No, US weapons bound for Ukraine are not ending up in Mexico. There are a few reasons for this:
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If 50% of weapons sent to Ukraine were being diverted to Mexico, that would mean things like M1 Abrams tanks, Patriot missile batteries, and HIMARS launchers were showing up in cartel hands. That’s clearly not happening.
If any weapons were to be smuggled, they would likely be small arms or crew-served weapons, not advanced weapon systems like Patriots or tanks. The viral claim about cartel members having a Javelin was debunked—the launcher in question was actually an inert AT-4 trainer that can be bought legally in the U.S. My video about the topic is here.
After 2014, Ukraine underwent significant anti-corruption reforms to meet Western standards and align with Europe. While corruption remains a challenge, Ukraine knows that excessive corruption would threaten continued Western military aid, providing strong incentives to prevent weapons from being sold off.
U.S. Enhanced End-Use Monitoring (EEUM) Compliance Issues Are Administrative, Not Criminal. Example: Stinger gripstock serial numbers were sent via email in 2022 but not entered into the database until 2023—this was a U.S. bureaucratic failure, not Ukrainian theft.
The easiest source of weapons for Mexican cartels is the United States, not a war zone across the Atlantic. If a cartel member wants an M4 or AR-15, they can buy it from U.S. straw purchasers instead of paying exorbitant costs to import it from a war zone.
Cartels Make Their Own Weapons such as Narcotanks and they have started using drones.
If large amounts of Ukrainian weapons were ending up in Mexico, Mexican authorities would have serial numbers from captured weapons. Serial numbers and lot numbers can trace a weapon’s origins, but no credible evidence has surfaced linking cartel weapons to Ukraine.
Cartels Have No Incentive to Risk U.S. Retaliation. If a cartel were caught with advanced U.S. weapons from Ukraine (like Stingers or Javelins), the U.S. would send special operations forces to hunt them down. Buying high-profile weapons would invite a military response, which the cartels want to avoid.
The original video from Tucker Carlson is here.
The PDF From the Inspector General is here:
The Jennifer Love Hewitt “Boobs” article is here.
The data on corruption in Ukraine is here.
The Wall Street Journal Article on Weapons Trafficking to Mexico is here.
The Army Times article on 1,303 stolen weapons is here.
The Army Times article on military weapons used in crimes is here.
If you like this video, please watch my video on Animals in Warfare. I’m really proud of it.
