Not sure that they are just going out alone - just watched a convoy of 4 Tanks with 3 BMPs taken out in a stupid, wasteful way on Telegram. Haven’t noticed any reduction in frequency.
Personally I’m happy to see as many Russian Tanks wasted as possible.
Using the Javelin missile tube as a tripod - does that necessarily harm the tube? It is probably lighter than the tripod, you have two Javelins to shoot rather than one Javelin and one tripod. Maybe he just couldn't find a Ferrari?
Artillery too. If there is a mass of tanks in one location, HIMARS, and especially HIMARS with cluster munitions, would eat that group alive. So, I agree that having them operate alone is plausible here - but it's Russia. While they do occasionally have moments of military brilliance (Surovikin line) most of the time they're poorly led, i.e. firing Surovikin, so who really knows?
It will be interesting to see how anti-drone defences will evolve over the next few years. There must be many companies and people working on that right now.
Ryan your analysis is insightful, and likely correct since apparently other instances of lone tanks have been observed. But, using your often cited Occam's razor with the smallest possible set of variables, maybe there's another explanation for singleton tanks roaming the Ukraine countryside: The Russians are running out of readily available functioning tanks. Just saying.
Regardless of the reason--shift in doctrine, loss of resource, supply-failures, FPV drone response-- the "alone strategy" represents significant reduction in the effectiveness of Russia's tried and true method of dealing with resistance: "send in the tanks." So, some Ukranian strategist is noticing and marking up a success.
Interesting and essential to figure out 'why', though.
potential gain in lower targeting risk better be substantially more tactically/strategically valuable than the loss of firepower and standard safety (no other tanks covering your precious ass), or the whole change might either not actually make any difference, or be a net negative anyway.
I think it goes back to something I've mentioned in a different Post... The Russian officer's don't really care that much about their people... They are cannon fodder to the high ups... So they send them out solo for whatever reason...
Add to that the fact that I'm sure they're running short of experienced crews as well... These Bozo's get lost and wander around till they find their own people or someone starts shooting at them... Between the weather and terrain ther aren't a lot of visible spots to gauge where you are once you get disoriented...
Organizing a tank transporter is complex, tank transporters are high-priority targets and are easily destroyed with small arms.
Russian tanks driving on roads are fast (80 kph) and long range (at least 300 km).
So if the Russians needed to simply relocate a tank, they could send it out alone on a road (so it can drive fast and won't get lost). Going 80kph it is invulnerable to FPV drones.
The Russians just need to hope that they are further than 4 km from a Javelin which, statistically speaking, isn't such a bad bet.
I've been noticing the 'aloneness' alot on both sides of the fight. I'm kinda shocked that neither side seems to operating in bounding pairs. The video I saw about a month or so ago with the Russian tank getting attacked by two Bradleys really brought this to my attention. I was like "Where is his battle-buddy? Where is the rest of the tank platoon?"
Also, when I see the vids of either side moving to contact, they don't seem to be using covering fire from mortars or artillery to supress the objective and they never use smoke. They just drive around by themselves like it's a joyride until they get smoked by an AGM.
I suspect there might be two things going on:
1)the Soviet/Russian doctrine of 3-tank platoons makes it hard to have bounding pairs when you only start out with three tanks.
2) With the war devolved to static trench warefare, they might have broken up the tank formations and farmed them out as supporting fires to infantry like the new 'not a tank' M10 Booker (The 'infantry tank' is a very old concept) .
Could this be caused by local shortages in available armor? Like the local command states that there is a must do job, but there simply isn't enough armor in reserve to spare more that 1, or a single unit needs to be pulled away from other duties to attempt to preform whatever task needs doing?
Not sure that they are just going out alone - just watched a convoy of 4 Tanks with 3 BMPs taken out in a stupid, wasteful way on Telegram. Haven’t noticed any reduction in frequency.
Personally I’m happy to see as many Russian Tanks wasted as possible.
Using the Javelin missile tube as a tripod - does that necessarily harm the tube? It is probably lighter than the tripod, you have two Javelins to shoot rather than one Javelin and one tripod. Maybe he just couldn't find a Ferrari?
What are these solo tanks sent to do? Reconnaissance, harrassment, crew punishment?
Artillery too. If there is a mass of tanks in one location, HIMARS, and especially HIMARS with cluster munitions, would eat that group alive. So, I agree that having them operate alone is plausible here - but it's Russia. While they do occasionally have moments of military brilliance (Surovikin line) most of the time they're poorly led, i.e. firing Surovikin, so who really knows?
It will be interesting to see how anti-drone defences will evolve over the next few years. There must be many companies and people working on that right now.
Ryan your analysis is insightful, and likely correct since apparently other instances of lone tanks have been observed. But, using your often cited Occam's razor with the smallest possible set of variables, maybe there's another explanation for singleton tanks roaming the Ukraine countryside: The Russians are running out of readily available functioning tanks. Just saying.
Regardless of the reason--shift in doctrine, loss of resource, supply-failures, FPV drone response-- the "alone strategy" represents significant reduction in the effectiveness of Russia's tried and true method of dealing with resistance: "send in the tanks." So, some Ukranian strategist is noticing and marking up a success.
Interesting and essential to figure out 'why', though.
Slava Ukraini.
potential gain in lower targeting risk better be substantially more tactically/strategically valuable than the loss of firepower and standard safety (no other tanks covering your precious ass), or the whole change might either not actually make any difference, or be a net negative anyway.
Sort of the opposite of WW2 convoys designed to avoid U Boats.
War is chaotic and the Russians are disorganized, badly depleted and suffering from chronically low morale.
I wouldn't be surprised if these lone vehicle crews are panicked, lost or both.
I think it goes back to something I've mentioned in a different Post... The Russian officer's don't really care that much about their people... They are cannon fodder to the high ups... So they send them out solo for whatever reason...
Add to that the fact that I'm sure they're running short of experienced crews as well... These Bozo's get lost and wander around till they find their own people or someone starts shooting at them... Between the weather and terrain ther aren't a lot of visible spots to gauge where you are once you get disoriented...
Maybe they are the only tank left over after others destroyed?????
If it is, once again lives are worth less than machines......Not unusual in any war but also no great for morale.
Organizing a tank transporter is complex, tank transporters are high-priority targets and are easily destroyed with small arms.
Russian tanks driving on roads are fast (80 kph) and long range (at least 300 km).
So if the Russians needed to simply relocate a tank, they could send it out alone on a road (so it can drive fast and won't get lost). Going 80kph it is invulnerable to FPV drones.
The Russians just need to hope that they are further than 4 km from a Javelin which, statistically speaking, isn't such a bad bet.
I've been noticing the 'aloneness' alot on both sides of the fight. I'm kinda shocked that neither side seems to operating in bounding pairs. The video I saw about a month or so ago with the Russian tank getting attacked by two Bradleys really brought this to my attention. I was like "Where is his battle-buddy? Where is the rest of the tank platoon?"
Also, when I see the vids of either side moving to contact, they don't seem to be using covering fire from mortars or artillery to supress the objective and they never use smoke. They just drive around by themselves like it's a joyride until they get smoked by an AGM.
I suspect there might be two things going on:
1)the Soviet/Russian doctrine of 3-tank platoons makes it hard to have bounding pairs when you only start out with three tanks.
2) With the war devolved to static trench warefare, they might have broken up the tank formations and farmed them out as supporting fires to infantry like the new 'not a tank' M10 Booker (The 'infantry tank' is a very old concept) .
Could this be caused by local shortages in available armor? Like the local command states that there is a must do job, but there simply isn't enough armor in reserve to spare more that 1, or a single unit needs to be pulled away from other duties to attempt to preform whatever task needs doing?