Initial thoughts about the Attempted Assassination on President Trump
Initial thoughts about the Attempted Assassination on President Trump
Not a chance YouTube will let me talk about this
I woke up this morning to roughly 20 emails asking me to “breakdown” the attempted assignation of former President Trump. I am not an expert in protective details, but I know a few things about firearms.
Based on satellite data it looks like this was about a ~150m / 167 yard shot. I think in yards and calculate wind drift in yards. I am also not a sniper or a competitive shooter. In this case, I don’t believe the assassin was either. Location is roughly 40°51'26.74"N 79°58'13.33"W.
Before I start talking about this subject, remember that one spectator died and one spectator has their life forever altered. Don’t forget that there was nothing about this event that should be praised.
This was not a particularly difficult shot. I’m estimating 167 yards from the tan building with the white roof to where the podium might be. Note the waving flags in the GIF below
The waving flags indicate a Beaufort scale of 2 or roughly between 4-7 miles per hour.
A 5.56 bullet drifts approximately 1.1″ at 100 yards, 5″ at 200 yards, so we're talking drift of 2.2" at that range. A person with just a little bit of training should have been able to hit a man-sized target at that range even with the wind drift and even on a rifle without optics. I cannot tell from this still image whether the rifle in question had optics. This should have been a “easy” shot. I don’t believe that this particular assassin had any kind of training. Also note that optics won’t matter if the rifle was not properly sighted.
Rifles are not typically accurate out of the box. They must be “zeroed.” This is a process of picking a specific distance and aligning the sights so that the bullet is centered on the sights at that distance.
If a rifle is not properly “zeroed” or sighted in, it will not be accurate. An inexperienced shooter may not know that a rifle needs to be “zeroed.” If most of a shooter’s weapons experience came from video games, they might not understand the zeroing process.
Note the Army typically “zeros” its rifles at 25 meters since the bullet will cross the sights at 25 meters and again at 250 meters. In the case below, near zero is 25 meters. Far zero is 250 meters.
Its seems like the counter-snipers were on a bar roof to the right of the podium if you were facing the podium. This means a shot through trees at the assassin. Not an easy shot.
The Secret Service immediately surrounded the former president. The professionalism of these officers is phenomenal.
For context, below is a gif of the attempted Ronald Reagan assignation. Watch how quickly they tackle the shooter.
A lot will be made of the picture below. This is not a bullet, it is a vapor trail. This happens during very humid days where the supersonic bullet condenses the air around it into water vapor. The bullet is a few inches in front of this condensation.
Misinformation is already developing around the notion that the shot was staged or the weapon used was a BB Gun or Paintball gun.
In the coming days, be careful about sharing something if it makes you feel emotional. You may be spreading misinformation.
It’s difficult to the point of impossibility to feel sympathy or empathy for the being who loves Putin but hates American democracy. Sorry. I’m one of millions of Americans who can at best muster a “meh.” I feel badly for what’s left of our political institutions. MAGA has already started fund raising on the event. The only loser in this is American democracy, rule of law and our once resilient institutions.
This is absolutely because of Trump’s own behavior cultivating exactly what he wanted to cultivate but this time it was aimed at him. He’s a rapist, felon, and traitorous insurrectionist. He’s a leader of stochastic terrorism and has been playing “I’m not touching you” games to elicit responses. The assassin is to blame for the death and damage, and Trump is to blame for creating the political and social climate for violence. Calling for violence for protesters/rally disrupters, extrajudicial executions, other forms of “let’s hurt them” type of attitude. I’ve been expecting this to happen for a long time and am not at all surprised by these events. Anyone who has been paying attention shouldn’t be surprised by this tragedy. Trump isn’t just a victim, he’s complicit in his own injuries and the death and damage of the other victims. Fuck Trump. I hope he never gets assassinated so he experiences the horrors of deteriorating from his obesity, overall poor health, and drug abuse. I hope he lives another 20 miserable, decrepit years. The extremism of the right is on display with dangerous individuals making threats on air by saying “the revolution will remain bloodless as long as the left allows it to be.” They are literally playing the “I’m not touching you” game to elicit responses to then point to as justification for their immoral desires and as twisted vindication for propane they’ve been pushing.
I will never implicitly trust a democrat, but I know will always actively distrust a republican. They’re self serving, stupid, and/or morally incompetent. Any altruism from the right is transactional and conditional. The right is much more homogenous than the left and so it’s much easier to lob simplistic statements and risk making generalizations. Now, though, the majority of republicans have behaved in a way that I can safely designated Republicans as default bad-faith participants in any discussion or debate until proven otherwise. It’s no longer fallacious to generalize the party and its supporters in this way.