Great perspectives. The problem I see is Israel will be expected to follow the rules of warfare, whereas Hamas will not. Terrorists only like rules when they can exploit those rules to their advantage. Ceasefires will be called for, but like Tet in 1968, only one side will abide by them.
The press has already found Israel at fault immediately after taking Hamas account of the rocket hitting al-Ahli Hospital's parking lot without questioning the veracity of the allegations. The press makes money on negative stories and what's more negative than a middle east war with Israel being made to be the bad guys?
The US gets very sterilized versions of violence via social media and the conventional media. Dead bodies become magically pixilated without the other senses being assaulted with the horrible smells, sounds and tastes of death. Gone are the horror that war and indiscriminate violence bring.
Will we be able to trust the casualty counts provided by either side???
There is precedent to show both sides manipulate data to advantage; have done for decades. As for the sterilized coverage, we get warnings that some scenes might be distressing when they pull a cat out of a drain! How soft are we? Why? Is this to protect our sensibilities or to program and control us? Oh, a bomb went off... having been there, done that like I imagine you have we both know it is nothing like what is shown and yes, that's even without the unforgettable odours. Why not show everything, at least after kiddies bedtime? Because they want us to think 'that's horrible' but not really horrible because if it happens here how can our authorities protect us? It is all about making us compliant and trusting.
I'll take your word for it; personally I have little interest in viewing the carnage. The Palestinians will post more simply because of the asymetric nature of the conflict. They don't have billions in military aid, Apache helicopters or JDAM bombs. They have to use everything they have to wage their war. If only they could shrug off the very semitic attitude to killing anything and everything (and keep in mind both sides are semitic people) they might garner more empathy. At the moment it is all for Israel, basically giving them carte blanche to do as they please in Gaza.
Urban battle, I think casualties will be a lot higher for every single participant. The Hamas fighters that are going to stay will fight to death. When humanitarian aid will follow back so will weapons. So causality rate will be a lot higher for all parties. The world won’t stomach it and the operation will end in stand still because of political pressure.
Honestly why lose any Israeli lives? Give them 48 hours to let the women and children flee and then go full Dresden or Tokyo on Gaza. Send the civilians to Qatar.
Qatar won't have them and hasn't taken a single Arab refugee; not from Syria, Iraq or Palestine. Palestinians currently in Qatar are there on work visas. The UAE hasn't taken a single refugee either, or Saudi Arabia. Why? Because they know it will cause a lot of internal strife as we see in Europe. Yet nothing is said by the soft headed lefties in Europe about this; because they know it won't change anything. So they hit their own governments and so Europeans have to pay and put up with a lot of crap while the rich ones that benefit from the chaos in the Middle East get richer and never have to be anywhere near a refugee. And why should civilians who probably never actually voted for HAMAS have to leave? How about the hard core HAMAS ring that causes the trouble have a fight to the death with Bibi and his boys? Make good pay TV and just as likely to happen as an orderly evacuation of civilians.
I expect that the human costs to the IDF and the civilization population will be significant. That's my polite version. To be blunt; this is going to be a bloodbath. Israel is already viewed by its neighbors and the rest of the world as the bad guys in this conflict. We're it up to me; I would bulldozer Gaza into the Mediterranean Sea, and sow the land with salt so that nothing could grow there.
The IDF may suffer more casualties. In the 2006 Summer War against Hezbollah the IDF casualty rate was disproportionately high. I can't recall precise numbers but the new tactics and Iranian supplied AT weapons meant the Merkava tanks were getting knocked off at an alarming rate. The casualty rate was the equivalent of the US Army losing 3,500 KIA (from memory). As Ryan showed us with the Op Order, this has been a very well planned operation. It is fair to think HAMAS may have anticipated IDF incursion into Gaza and have some surprises in store.
Hopefully Israel doesn't make the same mistake Ukraine seemingly made in taking too long to perform their offensive thus enabling the defender more time to fortify.
Yes, they’re murdered, killed illegally. Israel answers to NO ONE, not even themselves when it comes to killing Palestinians. They harp on about Hamas wanting the destruction of Israel but the tiniest bit of research and you will see all the horrific actions Israel employs on Palestinians day after day for decades. War crimes investigations they refuse to co-operate with, children they lock up without charge, they blindfold them, gag them bind them, imprison them and all for the genius crime of stone throwing - and that’s the lucky ones, many they murder by simply shooting them. Then of course the lies they tell, the lies about deaths they often provide so called proof it was not them only for months later following 3rd party investigations they eventually admit they killed the person ( when the spotlight is off them) all of this is out there if people can be bothered to look, if the media were not so lazy to just accept.
Sources - here goes, 96% of deaths since 2008 Palestinian and 4% Israeli but valid up to 7th October - I expect when Israel finally Finnish this slaughter it will still stand at 20/1 mhich means I fully expect more than 25,000 palestinians to die and none of this factors in the deaths caused by disease from lack of water, sewage, bodies decaying in demolished buildings
That technical advantage plays a part but lets not forget the animosity that exists between both sides. While neither have clean hands, there is a lot of evidence the IDF have a deep rooted contempt for the Palestinian born from a cultural feeling of superiority. I base this on observations made, information received and facts known. I worked for the Sydney Board of Deputies during the first Gulf War securing Synagogues and Jewish schools and the arrogance and contempt was wide spread. I've also worked for a Masjid and there was pretty much the same mindset. Transfer this over to Israel and Palestine and multiply it by however much, then factor in the tech advantage and authority/control factor of the IDF and you can start to see who has the upper hand. Murder? Sometimes I am sure it is intentional, both ways but overall just a result of the politics and violence.
The thing is, Ashley, both sides are semitic people.There is a cultural (?) anomaly in the DNA of the people of the Middle East that has them behaving how they do. Look at the sheer chaos when there is an 'event'. Be it a wedding (firing int he air) or a funeral or a mass casualty event... they carry on like headless chooks. Now compare this to the way the Japanese reacted after Funakoshi; how orderly and disciplined they were lining up for relief supplies etc. Different DNA, different culture. Now my Anglo-Saxon DNA reacts differently to stressful situations and we 'whiteys' can be as cruel and nasty as any other human but, in 2023, we have layers of more humane, civilised behaviour over this basic response. They don't have the layers and that doesn;t say all semitic people are mad killers or nasty... it says the common person is more likely to respond as we see than not. As for their refusal to compromise you coudl ask yourself why should they? If they believe the land is theirs, why should they compromise? Common sense might suggest it as a smart way to resolve the problem but once you compromise on one thing, where does it end? Of course it is wrong to 'drive Israel into the sea' and so on but can you ty to see their point of view? Make no mistake the Israelis make the most of the Holocaust, an inexcusable event and they have, as a people, suffered. But that doesn't justify much of what they have done just as what they have done to the Palestinians doesn't justify murdering unarmed civilians in kibbutzes.
So if it is nuture over nature, why? Consider the environment they have lived in since 1948; generation after generation. Nothing can excuse the terrorist acts carried out by HAMAS on Oct 7. Period. But what has driven so many to believe that is the way? Murad is a Yazidi; she is not an Arab. Very different ethnologically and she is an individual and as I have said, don't judge all etc but when we are looking at stereotypes and the 'common person' and how the mass reacts... I'm sure there are many calm, noble and peace loving Palestinians who wouldn't dream of hurting anyone but I suggest most of them managed to migrate elsewhere. (like my G.P.) I don't have a side in this. I try to observe and analyse impartially and frankly I think both sides can be as bad as the other and common denominator for the core of the problem is religion. If people didn't inherit their religious beliefs things would be a lot less complex, for sure. (Ashley: This is the first online exchange I have had in some time where a rational discussion with differing points of view has been had without recourse to ad hominem attacks. Thank you and much respect.)
Sources - here goes, 96% of deaths since 2008 Palestinian and 4% Israeli but valid up to 7th October - I expect when Israel finally Finnish this slaughter it will still stand at 20/1 mhich means I fully expect more than 25,000 palestinians to die and none of this factors in the deaths caused by disease from lack of water, sewage, bodies decaying in demolished buildings
You espouse a genuine, heartfelt, but I feel an over simplified suggestion for the people caught up in the geopolitics of this conflict. I totally agree with what you are saying in general terms as to how individuals should look at their situation but there are many factors at play here. Foremost would be religion and the problems that imposes on all who inherit a specific belief system. Then ther are the cultural and community boundaries and pressures. Following that the imposed problems by outside forces (ie the Israelis) and then there are the basic, mundane day-to-day realities of paying for everything. Palestinians face very real limitations. One could argue had the Israelis not moved there )or moved back if you prefer) then this wouldn't have happened. This is arguably correct. But they did. The old saying 'if your mother was your father you wouldn't be here' holds true. So many ifs but bottom line is whatever the cause or conclusion, too many people will suffer once again. BTW, so glad you took charge and changed your life. I have 5 daughters and a young son and I hope I have instilled in them the common sense and courage to know when to go and to get on with it when its time to do so.
Perhaps you would see things differently if you had been born into a prison like Gaza. GO south? To the Sinai desert? As a parent myself I can't begin to imagine the choices you would have to make. Of course their well being comes first but if you aren;t allowed out and you have nowhere to go anyway, what else can you do? I have written how their mindset is different to ours; they think differently to begin with. They don;t have the advantages we have and they are oppressed; both by the Israelis and their own political leaders.
Great perspectives. The problem I see is Israel will be expected to follow the rules of warfare, whereas Hamas will not. Terrorists only like rules when they can exploit those rules to their advantage. Ceasefires will be called for, but like Tet in 1968, only one side will abide by them.
The press has already found Israel at fault immediately after taking Hamas account of the rocket hitting al-Ahli Hospital's parking lot without questioning the veracity of the allegations. The press makes money on negative stories and what's more negative than a middle east war with Israel being made to be the bad guys?
The US gets very sterilized versions of violence via social media and the conventional media. Dead bodies become magically pixilated without the other senses being assaulted with the horrible smells, sounds and tastes of death. Gone are the horror that war and indiscriminate violence bring.
Will we be able to trust the casualty counts provided by either side???
There is precedent to show both sides manipulate data to advantage; have done for decades. As for the sterilized coverage, we get warnings that some scenes might be distressing when they pull a cat out of a drain! How soft are we? Why? Is this to protect our sensibilities or to program and control us? Oh, a bomb went off... having been there, done that like I imagine you have we both know it is nothing like what is shown and yes, that's even without the unforgettable odours. Why not show everything, at least after kiddies bedtime? Because they want us to think 'that's horrible' but not really horrible because if it happens here how can our authorities protect us? It is all about making us compliant and trusting.
Soft enough to be normalized to mass violence within our own country.
I'll take your word for it; personally I have little interest in viewing the carnage. The Palestinians will post more simply because of the asymetric nature of the conflict. They don't have billions in military aid, Apache helicopters or JDAM bombs. They have to use everything they have to wage their war. If only they could shrug off the very semitic attitude to killing anything and everything (and keep in mind both sides are semitic people) they might garner more empathy. At the moment it is all for Israel, basically giving them carte blanche to do as they please in Gaza.
The longer Israel takes preparing the more confident I feel about whatever they will do.
Urban battle, I think casualties will be a lot higher for every single participant. The Hamas fighters that are going to stay will fight to death. When humanitarian aid will follow back so will weapons. So causality rate will be a lot higher for all parties. The world won’t stomach it and the operation will end in stand still because of political pressure.
Honestly why lose any Israeli lives? Give them 48 hours to let the women and children flee and then go full Dresden or Tokyo on Gaza. Send the civilians to Qatar.
Qatar won't have them and hasn't taken a single Arab refugee; not from Syria, Iraq or Palestine. Palestinians currently in Qatar are there on work visas. The UAE hasn't taken a single refugee either, or Saudi Arabia. Why? Because they know it will cause a lot of internal strife as we see in Europe. Yet nothing is said by the soft headed lefties in Europe about this; because they know it won't change anything. So they hit their own governments and so Europeans have to pay and put up with a lot of crap while the rich ones that benefit from the chaos in the Middle East get richer and never have to be anywhere near a refugee. And why should civilians who probably never actually voted for HAMAS have to leave? How about the hard core HAMAS ring that causes the trouble have a fight to the death with Bibi and his boys? Make good pay TV and just as likely to happen as an orderly evacuation of civilians.
No Arab country will allow Palestinians in their countries
Israel needs to follow Egypt’s example, just flood the tunnels with seawater and/or sewage.
I expect that the human costs to the IDF and the civilization population will be significant. That's my polite version. To be blunt; this is going to be a bloodbath. Israel is already viewed by its neighbors and the rest of the world as the bad guys in this conflict. We're it up to me; I would bulldozer Gaza into the Mediterranean Sea, and sow the land with salt so that nothing could grow there.
The IDF may suffer more casualties. In the 2006 Summer War against Hezbollah the IDF casualty rate was disproportionately high. I can't recall precise numbers but the new tactics and Iranian supplied AT weapons meant the Merkava tanks were getting knocked off at an alarming rate. The casualty rate was the equivalent of the US Army losing 3,500 KIA (from memory). As Ryan showed us with the Op Order, this has been a very well planned operation. It is fair to think HAMAS may have anticipated IDF incursion into Gaza and have some surprises in store.
I sincerely hope you were right in your original assessment. Which is bad enough. But I’m afraid it really might be more.
Do I get points for saying first 😂
Hopefully Israel doesn't make the same mistake Ukraine seemingly made in taking too long to perform their offensive thus enabling the defender more time to fortify.
I thought hour numbers sounded low, it seems that Hamas is going all in this time and welcome massive casualties on both sides
History shows that for every single Israeli death at least 20 Palestinians are murdered. All the UN stats back this up
Murdered...?
Yes, they’re murdered, killed illegally. Israel answers to NO ONE, not even themselves when it comes to killing Palestinians. They harp on about Hamas wanting the destruction of Israel but the tiniest bit of research and you will see all the horrific actions Israel employs on Palestinians day after day for decades. War crimes investigations they refuse to co-operate with, children they lock up without charge, they blindfold them, gag them bind them, imprison them and all for the genius crime of stone throwing - and that’s the lucky ones, many they murder by simply shooting them. Then of course the lies they tell, the lies about deaths they often provide so called proof it was not them only for months later following 3rd party investigations they eventually admit they killed the person ( when the spotlight is off them) all of this is out there if people can be bothered to look, if the media were not so lazy to just accept.
Sources - here goes, 96% of deaths since 2008 Palestinian and 4% Israeli but valid up to 7th October - I expect when Israel finally Finnish this slaughter it will still stand at 20/1 mhich means I fully expect more than 25,000 palestinians to die and none of this factors in the deaths caused by disease from lack of water, sewage, bodies decaying in demolished buildings
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/18/the-israel-palestine-conflict-has-claimed-14000-lives-since-1987
https://www.statista.com/chart/16516/israeli-palestinian-casualties-by-in-gaza-and-the-west-bank/
https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties
That technical advantage plays a part but lets not forget the animosity that exists between both sides. While neither have clean hands, there is a lot of evidence the IDF have a deep rooted contempt for the Palestinian born from a cultural feeling of superiority. I base this on observations made, information received and facts known. I worked for the Sydney Board of Deputies during the first Gulf War securing Synagogues and Jewish schools and the arrogance and contempt was wide spread. I've also worked for a Masjid and there was pretty much the same mindset. Transfer this over to Israel and Palestine and multiply it by however much, then factor in the tech advantage and authority/control factor of the IDF and you can start to see who has the upper hand. Murder? Sometimes I am sure it is intentional, both ways but overall just a result of the politics and violence.
The thing is, Ashley, both sides are semitic people.There is a cultural (?) anomaly in the DNA of the people of the Middle East that has them behaving how they do. Look at the sheer chaos when there is an 'event'. Be it a wedding (firing int he air) or a funeral or a mass casualty event... they carry on like headless chooks. Now compare this to the way the Japanese reacted after Funakoshi; how orderly and disciplined they were lining up for relief supplies etc. Different DNA, different culture. Now my Anglo-Saxon DNA reacts differently to stressful situations and we 'whiteys' can be as cruel and nasty as any other human but, in 2023, we have layers of more humane, civilised behaviour over this basic response. They don't have the layers and that doesn;t say all semitic people are mad killers or nasty... it says the common person is more likely to respond as we see than not. As for their refusal to compromise you coudl ask yourself why should they? If they believe the land is theirs, why should they compromise? Common sense might suggest it as a smart way to resolve the problem but once you compromise on one thing, where does it end? Of course it is wrong to 'drive Israel into the sea' and so on but can you ty to see their point of view? Make no mistake the Israelis make the most of the Holocaust, an inexcusable event and they have, as a people, suffered. But that doesn't justify much of what they have done just as what they have done to the Palestinians doesn't justify murdering unarmed civilians in kibbutzes.
So if it is nuture over nature, why? Consider the environment they have lived in since 1948; generation after generation. Nothing can excuse the terrorist acts carried out by HAMAS on Oct 7. Period. But what has driven so many to believe that is the way? Murad is a Yazidi; she is not an Arab. Very different ethnologically and she is an individual and as I have said, don't judge all etc but when we are looking at stereotypes and the 'common person' and how the mass reacts... I'm sure there are many calm, noble and peace loving Palestinians who wouldn't dream of hurting anyone but I suggest most of them managed to migrate elsewhere. (like my G.P.) I don't have a side in this. I try to observe and analyse impartially and frankly I think both sides can be as bad as the other and common denominator for the core of the problem is religion. If people didn't inherit their religious beliefs things would be a lot less complex, for sure. (Ashley: This is the first online exchange I have had in some time where a rational discussion with differing points of view has been had without recourse to ad hominem attacks. Thank you and much respect.)
Sources - here goes, 96% of deaths since 2008 Palestinian and 4% Israeli but valid up to 7th October - I expect when Israel finally Finnish this slaughter it will still stand at 20/1 mhich means I fully expect more than 25,000 palestinians to die and none of this factors in the deaths caused by disease from lack of water, sewage, bodies decaying in demolished buildings
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/05/18/the-israel-palestine-conflict-has-claimed-14000-lives-since-1987
https://www.statista.com/chart/16516/israeli-palestinian-casualties-by-in-gaza-and-the-west-bank/
https://www.ochaopt.org/data/casualties
I think the first 2 days could be double that. It all depends if hamas also start killing there own, I think is likely
A power struggle is possible.
You espouse a genuine, heartfelt, but I feel an over simplified suggestion for the people caught up in the geopolitics of this conflict. I totally agree with what you are saying in general terms as to how individuals should look at their situation but there are many factors at play here. Foremost would be religion and the problems that imposes on all who inherit a specific belief system. Then ther are the cultural and community boundaries and pressures. Following that the imposed problems by outside forces (ie the Israelis) and then there are the basic, mundane day-to-day realities of paying for everything. Palestinians face very real limitations. One could argue had the Israelis not moved there )or moved back if you prefer) then this wouldn't have happened. This is arguably correct. But they did. The old saying 'if your mother was your father you wouldn't be here' holds true. So many ifs but bottom line is whatever the cause or conclusion, too many people will suffer once again. BTW, so glad you took charge and changed your life. I have 5 daughters and a young son and I hope I have instilled in them the common sense and courage to know when to go and to get on with it when its time to do so.
Anyone who names their security firm after the greatest of man's best friends, the corgi, has to know wtf he's talking about.
Perhaps you would see things differently if you had been born into a prison like Gaza. GO south? To the Sinai desert? As a parent myself I can't begin to imagine the choices you would have to make. Of course their well being comes first but if you aren;t allowed out and you have nowhere to go anyway, what else can you do? I have written how their mindset is different to ours; they think differently to begin with. They don;t have the advantages we have and they are oppressed; both by the Israelis and their own political leaders.