Elbridge Colby is wrong about Russia and Nuclear Weapons
Don't give Russia "Space To Destroy."
In a nutshell, the arsenals of both the US and Russia are at parity with a slight edge to Russia when it comes to raw warheads. Although whether those warheads work is arguable. Russia does have some slightly newer delivery systems.
However, these tactics are used by people to scaremonger about Russia in the vein of "What if Russia Nukes Us" when they never quite explain what that looks like.
If you take the 5 possible scenarios of Russia using a nuclear weapon:
1. Nuclear weapons could be used to create a gap in enemy defenses and the enemy would push through the gap to break through.
2. Nuclear weapons could be used to stop an advance of an enemy force.
3. Nuclear weapons would be a good choice for destroying a command bunker that is deep underground.
4. Nuclear weapons would be a good choice for destroying an aircraft carrier battle group.
5. And nuclear weapons would be a good choice to destroy an amphibious landing or major river crossing.
The only real scenario would be #2, which would be unlikely since Ukraine has not been able to conduct a breakthrough.
Elbridge Colby isn't a bad guy. I'm just going to chalk this up to him being more concerned about China.
The original tweet is here.
The world is full of experts on nuclear weapons and the political decision making process to deploy them. Their internet bio says so.
Dude doesn't understand mutual assured destruction - MAD. Escalation to "dominate" is impossible.
Once you get to a certain level of arms, more bombs don't help. You are just making rubble bounce. Both the US and Russia are perfectly capable of rendering each other smoking ruins and you don't need any more than that. Even China has that ability.
Fascinating piece, Ryan. I admire how you can pull this information causally out of your butt without raising a sweat and make it all accessible in the context of common sense, based on your experience and access to information. It is true that the mention of nuclear war is an emotional hot button to most of us, so this kind of explanation is really valuable. I genuinely hope you really know what you are talking about. Thanks for doing this.