Chopping Down Diseased Trees

Why China's population boom and its PLA purges are a threat to Taiwan

China is the world’s largest country in terms of population, which hovers around 1.4 billion people. However, “China’s population is forecast to decline to 1.32 billion by 2050, and then drop to nearly 50% below its current population by 2100 (771 million).”[1]

China’s population woes mirror those found in countries like Japan, South Korea, Russia, Italy, and others.[2] In 2023, China’s declining population raised alarms globally, with the country experiencing its first real decline in six decades.

Carl Minzner, writing for the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that while China’s population crisis is far from a crisis, but it could become one. Specifically, he argues China’s government has been slow to raise the official retirement level, putting pensions at risk. The country’s pro-natalist policies could backfire, resulting in even lower birthrates nationwide.[3]