Is the United States secretly preparing to draft network engineers, welders, divers and aerospace specialists for war?
Not exactly.
Free members can watch the video on YouTube:
A viral video claims “leaked documents” reveal a concerning new Selective Service plan. The documents are real—but they weren’t leaked, and they don’t prove that a draft is imminent. They describe a tabletop exercise examining how Selective Service might respond to a hypothetical war in the Pacific.
The information came from an article titled Why is the Selective Service Wargaming a ‘Special Skills’ Draft by anti-draft activist Edward Hasbrouck.
In this video, I break down what the exercise actually said, why specialized civilian skills appeared in the scenario, and how words such as “exercise,” “hypothetical” and “possible” became “leaked,” “concerning” and “will.”
A military draft is serious, and Congress should scrutinize how Selective Service plans to use that power. But planning for a national emergency is not proof that the emergency—or the draft—is coming.
The Selective Service planned for a national emergency. Megan Mykal planned for engagement. Those are not the same thing.
Documents below:
Note: I reached out for comment on my script from both Megan Mykal and Edward Hasbrouck. Megan Mykal did not respond. Edward Hasbrouck had the following comments:
(1) "the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Which is an isolationist
organization"
I'm not affiliated with the Quincy Institute. I'm a freelance journalist whose
work they sometimes publish. But they and many others would vigorously
dispute whether they can accurately be described as "isolationist". See:
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/isolationism/
(2) "Registering for Selective Service was mandatory for all American men
aged 18 to 24. Typically this involved filing out an online form or sending in a
postcard."
Wrong. The majority of registrations -- 62% in the most recent year reported --
come from driver's license applications in states that require registration with
the SSS for draft-age men to get a driver's license.
(3) "why are we making people fill out a card or a form to register for selective
service when we already have this information?"
The claim that "we already have all the information" needed for Selective
Service registration is unsupported and unsupportable, as I discuss here:
https://hasbrouck.org/draft/automatic/
(4) "This was essentially a cost-savings measure."
This claim is also unsupported (because the proposal for "automatic"
registration never went through the normal budget review process) and
unsupportable. No Federal agency has much of the needed data, data
matching is hard, and much manual verification will be required:
https://hasbrouck.org/draft/automatic/#costThe available internal documents discussing the development of this
proposal within the SSS suggest that it was a response to cratering
compliance rates (and, unstated but implicit, the growing threat that the SSS
and the sinecures of its staff would be abolished), not cost saving:
https://hasbrouck.org/draft/automatic/#origin
(5) "My main concern would be how Country A… China… would use
disinformation about a potential draft to stir up anti-war sentiment."
I'm not sure what you are saying would be "disinformation" about a possible
draft. Not only is the SSS using this scenario as represent its best guess as to
what circumstances would be most likely to lead to activation of a draft, but a
variety of policy think tanks and advocates, including witnesses before the
National Commission on Military, National, and Public Service, have said both
that a war with China over Taiwan might require might require a draft, and that
the U.S. should maintain the SSS and *increase* its readiness for a draft for
this reason.
See my analysis and links to some of these here:
https://hasbrouck.org/blog/archives/002739.html
What are you saying is "disinformation"?
(6) You say, "So does this mean that if there is ever a draft, and you’re a
Network Engineer, you have to be worried that you will get drafted “first.”
I don’t personally think so."
You are entitled to your (inexpert) opinion. But be aware that this contradicts
the consistent statements of the SSS and most other experts for *decades*
that the most likely form of draft to be activated first is the HCPDS or some
other sort of special-skills draft, not a general draft.
That doesn't mean it's likely (I don't think any form of draft is *likely*). But I
think it's more likely, and if so likely to happen sooner, than a general draft.
(7) You refer to "the lie that “Those with special skills would be conscripted
first.”"
That's not a lie. That's a description of what would happen *if* a draft were
activated in the manner that was modeled in the exercise.
Note that this doesn't say "will be". It says "would be", which implies a
conditional "would be if...". Your difference of opinion as to the likelihood that,
*if* there were a draft, it would conform to that scenario, does not mean that
those who express different opinions about that likelihood are "lying".
Calling those who make different predictions about the inherently uncertain
likelihood of possible future events "liars" is not "fact-checking".
(8) "this document does not prove that a draft is imminent."
I never said a draft is imminent. In fact, I devote several sections of my Web
site to an analysis of why draft registration matters *even if a draft is unlikely*:
https://hasbrouck.org/draft/reasons/deterrence.html
and in another article in Responsible Statecraft:
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/us-military-draft/
(9) "it certainly does not prove that the war in Iran has activated some secret
conscription plan."
Again, I never said that. Just the reverse: I have pointed out repeatedly that
planning and preparation for a draft is neither new nor a partisan initiative.
(10) "The Selective Service planned for a national emergency."
By adopting the euphemistic SSS usage of "national emergency" (which
connotes, to most people, things like natural disasters, not primarily war) to
describe a *war* that has escalated to the point where a draft is activated, you
are doing as much to "spin" and minimize the significance of this as anyone
else is to exaggerate it.
