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Robert Gardner's avatar

Great post, Ryan, always great to hear basic analysis from somebody who actually knows what he is talking about. I think you may be limiting yourself in talking down the possibility of regional warfare to the actual attempts of one side to invade or directly attack the other beyond the use of missiles or drones.

In one sense, they are already in a regional war with all the proxies doing the dying, and we would not want any other country to get involved or anything to happen that would screw up the oil business. But your point is well taken.

Some years ago I spent about 40 days in Iran and the majority of the population there that I met had no particular animosity towards the US (even on Death to America Day, during which I stayed in my hotel room). Many Iranians have family in the States and yearn for a normalization that might improve their economic condition. So the idea that many Americans have that there are a bunch of blood thirsty Islamic nuts waving swords in the streets of Tehran is a fallacy (though they are there in the leadership). I think both sides were pretty careful to keep the reprisals powerful enough to appease their own hard liners, but modest enough that it would not get out of hand. Neither side wants a big war, and as you point out, probably can’t make much of one if they wanted to. Maybe we have Biden to thank for that, but more likely Bibi makes up his own mind. Thanks again for the useful post.

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Jordan Waxman's avatar

The 100+ aircraft included some for the 669 search and rescue extraction team.

669 is considered to be at the very top of the IDFs elite units alongside the more internationally famous Sayaret Matcal, Shayetet 13, Shaldag, etc. I'm curious how their inclusion in the mission as well as the high level of this team compares to other militaries.

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