Correction to the Correction on How Israel Can Attack Iran
I accidentally sent out the wrong video.
I accidentally sent out the raw, unedited correction video this afternoon. The correct one is below:
This video is in response to a few mistakes I made in the video below:
The mistakes I made:
1. I misidentified a KC-10 as a KC-135.
2. I also confused the F-22's capability of carrying Sidewinder missiles internally with the capabilities of the F-35.
3. The Israeli Air Force may have the ability to do probe-and-drogue refueling for their F-15Is or (maybe) their F-35Is. Which would unlock the tech tree for using the KC-130H and perhaps buddy stores. Giving Israel 14 total tankers instead of just 7 modified Boeing 707s.
4. Israel may not be able to attack out of Azerbaijan because it would take too long to move the equipment and Iran might counterattack Azerbaijan.
5. Israel may not be able to use submarine launched ballistic missiles or cruise missiles because the warheads may not be powerful enough.
So many things to address in your analysis that I can't ft them all here. But mostly I do want to emphasize your point that Israel generally only reveals what it has when they approve export sales. So, we know little about the weapons they've developed specifically for dealing with Iran.
The recent revelation of the Air LORA is enlightening. Now you have an aeroballistic missile with a range of somewhere between 400 and 1000km. And a 570kg warhead one version of which is a high-speed penetrator. It very likely far exceeds JASSM or cruise missiles for penetration (due to kinetic energy). I can imagine it equaling or exceeding a BLU-109. But still not enough for what we assume the protection level is on Iran's nuclear weapons infrastructure. They also have Rampage and Rocks aeroballistic missiles. The main point here is really that, excluding the nuclear weapons infrastructure penetration issue, they can reduce their need for tanker support considerably using these. And they probably have identified points in the nuclear weapons infrastructure that Air LORA can hold at risk.
Assumptions about Israeli cruise missiles are also fraught with the ASSuMe problem. All the data we have on Israeli air-launched cruise missiles is decades old. If they've deployed a 1500km range one on their submarines for nuclear strike, they could very well have an air-launched conventionally armed version with similar range.
Some time ago the IDF made a cryptic announcement about having extended the range of the F-35I. I don't know if you mentioned this or included some guesstimate in your spreadsheet. If you did, sorry I missed it. Drop tanks, conformal fuel tanks, or (apparently) genies for propulsion are in the mix.
On the bomb front they have the GBU-28, and had requested the GBU-72, though I doubt they have the later), for striking deeply buried Iranian targets. You aren't delivering 5000lb bombs with an F-35. Some version(s) of the plan have always included the F-15I.
They also have their own MPR-2000 penetrator, which is somewhere between the BLU-116 and BLU-137 in penetration. It is externally MK84 and JDAM kit-compatible, and there is some inference that it has been integrated for internal carry on the F-35I.
Israel SEAD doctrine is heavily drone-based and was the driving force in creation of suicide drones, specifically the IAI Harpy anti-radiation drone. I doubt they've ignored the need to counter Iranian air defenses.
We assume that the Jericho 2/3 (3A, 4?) missiles are all nuclear armed, which of course is because we assume Israel is an undeclared nuclear power. But there is that assume word again. Do we misread Israel's longstanding preference for using crewed fighters as being sufficiently arrogant that they wouldn't have developed and procured conventionally armed medium to intermediate range ballistic missiles to help with striking Iran? A 1000kg (Jericho 2) to 1300kg (Jericho 3) penetrator delivered at hypersonic speeds is a real possibility. And no refueling problem!
The list would kind of go on and on, with the bottom line being that we have no fucking idea what the Israelis have developed for dealing with Iran. All we know is they've been hyper focused on the problem of striking Iran's nuclear weapons infrastructure for at least a couple of decades. We are likely in for some real surprises, as are the Iranians.
Correct your mistakes? you will never work in corporate media.