I'm wondering if the drone operator was following the retreating soldiers for intelligence gathering (where are they going and what's at that location) for future strikes.
I did see a video earlier, that showed a tank (Ukrainian), firing on a trench at almost point blank range. You then see the Russians running away (and the commentary actually says "Run away, run away!"). However, the Ukrainians do not fire at the retreating Russians. The reason why, as I've been told, is that the Ukrainians want the Russians to know they will not be shot if they are retreating. If they just shoot the people running away, they will fight harder. If the Russians know that if they are retreating they will be allowed to do so, they might fight with less "do or die" fervor, and surrender. Also one soldier appears to be wounded, unable to keep up with his fellow soldiers. He falls into a shallow shell hole. I've been told, he will be treated well by the medics of the Ukraine and go to hospital. The argument online was "Why are the Ukrainians doing this, when the Russians are shooting all retreating Ukrainians, and often shooting the injured instead of helping them?" My point was, in the long run, and short run, doing the right thing to the enemy, and NOT shooting them in the back or when wounded, will win over more democracies and also the Russian soldier who will quickly figure out who the bad guys really are. Not the Wagner group, but they also are out for themselves, and they don't get paid if they die. So they will also be more likely to retreat is they know it means they stay alive. What do you think? (yes late night internet fighting by people with no experience!)
Submission of the group is highly likely especially if they were surprised and not expecting it. This could have been a command and/or gun shots going off. Of course this is based on minimal video evidence and no context, as our host points out.
Again, a most informative analysis of the situation.
This is pure speculation on my part, but is it possible the "blockers" were Chechen? I'm not well versed on the Russian-Chechen war/history, but it always seemed very suspect to me that a country that went through a long brutal war and history filled with conflicts would magically become allies after being defeated not too long ago. I know some of the Chechens fight for Ukraine, but I just feel like if I were Russian I would be very weary of having "Pro-Russian" Chechens behind me, as it just seems like there is a lot of bad blood between them.
Edit: As for the drone coverage/clarity. Is it possible that was a military grade drone that's less susceptible to EW and has the ability to zoom significantly more than the commercial ones? Ukraine could be trying to follow retreating soldiers via drones to see where they go, especially if that drone can watch from a distance.
You are right. Chechens fighting on the Russian side are part of the so-called Rosgvardiya, which is subordinate to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. It's not even the Russian army (as far as I know).
in bahkmut there were often 3 layers. the front conscripts or convicts the next layer blocking and another layer blocking the blockers. the first layer was used as human mine clearing. there is a short video of the ukrainian commander of an artillery team ( call sign witch) saying how the enemy would use the first layer to run through the mine fields that they had layed to get to the ukrainian positions.
Blocking detachments were SOP in the Soviet Army (see: Inside the Soviet Army, Col Viktor Suvorov). Penal Battalions were used in the attack at the front, followed by KGB battaltions who kept the Penal Battalions moving forward, followed by the regular army. In the Russian/Soviet Army brutality and inhumanity is a feature, not a bug.
It is possible the "blocking" group was trying to just apprehend. It does seem like the front two had weapons and maybe pulled them up toward the "blockers" which is a great way to get shot. You may be right about the others submitting after being told to get on the ground.
I completely missed the others dropping to the ground like that. I assumed they had been "shot" and dismissed the video as fake with bad acting. Solid analysis, Ryan. Thank you
I'm wondering if the drone operator was following the retreating soldiers for intelligence gathering (where are they going and what's at that location) for future strikes.
I did see a video earlier, that showed a tank (Ukrainian), firing on a trench at almost point blank range. You then see the Russians running away (and the commentary actually says "Run away, run away!"). However, the Ukrainians do not fire at the retreating Russians. The reason why, as I've been told, is that the Ukrainians want the Russians to know they will not be shot if they are retreating. If they just shoot the people running away, they will fight harder. If the Russians know that if they are retreating they will be allowed to do so, they might fight with less "do or die" fervor, and surrender. Also one soldier appears to be wounded, unable to keep up with his fellow soldiers. He falls into a shallow shell hole. I've been told, he will be treated well by the medics of the Ukraine and go to hospital. The argument online was "Why are the Ukrainians doing this, when the Russians are shooting all retreating Ukrainians, and often shooting the injured instead of helping them?" My point was, in the long run, and short run, doing the right thing to the enemy, and NOT shooting them in the back or when wounded, will win over more democracies and also the Russian soldier who will quickly figure out who the bad guys really are. Not the Wagner group, but they also are out for themselves, and they don't get paid if they die. So they will also be more likely to retreat is they know it means they stay alive. What do you think? (yes late night internet fighting by people with no experience!)
Submission of the group is highly likely especially if they were surprised and not expecting it. This could have been a command and/or gun shots going off. Of course this is based on minimal video evidence and no context, as our host points out.
Again, a most informative analysis of the situation.
Looks real to me too
This looks pretty damn real to me.
This is pure speculation on my part, but is it possible the "blockers" were Chechen? I'm not well versed on the Russian-Chechen war/history, but it always seemed very suspect to me that a country that went through a long brutal war and history filled with conflicts would magically become allies after being defeated not too long ago. I know some of the Chechens fight for Ukraine, but I just feel like if I were Russian I would be very weary of having "Pro-Russian" Chechens behind me, as it just seems like there is a lot of bad blood between them.
Edit: As for the drone coverage/clarity. Is it possible that was a military grade drone that's less susceptible to EW and has the ability to zoom significantly more than the commercial ones? Ukraine could be trying to follow retreating soldiers via drones to see where they go, especially if that drone can watch from a distance.
You are right. Chechens fighting on the Russian side are part of the so-called Rosgvardiya, which is subordinate to the Ministry of Internal Affairs. It's not even the Russian army (as far as I know).
in bahkmut there were often 3 layers. the front conscripts or convicts the next layer blocking and another layer blocking the blockers. the first layer was used as human mine clearing. there is a short video of the ukrainian commander of an artillery team ( call sign witch) saying how the enemy would use the first layer to run through the mine fields that they had layed to get to the ukrainian positions.
Blocking detachments were SOP in the Soviet Army (see: Inside the Soviet Army, Col Viktor Suvorov). Penal Battalions were used in the attack at the front, followed by KGB battaltions who kept the Penal Battalions moving forward, followed by the regular army. In the Russian/Soviet Army brutality and inhumanity is a feature, not a bug.
They would have been better off surrendering to the Ukrainians, they would have been treated with some humanity.
We lack important context. For example, the unit may have been considered unreliable for some reason and thus in need of special attention.
War is horrible, Russians are worse
Thank you for your hard work good Sir, love how you follow the data..
I don't smoke, but I'll raise a glass ...
...this is what barbarians do; what barbarians have always done.
It's what humans have always done. Most of us these days just try to do better at least.
It is possible the "blocking" group was trying to just apprehend. It does seem like the front two had weapons and maybe pulled them up toward the "blockers" which is a great way to get shot. You may be right about the others submitting after being told to get on the ground.
Looked to me like they hit the ground when the rifle was fired, but I wasn't wearing my glasses either.
I'm disappointed that you know enough about the Jersey Shore to pull a clip.
I completely missed the others dropping to the ground like that. I assumed they had been "shot" and dismissed the video as fake with bad acting. Solid analysis, Ryan. Thank you