Where Will Russia Store Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Belarus?
This whole nuclear weapons thing is driving me MAD.
There’s been talk about Russia placing tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, This actually required a change to the Belarussian constitution, back in February and the construction of secure nuclear magazines supposedly began shortly afterwards.
It’s unclear where the weapons might be stationed, so let’s take a look at where the weapons might go.
The Belorussian Air Force has 6 major military bases. (The KML file for Google Earth is available on my website.)
Minsk Air Base - 53°46'23.5"N 27°34'33.7"E
Lida Air Base 53°52'40.0"N 25°22'23.0"E
Ross Air Base 53°18'15.0"N 24°22'02.0"E
Bereza Air Base 52°55’91.0”N 24°89’32.69”E
Pruzhany Air Base 52°58’40.6”N 24°37’95.1”E
Baranovichi Air Base 53°05'07.0"N 26°02'08.0"E
The Belorussian Air Force operates:
Roughly 25 or so SU-25s, a close air support aircraft that is the Soviet era analog to the American A-10. (Note, Wikipedia says 67, but I don’t believe those numbers just from counting platforms myself.
Roughly 30 Mig 29s, a multirole fighter which is the Soviet era analog to the American F-16.
Roughly 30 Su-24s all-weather bombers held in reserve which are probably maintained at a low state or readiness. Is is the Soviet analog to the American F-111.
Roughly 20 Su-27s which have been retired and placed in storage. This is widely regarded as a very capable air-superiority fighter and the Soviet analog to the American F-15.
Theoretically, the Su-25, Su-24 and Mig-29 can carry nuclear weapons.
Realistically, only the Su-25 has been maintained well enough for it to be used as a nuclear delivery platform. The sources are muddled, but either Russia has provided nuclear capable Su-25s from its own stocks, they have upgraded Belarussian Su-25s or a mixture of both. Or maybe they’ve done neither?
So where would Russia keep its nuclear weapons if they placed them in Belarus?
First off, the touchstone for this would be the nuclear storage facility at Engels Air Base in Russia at 51.423729N, 46.257676E. If you want to build a nuclear weapon magazine, it’s going to look something like this.
Here we have a bunker with one access point, two security layers with clear fields of fire all on a military base that is in the middle of nowhere.
So let’s go through each of Belarus’s airfields.
The first stop is Minsk Airbase 53°46'23.5"N 27°34'33.7"E.
If this place sounds familiar, it’s because it was penetrated by a drone, which landed on a Russian Mainstay AWACS aircraft.
There may be an old nuclear magazine at 53.7791102N, 27.5452876E, but there are no security gates on the access road and the entire area is far too close to the highway, so it probably just contains conventional munitions.
Next is Lida Air Base 53°52'40.0"N 25°22'23.0"E.
This is Belorussia’s premier Su-25 Frogfoot base. so it’s a pretty good candidate.
Note that I only count 19 Su-25s:
Although some may be in these bunkers here:
It has a conventional magazine here:
And space to build nuclear magazines here:
With the RED area land the airbase already owns and the BLUE area a better location with land the airfield would have to acquire or lease from whatever farmer owns it. If the airbase owns that land and farmers are just leasing it, the BLUE area would be a better choice. So Lida is definitely in the running, especially since the Su-25s are already based here and the base looks well maintained.
I tried purchasing satellite footage to see if any construction had started, but the recent images available have cloud cover.
So let’s look at Ross Airbase 53°18'15.0"N 24°22'02.0"E/
This place looks abandoned and overgrown. It would take a lot of money to get this back into fighting shape. I think we can discount his place.
So let’s look at Bereza Air Base - 52°55’91.0”N 24°89’32.69”E.
This looks promising. It’s in the middle of nowhere and has what might be an old nuclear bunker, although it looks overgrown, it shouldn’t take much to bring this back to life.
Although the condition of the runways and lack of planes on the flight line lead me to believe that this base is no longer used for flight operations.
Pruzhany Air Base is next - 52°58’40.6”N 24°37’95.1”E. This is about 20 miles (32km) to the east of Bereza. This base looks abandoned as well.
The hangers are long gone and the runway is questionable.
Finally there is Baranovichi (air base) 53°05'07.0"N 26°02'08.0"E. Now we’re talking.
If the woods can be cut down, the area in RED below would be a great place for a nuclear magazine.
So I bought some satellite footage. Now, quick note. Satellite footage is about $250 per image and you need to buy multiple images, so I have to start by saying that if you are a subscriber, thank you. If you are not, consider subscribing. I promise I won’t spend the money on liquor.
As of March 19th, the last day satellite footage was available, there has been no cutting or construction in this area:
So I bought footage of the same area from 2/6/2023 to see if there was a difference that might be missing.
Doesn’t look like it. They didn’t even plow that area, which leads me to believe that it’s unused or abandoned.
I did notice a few interesting things, though. I believe these are Russian Su-35s
Why? Because you can see lines in the snow where crew chiefs probably trudged out in the cold to check on the aircraft.
And if we look at footage from just a month later, some of the aircraft have moved.
This lines up with Russia sending 12 Su-35s to Belarus for exercises back in February. As far as I know, the Su-35 is not nuclear capable…
…but the Su-34 certainly is. If Russia decides to base nuclear-capable Su-34s in Belarus, it will probably be at Baranovichi.
In fact as of 10/15/2022, guess who paid Baranovichi a visit?
Russian Su-34s. You can tell by the wide “death duck” nose for the crew’s side-by side cockpit.
So all that being said, we should watch for nuclear magazines being built in Lida or Baranovichi.
I will revisit this in a few months to see if my prediction is correct.
Ryan:
Interesting analysis. It would likewise be interesting to read what some of your former instructors and commanders (as well as the present-day Pentagon, et al) think of what you're providing to us. From TOW missile shooter to military intelligence savant, is a pretty good upgrade.
I can see that my subscription fees are being well spent on satellite imagery and not booze (although I'm unsure as to whether or not you are blowing big bucks on cigars). In any case, your various analyses have convinced me to up the amount of my monthly subscription payment.
As long as I am waxing eloquent - another point: Proxy wars - especially artificially prolonged proxy wars - are the most unethical, immoral wars of all -- not for those doing the actual fighting/sacrificing/dying, but for those who for their own perceived self-benefit, only partially finance/support continued fighting amongst the belligerents in lieu of either not getting involved in the first place or else wise providing all the necessary resources up front to get the war fought in a quick and decisive manner with as little bloodshed as possible.
While I'm thinking about it and as much as I hate (detest is too weak a word) brutal Putin along with his filthy oligarchs, committing an act of war by blowing up Russian gas lines (and directly hurting a Nato ally in the process) is the detestable act of a cowardly, idiotic Presidential Administration.
Molon Labe!
“I promise I won’t spend the money on liquor.” Damn, that’s WHY I send you money every month!! 😂😂