Can Wagner Make a Difference in Niger?
Amateurs Study Wagner. Professionals Study Logistics.
The Major Players
On July 26th of 2023, the military of Niger organized a coup against legally elected President Mohamed Bazoum.
The coup was lead by Gen. Omar Tchiani, head of the Niger Presidential Guard.
General Tchiani is supposedly loyal to the former Niger President Mahamadou Issoufou, who was the man who made Tchiani a general.
The reason for the coup is unknown. However, one possibility is that General Tchiani is 62 years old, and President Bazoum wanted him fired. General Tchiani may have seen the writing on the wall and acted to ensure that he remained in his job,
The Country
Niger is a landlocked country located in West Africa, bordered by Algeria to the north, Libya to the northeast, Chad to the east, Nigeria and Benin to the south, Burkina Faso, and Mali to the west.
With a diverse landscape ranging from the Sahara Desert in the north to savannas and wooded areas in the south, Niger is one of the hottest and driest countries in the world.
Despite its natural resources, including uranium and mineral deposits, Niger faces significant challenges such as food insecurity, political instability, and economic development. The country's government operates as a presidential republic, but it has experienced periods of military rule and coups throughout its history.
Niger is overwhelmingly Suni Muslim (98-99%), with a small Christian minority. The constitution prohibits religious discrimination and provides for freedom of religion. The country’s military is overwhelmingly secular, and they prohibit religiously affiliated political parties. There have been tensions in the past with Christians, specifically when the French magazine Charlie Hebdo published cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. However, the government has taken measures to address these security challenges and protect religious freedom for all citizens.
Niger is actively fighting banditry and Islamic insurgency in multiple regions. The Tillaberi region, home of the capital city of Niamey has seen the most fighting between government forces and Islamic State Sahel.
The central Tahoua region has a mix of banditry and IS Shael.
The Diffa Region has a mix of Islamic State in the West African Province (ISWAP) and the Boko Haram insurgency on the shared border with Nigeria.
The Maradi region is active with bandit gangs that operate along the Nigerian border.
And finally, the uranium and gold rich mines of Agadez Region are known for cross boarder smuggling.
Only 14% of the population have access to electricity, 22% have access to the internet and about 52% have mobile phones.
Niger is a former French colony. French is the official language of business, government, the educated and urban elite. Arabic, and the local language of Hausa and Djarma are also spoken.
Foreign Forces, Bases and Locations
There is a small French and US presence in Niger for antiterrorism operations, namely operating out of three bases. The Google Earth File for the Maps below is here. The presence is roughly around 1,100 French soldiers and 1,500 US personnel.
France maintains about 1,100 troops at Air Base 101, also known as Diori Hamani International Airport, for anti-terrorism activities in the capital city Niamey. The US also has a base there. (13.482004, 2.182717)
Airbase 201 is south of the city of Agadez, Niger and its civilian airport. This airport is owned by the Niger military but operated and maintained as a US drone and cargo base. (16.954211, 8.017164)
Finally, there is Dirkou Airport, which is a remote drone base for American intelligence services that has easy access to Libya. (18.963047, 12.864765)
Niger Military Composition and Disposition
The Niger military and security forces are split into several branches and is closely modeled after French systems of organization.