Did a Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal fall into the Dnipro River near Kyiv?
Let's science the heck out of this!
The math calculations are below as a PDF:
The location of the viewer is at: 50°27'37.90"N / 30°34'59.59"E
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I appreciate the effort but I think you made a few mistakes.
1) You can't compute the average newton's of impact without knowing the length of time it took to decelerate [1]
2) The average Newtons of force during the impact is meaningless in this context. That missle won't completely stop until it reaches the river bottom (and even reaching terminal v in water will take many seconds) so it's going to be quite a low average because the divisor is so large.
3) You don't know the height of water spray is a function of momentum or energy or the maximum force during deceleration or something else.
4) If the height of water spray is a function of the total energy (plausible since I know at high speeds crater size is a function of energy) it should generate 16 times the spray of a similarly weighted diver entering the water at 1/4th the speed. I can't eyeball that to tell if it's within that range.
5) If instead the water height is a function of the momentum transfered over some critical time period you start having to solve some nasty diffeqs.
1: I suspect the calculator you used is assuming a car impacting an immovable object and using facts about the car crumple zone to compute the average force. Whatever it assumes won't be valid for a streamlined missle penetrating water.
I think you have an error in your calculation on how high the water flew: if it were 58 meters, it would be above the level of the camera, which you calculated as around 38 meters.