. We will keep holding a tight siege until the Hamas threat is lifted from Israel and the world. What has been will be no more.”
The third is far right, but still a government minister:
> Ben-Gvir said in a tweet on October 17, “So long as Hamas does not release the hostages – the only thing that should enter Gaza is hundreds of tons of air force explosives – not an ounce of humanitarian aid.”
So, like Percy in The Green Mile "forgetting" to soak the sponge in water, one is led to the hypothesis that perhaps a politically-motivated IDF member "forgot" to deconflict the aid convey to scare off future aid work.
Did you not watch the video? FYI, night is dark, and markings on vehicles are not visible in the dark. And mis- and breakdown in communications are not uncommon, Also, if you are targeting what you think, even mistakenly, is an enemy 'convoy,' with limited aerial resources, you pick them off one by one (preferably the tail first, then the lead, & then the middle ones). Will be interesting to find out what the details of the communications between the convoy & the drone unit really were. And by the way, even if the vehicle markings had been visible, that's not dispositive since terrorists organizations, like Hamas, frequently masquerade themselves as humanitarian operations.
I don't think it is fair to call the IDF conduct stupid. Wars and militaries are extremely complex and there are literally millions of things happening at any one moment. Anyone who has served knows that coordination is never perfect and can never be perfect.
Let's compare the WCK strike with Kunduz 2015
WCK: pitch dark, convoy travelling in active war zone, Hamas documented use of civilian transport for military reasons, three missiles launched over a period of about a minute by an NCO drone operator.
Kunduz 2015: partial moonlight, fixed hospital at known location, 211 shells fired over a period of 1 hour under command of a USAF officer (I believe Major or Lt. Col).
The US failure was orders of magnitudes worse than the IDF. Since the US had no interest in attacking a random hospital, we can see that even the world's best soldiers under command of smart people under no pressure make mistakes.
What probably happened in WCK was that the deconfliction message did not reach the drone unit. Considering that there were likely hundreds, maybe thousands, messages that night and that there were multiple soldiers involved (some trainees, some or all exhausted), one failed message delivery is reasonable.
The idea of an IR strobe is great but Hamas will steal them. Best would be that each vehicle have an Israeli with radio beacon to ascertain that no Hamas guys are in the vehicle and a US marine whose presence will prevent the Israeli from being kidnapped or murdered.
This event is tragic and like Ryan says Israel needs to do better. I await more info. before I judge. The real shame is that World Central Kitchen has been making a difference and as the news reports on the building of the jetty Israel was assisting. Thanks Ryan for your assessment.
This morning, April 5, 2024, the New York Times printed a story headlined "String of Israeli Errors Led to Fatal Attack on Aid Convoy, Military” (Saysthttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/05/world/middleeast/israel-military-world-central-kitchen-strike.html). According to the Times, your analysis of what may have happened is right on. Great job Ryan, keep up the good work.
Read Lord Acton's letter to Bishop Mandell Creighton, the famous "Power corrupts" letter.
Then read, "Determined: A Science of Life without Free Will" by Robert M. Sapolsky, Ph.D. and pay attention to the neurophysiology and genetics of decision making.
Since there wasn't any consequences for the decision makers of our drone attack on August 29, 2021 drone strike in Kabul that killed 10 Afghan civilians, including seven children. I don't see where we can demand Israel to do much for their "mistake."
Since, I have read (not fact checked yet) that there were actually three vehicles of employees of this group. All three were attacked and the other two vehicles were armored. Persons in the armored vehicles survived. All were clearly marked. I have not had a chance to confirm this from any other sources yet. So much misinformation out there. Can anyone confirm or refute these facts?
How should this, and the apparently intentional strike on a consulate building, adjust our assessment of the IDFs kill-chain oversight and civilian casualty risk tolerance parameters?
Does this shift previous assements such as the "unarmed men" breakdown from last week?
I can't do YT well on my phone and had to come back to your Patreon post to comment... At home it's not an issue...
Anyway I think Israel started this with revenge in mind... Never a good motivation for any military operation... It leads to mistakes that were hopefully unintentional... But they've been at this long enough now to realize it isn't working the way it was intended... The only thing they should focus on is the hostages...
UPDATED BASED ON Haaretz reporting. Unpopular and possible unwelcome opinion. I am not a smart person, never served, but I know people. As in I know how human beings act and when they are not being rational. Israel is not acting rationally right now. Which is what makes trying to rationalize what is going on incorrect. YES they were hit first. YES seeking some degree of revenge while illegal is a human response. What is going on now is beyond even that level of rationality. What will it take for you to see that? IS there anything Israel could do short of using nuclear weapons that would lead you to see that while the victims at first they are now the perpetrators?
ONE MORE THING: No, I didn't Just subscribe or something to say this. No one has said this yet but I'd wager $5 someone would've. I've supported Ryans work either by sharing and liking or by substack for quite some time. I will continue to. I just think he's way off on this issue. US Americans have certain historical biases baked into the cake. I am no different. It's hard to see past them without trying.
UPDATE. https://www.msn.com/he-il/news/other/idf-drone-bombed-world-central-kitchen-aid-convoy-three-times-targeting-armed-hamas-member-who-wasn-t-there/ar-BB1kW95F
Whoever did this needs to be court martialed. From the sound of it that aid convoy was in constant contact with the war room that controlled the drone. While this was happening they told them they were under attack. IDF still attacked THREE TIMES. TREE TIMES is not an accident! It is not! This could not be any more brazen, and intentional. IF this is even 1/2 true this needs to lead to someone being sacked, someone being court martialed, someone going down HARD for a mistake like this.
Maybe if more than 1% of Americans had ever served in the military, issues like the 'fog of war,' 'deconfliction,' and the reality of what actually happens during a war, especially during night ops, wouldn't be such foreign concepts to the majority of the American public, and media.
Listening to and reading news sources this morning here in Israel that based on the the initial investigation and leaks but pending the release of the complete official investigation, it appears that what happened is as follows:
Firstly it appears (surprise) that the Israeli management of foreign aid workers has been haphazard. It appears that there has not been a good channel of communication between COGAT and the guys doing the fighting. This is IMO probably a result of the Israeli attempt to support aid while pretending not to (or the opposite) and not just "yihye beseder" culture. New Hebrew phrase for you "lalekhet bli ulehargish im" = "to be without and feel with". The first step that was taken immediately after the initial investigation was to set up a central control room to improve coordination.
It also appears that the command was given on the level of the brigade which is apparently correct procedure.
I think that the regret being expressed in Israel is genuine. I have not seen any signs to the contrary in official or unofficial media that I read. There is absolutely no doubt that this was a tragic accident. There are extreme extra-political players (Kaplanist anti-Bibi) who are trying to make out that the accident was planned in order to "force" Israel to take full permanent military control of the Strip as all the civilian an foreign aid workers will leave. However I think that this weighs in a very unlikely. The collateral international damage to Israel is enormous and contrary to opinions I saw in the comments here, Israel is not irrational.
Very good post, Ryan, thank you. I have for some time believed that the high civilian casualty rate, the very high casualty rate of Journalists, the insistence of limiting food deliveries and other aid to Gaza, and the destruction of so much infrastructure (hospitals, schools, universities) and now this most recent event, all demonstrate what, to be kind, might be called a deliberate absence of care, or to be less kind, a racist disregard for Arab life.
Almost all Israeli’s grow up in Israel and they are subject throughout their lives to a false history regarding the 1948 war and propagandistic rhetoric about Palestinians. There is a reason that the population in general sees no problem at all with the military occupation of the West Bank or the second class citizen status of Israeli Arab citizens, or the expansion of settlements. They are generally comfortable with these things.
When you add to that the suicide bombings of the second Intifada, the fairly high representation of right-wing nationalists in the population, the cultural absorption of the Holocaust and of course the October 7th atrocities, you have a population (and a military made up of citizen soldiers) who are essentially racist (in American terms) towards Arabs in the first place, and filled with a sense of righteous revenge as a result of the traumas or October 7th in the second.
It is fairly well known that Israeli media does not show the footage of devastation and dead children in Gaza that we commonly see in the west. This is not because of censorship or government policy, but because the media executives consider in unpatriotic. They show feel good stories about the IDF, the hometown girls and boys on the front.
As for the IDF’s ability to actually investigate this kind of thing, the tragic shooting of the female journalist Abu Akleh on the West Bank never resulted in any IDF soldier being disciplined or even identified, or the death of 23 year old American activist Rachel Corrie, crushed by an IDF bulldozer in Gaza was never explained or a soldier disciplined for that. All the “investigation” determined was that the driver “never saw her” despite the fact that she was wearing day-glow clothing and yelling through a megaphone.
What all of this adds up to, in my mind, is a fairly substantial reduction in care at the professional military level, evidently at all levels. There is just too much of this going on too often for it to be well intentioned human error.
In my mind, that was an intentional mistake. "Oop, so sorry." They want to disrupt all aid to Gaza.
The thing is... Bibi doesn't want humanitarian aid in Gaza, right?
> high-ranking Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and Energy Minister Israel Katz have made public statements expressing their aim to deprive civilians in Gaza of food, water and fuel – statements reflecting a policy being carried out by Israeli forces.[1]
These two are from Bibi's party, Likud:
> Yoav Gallant said: “We are imposing a complete siege on [Gaza]. No electricity, no food, no water, no fuel – everything is closed. We are fighting human animals and we must act accordingly.”
> Israel Katz, who reported that he ordered the cuts to electricity and water, said on October 11: “For years, we have given Gaza electricity, water, and fuel. Instead of a thank you, they sent thousands of human animals to butcher, murder, rape and kidnap babies, women and elderly people. This is why we have decided to cut off the supply of water, electricity and fuel, and now, the local power plant has collapsed, and there is no electricity in Gaza. We will keep holding a tight siege until the Hamas threat is lifted from Israel and the world. What has been will be no more.”
The third is far right, but still a government minister:
> Ben-Gvir said in a tweet on October 17, “So long as Hamas does not release the hostages – the only thing that should enter Gaza is hundreds of tons of air force explosives – not an ounce of humanitarian aid.”
So, like Percy in The Green Mile "forgetting" to soak the sponge in water, one is led to the hypothesis that perhaps a politically-motivated IDF member "forgot" to deconflict the aid convey to scare off future aid work.
[1] https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/12/18/israel-starvation-used-weapon-war-gaza
Did you not watch the video? FYI, night is dark, and markings on vehicles are not visible in the dark. And mis- and breakdown in communications are not uncommon, Also, if you are targeting what you think, even mistakenly, is an enemy 'convoy,' with limited aerial resources, you pick them off one by one (preferably the tail first, then the lead, & then the middle ones). Will be interesting to find out what the details of the communications between the convoy & the drone unit really were. And by the way, even if the vehicle markings had been visible, that's not dispositive since terrorists organizations, like Hamas, frequently masquerade themselves as humanitarian operations.
I don't think it is fair to call the IDF conduct stupid. Wars and militaries are extremely complex and there are literally millions of things happening at any one moment. Anyone who has served knows that coordination is never perfect and can never be perfect.
Let's compare the WCK strike with Kunduz 2015
WCK: pitch dark, convoy travelling in active war zone, Hamas documented use of civilian transport for military reasons, three missiles launched over a period of about a minute by an NCO drone operator.
Kunduz 2015: partial moonlight, fixed hospital at known location, 211 shells fired over a period of 1 hour under command of a USAF officer (I believe Major or Lt. Col).
The US failure was orders of magnitudes worse than the IDF. Since the US had no interest in attacking a random hospital, we can see that even the world's best soldiers under command of smart people under no pressure make mistakes.
What probably happened in WCK was that the deconfliction message did not reach the drone unit. Considering that there were likely hundreds, maybe thousands, messages that night and that there were multiple soldiers involved (some trainees, some or all exhausted), one failed message delivery is reasonable.
The idea of an IR strobe is great but Hamas will steal them. Best would be that each vehicle have an Israeli with radio beacon to ascertain that no Hamas guys are in the vehicle and a US marine whose presence will prevent the Israeli from being kidnapped or murdered.
If you need help on your Hebrew let me know, cause your accent is killing me
This event is tragic and like Ryan says Israel needs to do better. I await more info. before I judge. The real shame is that World Central Kitchen has been making a difference and as the news reports on the building of the jetty Israel was assisting. Thanks Ryan for your assessment.
Ryan question: is it conceivable that Hamas if it wanted to use then WCK vans it could force the personnel at gun point to divulge the strobe pattern?
This morning, April 5, 2024, the New York Times printed a story headlined "String of Israeli Errors Led to Fatal Attack on Aid Convoy, Military” (Saysthttps://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/05/world/middleeast/israel-military-world-central-kitchen-strike.html). According to the Times, your analysis of what may have happened is right on. Great job Ryan, keep up the good work.
Who gave the approval?
Will there be consequences for that person?
Read Lord Acton's letter to Bishop Mandell Creighton, the famous "Power corrupts" letter.
Then read, "Determined: A Science of Life without Free Will" by Robert M. Sapolsky, Ph.D. and pay attention to the neurophysiology and genetics of decision making.
Since there wasn't any consequences for the decision makers of our drone attack on August 29, 2021 drone strike in Kabul that killed 10 Afghan civilians, including seven children. I don't see where we can demand Israel to do much for their "mistake."
I am glad I don't have to make those decisions.
Since, I have read (not fact checked yet) that there were actually three vehicles of employees of this group. All three were attacked and the other two vehicles were armored. Persons in the armored vehicles survived. All were clearly marked. I have not had a chance to confirm this from any other sources yet. So much misinformation out there. Can anyone confirm or refute these facts?